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January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:58 am

The Crapola Snow Map on the GFS is either ridiculous or it will cause me tomorrow to commit Seppuku right here on this forum. It shows a solid blob of 6-10" snowfall across eastern Maryland, Delaware, South Jersey and Southeast PA. Then a solid blob of 6-10" over all of CT and Mass. And in between a desert of 2-5" over North Jersey and the Hudson Valley.


Last edited by billg315 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:01 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:00 am

GFS has very light precip NYC and both points north and west, CMC is struggling even more. Light precip for everyone north of CNJ, even LI

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Post by RJB8525 Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:01 am

so NAM is the only model throwing out BS numbers?
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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:01 am

cmc went east. here is my take. very complex system. globals except cmc have been trending west but still jump slp towards convection (east) robbing the western flank. if you look at today's gfs which came well west today and esp the cmc you will see qpf lighten significantly from central nj on north. nam doesn't do that a brings heavy precip further north and west. we shall see but I expect a wetter western flank. a good call right now is 6" for the city (less west) and 12"+ as you head east. I wouldn't bet my house on this as many options still on the table.
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:04 am

Can you say crushing/paralyzing??

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 5a4cfd7562431_RAD_MOS_REG_SE_L2WINTER_ANI(2).thumb.gif.8ac99f124ffbef9070430358dd0d61bb

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Post by jimv45 Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:05 am

Again I think a good bet with this storm is 0-18 with a chance of sunshine so don't forget the glasses.

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Post by hyde345 Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:12 am

algae888 wrote:cmc went east. here is my take. very complex system. globals except cmc have been trending west but still jump slp towards convection (east) robbing the western flank. if you look at today's gfs which came well west today and esp the cmc you will see qpf lighten significantly from central nj on north. nam doesn't do that a brings heavy precip further north and west. we shall see but I expect a wetter western flank. a good call right now is 6" for the city (less west) and 12"+ as you head east. I wouldn't bet my house on this as many options still on the table.

CMC has been out to lunch for days. It gives Red Sox Suck .30 of precip, Yea, ok.
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:21 am

Here's the 250 jet streak as it it coming to bring us goods and help create lift for the precip to ocme a tad more NW
From CCB
January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 Index.gif.31b1e1cf9677e82640d4a5affd0d18a8


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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:28 am

I'm actually getting fed up with this storm. It's been toying with my emotions for several days.

Back to expecting 2-4 and if by chance I get more I'll celebrate after the fact.
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Post by Roger92 Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:33 am

Severe Weather Alerts - New Egypt, NJ
Winter Storm Warning
Winter Storm Warning in effect from 9:00 PM EST until Thursday, 7:00 PM EST. Source: U.S. National Weather Service
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult
travel conditions, including during the morning commute on
Thursday. Tree branches could fall as well. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southeastern New Jersey.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause
areas of blowing and drifting snow resulting in significantly
reduced visibilities. Scattered power outages could develop
Thursday and Friday which would force considerable hardship
where heat would not be available.

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Post by jimv45 Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:34 am

Yea cp all kidding aside i think a 1-6 is a good bet with that cutoff west of Hudson.  I never really expected anything more for us if we get more then the celebrating begins.

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Post by Roger92 Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:38 am

I think this storm will surprise most of us.

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Post by hyde345 Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:47 am

jimv45 wrote:Yea cp all kidding aside i think a 1-6 is a good bet with that cutoff west of Hudson.  I never really expected anything more for us if we get more then the celebrating begins.

I'll be surprised if we get less than 3. 3-6 is still what I'm still thinking. Some models are going to bust badly.
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:49 am

Joe Cioffi is taking the 12z 3K Nam and halving it as of now. We'll see, us NENJ folks are always THIS close! geek
I figure I'll see about 5-6"

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Post by Aiosamoney21 Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:50 am

Maybe it’s just my inner snow weenie talking but I think this storm will over produce especially here in north eastern bergen county I think 4-8 is very achievable but I’m still cautious because we all know setups like this have high bust potential!! Mugs do you agree with me for our neck of the woods?

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Post by Aiosamoney21 Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:51 am

Dunnzoo wrote:Joe Cioffi is taking the 12z 3K Nam and halving it as of now. We'll see, us NENJ folks are always THIS close! geek
I figure I'll see about 5-6"


I agree with you Janet!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:51 am

12z UKMET is west. Looks like 12-15mm of snow

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 P1_GZ_D5_PN_030_0000.thumb.gif.474e3f72d6bfc97506ead4b4d80b977c

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Post by jimv45 Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:52 am

Yea hyde but there will be a cutoff unless that Nam Model is correct, just such a pain of a storm. This has me calling weather people I have not spoken to in a while no clue.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:57 am

Frank_Wx wrote:12z UKMET is west. Looks like 12-15mm of snow

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 P1_GZ_D5_PN_030_0000.thumb.gif.474e3f72d6bfc97506ead4b4d80b977c

He he

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:02 pm

Good "morning",

While you all slept, I was in the midst of a mental breakdown post the 06z NAM. Where are we at? Is it possible we get other models on board for more than a moderate snowfall in NYC or do we have consensus and 3k NAM is the outlier...?
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Post by gigs68 Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:03 pm

Question-12-15 mm. How does that convert to inches of snow?
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Post by Roger92 Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:04 pm

gigs68 wrote:Question-12-15 mm.  How does that convert to inches of snow?
5-6" lol

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Post by Roger92 Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:05 pm

Roger92 wrote:
gigs68 wrote:Question-12-15 mm.  How does that convert to inches of snow?
5-6" lol
2.5 mm in one inch.

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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:05 pm

gigs68 wrote:Question-12-15 mm.  How does that convert to inches of snow?
That's about 5 to 6 inches of snow at 10 to 1 ratio I feel pretty confident New York City and the borough's will see 6 in and probably slightly more
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:06 pm

With ratios it would be like 6-10

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:08 pm

How many mm for CLI?

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Post by Carter bk Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:09 pm

What is the next model to look at

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