January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:44 pm

No one liked my call of 10-16” from the city on east a few pages back and 6-10” NYC metro. Looks pretty good right now. Hi res nam has me in central LI at 19.9”. Regular nam a touch over 1” qpf at 15:1 ratios
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Quietace on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:45 pm

syosnow94 wrote:No one liked my call of 10-16” from the city on east a few pages back and 6-10” NYC metro.  Looks pretty good right now.  Hi res nam has me in central LI at 19.9”. Regular nam a touch over 1” qpf at 15:1 ratios
I do. 12" plus JS/LI. Very east end has to watch for mixing.

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by track17 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:46 pm

I would actually appreciate it if people did not talk about me not really fair. I am just sitting here watching.

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:47 pm

Any more shifts in the precip possible im nervous being so close to the cut off.
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by amugs on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:51 pm

Okay not be bursting peeps bubbles or coolyons here but the high winds areas of the NJ coast and LI will have snow growth at 12/13:1 due to teh great winds. Those on the outer edges of these high winds will have better snow growth like 17: - 22:1 ratios which means if you have .4 LE yuo may see upwards of 8" or if .3 like 6". These dynamics are going to be a nowcast type of feature IMO.
Listen LI and SNJ coastline is getting hammered hands down

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Carter bk on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:52 pm

Tgats 10 to 1 ratio so nyc easy foot or more

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by RJB8525 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:54 pm

if you listen quietly right now you can hear the stampedes of people rushing the doors of Shop rite and etc
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by amugs on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:55 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Any more shifts in the precip possible im nervous being so close to the cut off.

Nervous about what?? Common Jman you are going to get a good snowstorm - like 4-6" plus man.
We all want 12-18" but unless we have a another 30 mile shift it is unlikely.
"Get what you get and dont get upset "- words that my sons Kindergarten Teacher taught them and something to embrace.

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:58 pm

I’d love another 30 mile shift Amugs. Get all my forum brothers and sisters some more love.
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by RJB8525 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:59 pm

i'm happy if i get 3-4". logistics are not in my favor so i'll take anything lol
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Vinnydula on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:59 pm

I really do feel it will come west more.
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:00 pm

Quietace wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:No one liked my call of 10-16” from the city on east a few pages back and 6-10” NYC metro.  Looks pretty good right now.  Hi res nam has me in central LI at 19.9”. Regular nam a touch over 1” qpf at 15:1 ratios
I do. 12" plus JS/LI. Very east end has to watch for mixing.

Told my higher ups at school expect 12-16” and a lot of blowing and drifting. No school tomorrow and possibly even Friday if the winds drift snow and buses can’t be dug out. I think it’s a matter of time till upton raises totals and extends blizzard warnings. Thoughts Ryan or anyone else?
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:00 pm

track17 wrote:I would actually appreciate it if people did not talk about me not really fair. I am just sitting here watching.
my bad no offense meant ur cool in my book. U look to do well.
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Quietace on Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:01 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:No one liked my call of 10-16” from the city on east a few pages back and 6-10” NYC metro.  Looks pretty good right now.  Hi res nam has me in central LI at 19.9”. Regular nam a touch over 1” qpf at 15:1 ratios
I do. 12" plus JS/LI. Very east end has to watch for mixing.

Told my higher ups at school expect 12-16” and a lot of blowing and drifting. No school tomorrow and possibly even Friday if the winds drift snow and buses can’t be dug out.  I think it’s a matter of time till upton raises totals and extends blizzard warnings.  Thoughts Ryan or anyone else?
Agree. Will have ground blizzard conditions into Friday.....

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:03 pm

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Any more shifts in the precip possible im nervous being so close to the cut off.

Nervous about what?? Common Jman you are going to get a good snowstorm - like 4-6" plus man.
We all want 12-18" but unless we have a another 30 mile shift it is unlikely.
"Get what you get and dont get upset "- words that my sons Kindergarten Teacher taught them and something to embrace.
all models have me well more than 6 pretty much. Remember im on Bronx border. 3km was with ratios prolly a foot or more. We will see.
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:04 pm

Quietace wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:No one liked my call of 10-16” from the city on east a few pages back and 6-10” NYC metro.  Looks pretty good right now.  Hi res nam has me in central LI at 19.9”. Regular nam a touch over 1” qpf at 15:1 ratios
I do. 12" plus JS/LI. Very east end has to watch for mixing.

Told my higher ups at school expect 12-16” and a lot of blowing and drifting. No school tomorrow and possibly even Friday if the winds drift snow and buses can’t be dug out.  I think it’s a matter of time till upton raises totals and extends blizzard warnings.  Thoughts Ryan or anyone else?
Agree. Will have ground blizzard conditions into Friday.....
extends blizzard warnings where all long island and only NYC and ct are left out which imo will change as says 45 mph gusts in my wsw
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Roger92 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:11 pm

Blizzard warning are up here in Ocean county NJ. All schools are closed tomorrow and may be businesses also closed.

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:12 pm

Roger92 wrote:Blizzard warning are up here in Ocean county NJ.  All schools are closed tomorrow and may be businesses also closed.

Is this true on schools
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by track17 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:15 pm

Thanks jman I am trying to stay out of trouble and drama for the new yr but looks good but don't want to say more and jinx it

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by frank 638 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:16 pm

I hating is why but why is every newscast saying that the city will get 3 to 6 in I thought we were getting 6 to 10 in

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by crippo84 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:17 pm

As NYC (with the exception of the BK and Queens beaches) is far enough 'inland' and on the outside of the most intense impacts, I wouldn't expect blizzard warnings for the city westward. The NWS WSW headline seems pretty accurate at this stage.

We've been talking a lot about totals and cutoffs, but what about timings of the event? When can we expect things to taper off? The chatter around the office right now is work from home or try and come in depending on the timing of the teeth of the storm (especially for city dwellers).
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by MattyICE on Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:20 pm

I think this thing comes in quicker than modeled and gets out quicker than modeled. So in any given location I see about a 10 hour event without much blocking to slow down. Here in NE NJ I expect a start way before sunrise maybe 3 am and a shut off by 1:00pm

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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:20 pm

Need to catch up..very busy today....Blizzard warnings are now up in Monmouth County..
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:27 pm

NYC and my area are forecast by nws gusts to 45 blizzard criteria is 35 mph. It's just logistics but I love the wind part of snow too so I hope it's extended I to NYC and the burbs which I am pretty much in
But usually they do us last.
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Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Quietace on Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:30 pm

jmanley32 wrote:NYC and my area are forecast by nws gusts to 45 blizzard criteria is 35 mph. It's just logistics but I love the wind part of snow too so I hope it's extended I to NYC and the burbs which I am pretty much in
But usually they do us last.
That is incorrect. It is sustained winds to 35....You need sustained visibility under criteria, and sustained winds over the criteria.

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