January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Page 3 of 18 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 10 ... 18  Next

Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:39 am

Hey guys, happy New Year! Got excited yesterday but was pretty busy, trends have been ticking west but as of tonights 0z had somewhat stalled, some still ticking west but some ticking back east. My general idea still holds, moderate to heavy snowstorm by the immediate coast, LI, and into NE, light to moderate (2-6") from 80 to 95 in NJ, less north and west. Very volatile setup with high bust potential, still possible most of us see nearly nothing, if it makes a last minute shift west another 50-100miles most of the I-95 corridor could get into moderate/heavy snows. I'd say keep an eye on high res and SR models for trends and precip starting now and tracking up until it's moving up the coast. By the time it's near Hatteras it's position should tell us where it's going to go, but I still think it swings just outside of benchmark with the fish getting a blizzard and very strong winds. We shall see.
avatar
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:43 am

Another note, with the angle of approach and wrapping precip field around extremely deep low, I think it needs to tuck in south of LI for most of the area to get into said heavy snows, I think the precip field will indeed be fairly small as the storm blows up. If it drifts further east as many runs are showing (S or E of BM) then most of the precip/banding will likely remain off shore. Just another ob. from tonights runs so far.
avatar
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:15 am

Guys!!! Wake the F up!!!

The 06z NAM!!!!!
avatar
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2490
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:17 am

Just going to post woke up 10 min ago hearing na m is crazy
avatar
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2110
Reputation : 38
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 54
Location : Hazlet Township

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:18 am

THE LATEST NAM IS BEYOND CRAZY

Hearing the 3K running now may be even CRAZIER.
avatar
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2490
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Smitty623 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:20 am

Hello all, I’m very new to the forum. As you can see hahaa. But following you guys and wanted to chirp in because this storm is making me go crazy. Anyway HOLY NAM

Smitty623

Posts : 2
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2018-01-02

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:21 am

On not are we only ones up...
avatar
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2110
Reputation : 38
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 54
Location : Hazlet Township

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:22 am

Look at hour  35 how close to us is it at that point..don't know how to read these


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:24 am; edited 1 time in total
avatar
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2110
Reputation : 38
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 54
Location : Hazlet Township

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:22 am

Looks like the NAM is gonna do it for us. I've learned not to put all my chips in when it's just the NAM, but it got blizz 2016. Hopefully it's a continuation of the trend. Very good sign! Leggo!
avatar
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:23 am

avatar
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:24 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Looks like the NAM is gonna do it for us. I've learned not to put all my chips in when it's just the NAM, but it got blizz 2016. Hopefully it's a continuation of the trend. Very good sign! Leggo!

Unreal! It's literally a crippling blizzard on that run! I'm so happy (for now lol)
avatar
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2490
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:25 am

It looks like a hurricane, just wow...
avatar
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:26 am

I am losing my sh*t

avatar
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2490
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:27 am

Are we really awake or am I dreaming
avatar
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2110
Reputation : 38
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 54
Location : Hazlet Township

View user profile

Back to top Go down

This dudes map intriguing!

Post by hurrysundown23 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:29 am


hurrysundown23

Posts : 43
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2017-01-04

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:30 am

3K NAM IS ALSO A PARALYZING BLIZZARD for our area.
avatar
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2490
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by hurrysundown23 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:31 am

The NY NJ PA Weather forecast is more aggressive than the NWS forecasts which you can read here and here. So why am I going so much higher?

Well, this storm has a lot of similarities to the Boxer Day storm where the global models just were not handling the interaction of shortwaves very well. When I compare the shortwaves via the observations like satellite pictures and upper-level soundings, the overall solution to me gives more support with a complete phase of the two shortwaves diving towards the Mississippi River Valley this afternoon. If the complete phase happens as seen on the NAM, RGEM, SREF, and RPM; than the forecast above would be the result. If the phase is not complete and a piece of this storm is able to jump further east, then the whole precipitation shield ends up mostly off the coast and snowfall totals are cut in half.

In a case like this, I rather forecast high and than lower as to not put people in harm’s way. Images of people trapped on a highway in a blizzard do not sit well with me here. So I rather go high than try to be perfect, even though I rather always be perfect with my forecasting.

Regardless of track, the wind impacts are a significant concern especially along the coast but even over the interior. Aside from windchills being in the single digits and teens at the height of the storm on Thursday morning, visibility is likely to fall below 2 miles. The strong winds at 20 to 40 mph sustained along the coast with gusts over 50 mph at times, will also support the potential for power outages and minor to moderate wind damage. There is a concern for coastal flooding and also a unique concern with the ice that has formed in many bays around the region. The strong winds and tidal action may drive large areas of ice into structures along the coast, which could be a problem for boats and other structural features.

The forecast for this storm is highly volatile and changes are likely. Over the next 24 hours, the forecast for this storm will hopefully come in line and a final forecast is expected by tomorrow afternoon as we watch the storm begin to form off the Southeast coast. My advice is to be prepared and hope for the best, which is an incomplete phase and a track to the east-northeast.

hurrysundown23

Posts : 43
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2017-01-04

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by hurrysundown23 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:32 am

The Next 12 hrs will be interesting no doubt!

hurrysundown23

Posts : 43
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2017-01-04

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:39 am

So na m is always crazy with its precip...but even if we say we get half we should be happy with the trend..right
avatar
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2110
Reputation : 38
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 54
Location : Hazlet Township

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:40 am

Also did last night's runs have the recon data included
avatar
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2110
Reputation : 38
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 54
Location : Hazlet Township

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:01 am

WINTER STORM WATCH just hoisted for all 5 boroughs of NYC, coastal Westchester, and Nassau. Winter Storm Warning (upgrade) for Suffolk.
avatar
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2490
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:04 am

You thought the 12k NaM look at 3k. But just know it’s in its own right. RGEm not even close to the same output as NaM

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5829
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:31 am

3k NAM. Cp. you should be waking right about now. If the NAM is correct MADONNE!




_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5829
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:37 am

sroc4 wrote:3k NAM. Cp. you should be waking right about now. If the NAM is correct MADONNE!  




Wow that's at 10:1 it be more like 15:1 that's 3 feet here
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4077
Reputation : 22
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 40
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by oldtimer on Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:43 am

OMG!!!

oldtimer
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1054
Reputation : 13
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 72
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 3 of 18 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 10 ... 18  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum