January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Quietace on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:31 pm

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by emokid51783 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:33 pm

Not to sound dumb, but what exactly does the negative trough mean? Is that thr jet bending back west?

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by rb924119 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:33 pm

For those of you wondering where the back edge of precip, at the least on radar, should be when it gets up here, check the image below. The pink line respresents my best guess based on the water vapor as to the max extent of the shield. Frank, remember that vorticity streamer I mentioned in the answer to your question? If you look, I'll bet you it's just west of that line. Pretty cool to match models to obs.

Whether it's virga or not is a different story, though.


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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:41 pm

emokid51783 wrote:Not to sound dumb, but what exactly does the negative trough mean? Is that thr jet bending back west?

Negative tilt vs neutral vs positive tilt.





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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by aiannone on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:41 pm

rb924119 wrote:For those of you wondering where the back edge of precip, at the least on radar, should be when it gets up here, check the image below. The pink line respresents my best guess based on the water vapor as to the max extent of the shield. Frank, remember that vorticity streamer I mentioned in the answer to your question? If you look, I'll bet you it's just west of that line. Pretty cool to match models to obs.

Whether it's virga or not is a different story, though.

I'd be screaming and crying if I was back in Binghamton right now. That would remind be of the Jan 2016 blizzard that I had to leave to go back to Bing the day before and it was sunny in Bing while at home, they got crushed lol


Last edited by aiannone on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:42 pm

Sorry neutral and positive examples are reversed

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Carter bk on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:42 pm

Why didnt frank put godzilla up yet

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:45 pm

Carter bk wrote:Why didnt frank put godzilla up yet

Cause I am not forecasting one

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by dsix85 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:45 pm

Hey Emo, you think Jersey city will get a crush job?

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:45 pm


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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by rb924119 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:46 pm

Last few frames of hi-res WV imagery show that we are really backing our flow on the downstream side of our trough now. In other words, it's beginning to ball up at the mid-levels and change the steering flow now to more of a SSE flow rather than S. Watch the explosion of precip over the next few hours lol gonna be AWESOME!!!

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by billg315 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:47 pm

Right now the only place I see this being a Godzilla is MAYBE the eastern edge of Long Island. This seems to me to be a solid 6-12" Mothrazilla for most of the area with the back end of the 6" along I-287 and the NJ Turnpike and increasing as you go east to 12" on LI. West of that in NJ is probably 3-6" and PA 1-2".
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by rb924119 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:51 pm

18z NAM is nuking the western Atlantic though 9 ahahaha

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by rb924119 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:53 pm

Just looking at thickness contours I think this may bring back whispers 06z runs lol way more amped with the trough, much more negative and tucked in low.

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by rb924119 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:54 pm

Well, if the 12k can correct its precip shield, it shifted the low an easy 200 miles west ahaha omg lol

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by algae888 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:54 pm

the 18z nam is 10mb stronger than 12z at hour 9. 10pm tonight
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by rb924119 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:57 pm

Closes H5 off east of SC. That's why aha

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by billg315 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:58 pm

18z NAM seems to be underdoing the precipitation field through 9 compared to what I'm actually seeing on radar right now.
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by aiannone on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:00 pm

HOT DAMN NAM!
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Sanchize06 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:01 pm

This run will 12"+ NYC south and east

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by rb924119 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:04 pm

The differences with the jet are unreal. Verbatim, it should be snowing all the way back to I-81 and accumulating. Shifted the jet axis 200 miles west. You can see it tries to correct a couple frames of the QPF and then loses it; that to me should be real looking at the upper levels.

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:05 pm

18z NAM


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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:06 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:This run will 12"+ NYC south and east

To clarify, just for coastal SNJ and east end of LI

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Sanchize06 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:08 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:This run will 12"+ NYC south and east

To clarify, just for coastal SNJ and east end of LI

Yeah, doesn't quite make it into NYC. Thought it would

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Sanchize06 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:08 pm

NAM


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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

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