January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
The Crapola Snow Map on the GFS is either ridiculous or it will cause me tomorrow to commit Seppuku right here on this forum. It shows a solid blob of 6-10" snowfall across eastern Maryland, Delaware, South Jersey and Southeast PA. Then a solid blob of 6-10" over all of CT and Mass. And in between a desert of 2-5" over North Jersey and the Hudson Valley.
Last edited by billg315 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:01 am; edited 1 time in total
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
GFS has very light precip NYC and both points north and west, CMC is struggling even more. Light precip for everyone north of CNJ, even LI
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
so NAM is the only model throwing out BS numbers?
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
cmc went east. here is my take. very complex system. globals except cmc have been trending west but still jump slp towards convection (east) robbing the western flank. if you look at today's gfs which came well west today and esp the cmc you will see qpf lighten significantly from central nj on north. nam doesn't do that a brings heavy precip further north and west. we shall see but I expect a wetter western flank. a good call right now is 6" for the city (less west) and 12"+ as you head east. I wouldn't bet my house on this as many options still on the table.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Can you say crushing/paralyzing??
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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Again I think a good bet with this storm is 0-18 with a chance of sunshine so don't forget the glasses.
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
algae888 wrote:cmc went east. here is my take. very complex system. globals except cmc have been trending west but still jump slp towards convection (east) robbing the western flank. if you look at today's gfs which came well west today and esp the cmc you will see qpf lighten significantly from central nj on north. nam doesn't do that a brings heavy precip further north and west. we shall see but I expect a wetter western flank. a good call right now is 6" for the city (less west) and 12"+ as you head east. I wouldn't bet my house on this as many options still on the table.
CMC has been out to lunch for days. It gives Red Sox Suck .30 of precip, Yea, ok.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Here's the 250 jet streak as it it coming to bring us goods and help create lift for the precip to ocme a tad more NW
From CCB
From CCB
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
I'm actually getting fed up with this storm. It's been toying with my emotions for several days.
Back to expecting 2-4 and if by chance I get more I'll celebrate after the fact.
Back to expecting 2-4 and if by chance I get more I'll celebrate after the fact.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Severe Weather Alerts - New Egypt, NJ
Winter Storm Warning
Winter Storm Warning in effect from 9:00 PM EST until Thursday, 7:00 PM EST. Source: U.S. National Weather Service
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult
travel conditions, including during the morning commute on
Thursday. Tree branches could fall as well. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected.
* WHERE...Portions of southeastern New Jersey.
* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause
areas of blowing and drifting snow resulting in significantly
reduced visibilities. Scattered power outages could develop
Thursday and Friday which would force considerable hardship
where heat would not be available.
Winter Storm Warning
Winter Storm Warning in effect from 9:00 PM EST until Thursday, 7:00 PM EST. Source: U.S. National Weather Service
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult
travel conditions, including during the morning commute on
Thursday. Tree branches could fall as well. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected.
* WHERE...Portions of southeastern New Jersey.
* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause
areas of blowing and drifting snow resulting in significantly
reduced visibilities. Scattered power outages could develop
Thursday and Friday which would force considerable hardship
where heat would not be available.
Roger92- Posts : 24
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Yea cp all kidding aside i think a 1-6 is a good bet with that cutoff west of Hudson. I never really expected anything more for us if we get more then the celebrating begins.
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
I think this storm will surprise most of us.
Roger92- Posts : 24
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
jimv45 wrote:Yea cp all kidding aside i think a 1-6 is a good bet with that cutoff west of Hudson. I never really expected anything more for us if we get more then the celebrating begins.
I'll be surprised if we get less than 3. 3-6 is still what I'm still thinking. Some models are going to bust badly.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Joe Cioffi is taking the 12z 3K Nam and halving it as of now. We'll see, us NENJ folks are always THIS close!
I figure I'll see about 5-6"
I figure I'll see about 5-6"
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Maybe it’s just my inner snow weenie talking but I think this storm will over produce especially here in north eastern bergen county I think 4-8 is very achievable but I’m still cautious because we all know setups like this have high bust potential!! Mugs do you agree with me for our neck of the woods?
Aiosamoney21- Posts : 86
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Dunnzoo wrote:Joe Cioffi is taking the 12z 3K Nam and halving it as of now. We'll see, us NENJ folks are always THIS close!
I figure I'll see about 5-6"
I agree with you Janet!!
Aiosamoney21- Posts : 86
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
12z UKMET is west. Looks like 12-15mm of snow
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Yea hyde but there will be a cutoff unless that Nam Model is correct, just such a pain of a storm. This has me calling weather people I have not spoken to in a while no clue.
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Frank_Wx wrote:12z UKMET is west. Looks like 12-15mm of snow
He he
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Good "morning",
While you all slept, I was in the midst of a mental breakdown post the 06z NAM. Where are we at? Is it possible we get other models on board for more than a moderate snowfall in NYC or do we have consensus and 3k NAM is the outlier...?
While you all slept, I was in the midst of a mental breakdown post the 06z NAM. Where are we at? Is it possible we get other models on board for more than a moderate snowfall in NYC or do we have consensus and 3k NAM is the outlier...?
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
Question-12-15 mm. How does that convert to inches of snow?
gigs68- Posts : 142
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
5-6" lolgigs68 wrote:Question-12-15 mm. How does that convert to inches of snow?
Roger92- Posts : 24
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
2.5 mm in one inch.Roger92 wrote:5-6" lolgigs68 wrote:Question-12-15 mm. How does that convert to inches of snow?
Roger92- Posts : 24
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
That's about 5 to 6 inches of snow at 10 to 1 ratio I feel pretty confident New York City and the borough's will see 6 in and probably slightly moregigs68 wrote:Question-12-15 mm. How does that convert to inches of snow?
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
With ratios it would be like 6-10
rb924119- Meteorologist
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map
What is the next model to look at
Carter bk- Posts : 73
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