NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

RB's Video for the January 4-5th Possible Snow Event

+2
amugs
rb924119
6 posters

Go down

RB's Video for the January 4-5th Possible Snow Event Empty RB's Video for the January 4-5th Possible Snow Event

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:02 am

Sorry it's a little long, but I tried to explain things as much as possible so everybody could understand it. I do have a few things to add/revise from the video:

1. The low-level circulation should follow the coastal thermal gradient, as that is where there will be the natural lowest pressures before the storm develops. Once the lead energy begins approaching the East Coast, that will induce the greatest pressure falls along that boundary, and should create pathway of lower pressures for the actual circulation to follow.

2. Even on the EURO Op, if you look at the vorticity structure, it still supports some degree of precipitation making it as far west as about State College, PA (if you notice when the third piece of energy starts interacting, there's a streak of energy that extends from the main negatively tilting trough on the East Coast back toward the Ohio Valley and then east-northeastward through PA - that's the back edge of the precip shield. This is also supported by the developing jet structures, where the streak over New England continues to trend stronger and further westward, which will draw and expand the precipitation shield further northwestward.

3. With what is still a progressive pattern, that argues for an earlier tilting lead trough on its own, since it will not want to keep digging/progressing on the same latitude - it wants to get up and out, but the only way it can do that, as explained, is to change its axial tilt. This will further back the flow/raise heights ahead of it. However, the factors outlined in the video will still allow the second and (correction here: also the third piece of energy) to dig faster and be stronger.

4. Models tend to largely underestimate the the diabatic heat release with systems that have so much energy and convection associated with them. As a result, this underestimation results in heights ahead of the "main show" to be represented as being lower (less ridging) than what actually occurs (in conjunction with the convective feedback I mentioned in the video), as all of the latent heat release feeds into the ridge downstream, thus allowing it to amplify better and quicker than modeling, especially globals, can resolve, even up to the event. This should also lead to further westward shifts, as this becomes realized, the ridge is modeled stronger, and the flow begins to back and have a stronger easterly component sooner.

Enjoy, and any questions, comments, concerns, please leave them here (or in the storm thread) and I will do my best to answer them!!

Just for clarity's sake, this video was made prior to last night's 00z runs, and I have yet to assess the overnight suites.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1M6lE8WhomsQL4a0K74-LU-qsQQAUqctr


Last edited by rb924119 on Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:35 pm; edited 1 time in total

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

RB's Video for the January 4-5th Possible Snow Event Empty Re: RB's Video for the January 4-5th Possible Snow Event

Post by amugs Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:24 pm

Great work Ray!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

RB's Video for the January 4-5th Possible Snow Event Empty Re: RB's Video for the January 4-5th Possible Snow Event

Post by crippo84 Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:28 pm

amugs wrote:Great work Ray!!

I second this. Unfortunately I can't view the video (work firewall restrictions) but the write-up above is clear. Much appreciated.
crippo84
crippo84

Posts : 383
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2013-11-07
Age : 40
Location : East Village, NYC

Back to top Go down

RB's Video for the January 4-5th Possible Snow Event Empty Re: RB's Video for the January 4-5th Possible Snow Event

Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:54 pm

Nice Ray!

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

RB's Video for the January 4-5th Possible Snow Event Empty Re: RB's Video for the January 4-5th Possible Snow Event

Post by billg315 Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:23 pm

Great video rb. Good explanation of your take on this.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

RB's Video for the January 4-5th Possible Snow Event Empty Re: RB's Video for the January 4-5th Possible Snow Event

Post by docstox12 Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:24 pm

Excellent job Ray!!!
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 8472
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

RB's Video for the January 4-5th Possible Snow Event Empty Re: RB's Video for the January 4-5th Possible Snow Event

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum