January 16th-17th Snow Event

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by Snow88 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:03 pm

CMC Ensembles and GEFS are colder and further east than their op runs

This leads me to believe that the upcoming runs will be colder.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:03 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Im confused sci says 17th but you guys are taking tomorrow and wed the 16th and 17th? I have drive back home from eastern CT tomorrow should I head back tonight or will the trip go ok?

Jman every time it’s supposed to snow you complain/ worry that you have to drive.  Did you become a taxi driver or delivery Man?  Anyway 3-6” over 12 hours will cause no issues while driving on the main roads.  Warmiccist
no but 95 is always a nightmare u must never drive on it. Crashes all over. And it's mainly cuz I gotta pick my daughter up tomorrow by 3pm
Warmicisdt? I never said I don't want snow. Bring it on I'd just prefer not be on roads especially with my child.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:11 pm

Wow12z gfs.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:18 pm

12km nam good too looks like not much for coast though. Is it go be too warm and rain?
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by amugs on Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:23 pm

UKIE!!!!!!!!!!!



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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by amugs on Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:27 pm

From Armando on another site

While boundary layers and profile will have to be sorted out , given it's a volatile situation of where that secondary tracks as well, it's interesting to note the location of the 250mb ULJ. Weak baroclinic wave under left exit region. Curious to see how this all plays out, but looking good for places NW of metro areas

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by amugs on Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:31 pm

Nicer Hi RES UKIE QPF MAP - compliments of Doug fresh


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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by docstox12 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:39 pm

amugs wrote:Nicer Hi RES UKIE QPF MAP - compliments of Doug fresh


DOUGIE BABY YES for HV!!!!!
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:59 pm

Euro coming in very warm
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:03 pm

12z Euro wants to have the coast, NNJ and the lower hudson valley rain for most of the event. Im not buying it, but key is it does now develop the coastal low much stronger and west than 0z
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:26 pm

docstox12 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Good Morning,

As you likely heard by now we have some snow on the way beginning Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. The GFS shows light snow falling from 2pm Tuesday to 10am Wednesday. It even tries to pop a coastal low to bring about moderate to heavy snow over portions of Long Island and southern New England. Surface temperatures look to be above freezing for the immediate coast, including NYC, but boundary temps are plentiful cold to support snow and not rain or mix. Due to the light intensity of the snow I am not expecting much accumulation on major roadways. Side roads and cold surfaces will get covered, however.

I am thinking 1-3 inches for SNJ, CNJ, and the Jersey Shore. 2-4 inches for LI, NYC, NE NJ. 3-6" is possible for NW NJ, N&W of NYC, and much of east-central and NE PA.

Start time likely to be 11am Tuesday (for NYC, earlier west) with an end time overnight Tuesday.




Frank, thanks for this new thread and the update!! Looks like the HV might get to 4 inches on this one.Elevation and ratio working for me on this one.

No problem. You are in a good spot.

syosnow94 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Im confused sci says 17th but you guys are taking tomorrow and wed the 16th and 17th? I have drive back home from eastern CT tomorrow should I head back tonight or will the trip go ok?

Jman every time it’s supposed to snow you complain/ worry that you have to drive.  Did you become a taxi driver or delivery Man?  Anyway 3-6” over 12 hours will cause no issues while driving on the main roads.  Warmiccist

Agree, and 3-6" is just for those N&W of NYC. Everyone else is likely 1-3" with pockets of 4".

It will start early Tuesday afternoon but the heaviest precip will be Wednesday morning. It is a long duration event of light to sometimes moderate precip. I think roads will be fine, actually.

rb924119 wrote:I still think these totals are WAY overdone, and think a coating to 2", maybe 3" MAX is what results. It's a clipper - moisture-starved and quick.

Where is it overdone? I think Doc and CP's area are a pretty good bet for 3-4". Hi-Res NAM shows .25" liquid with cold air


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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by hyde345 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:33 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Good Morning,

As you likely heard by now we have some snow on the way beginning Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. The GFS shows light snow falling from 2pm Tuesday to 10am Wednesday. It even tries to pop a coastal low to bring about moderate to heavy snow over portions of Long Island and southern New England. Surface temperatures look to be above freezing for the immediate coast, including NYC, but boundary temps are plentiful cold to support snow and not rain or mix. Due to the light intensity of the snow I am not expecting much accumulation on major roadways. Side roads and cold surfaces will get covered, however.

I am thinking 1-3 inches for SNJ, CNJ, and the Jersey Shore. 2-4 inches for LI, NYC, NE NJ. 3-6" is possible for NW NJ, N&W of NYC, and much of east-central and NE PA.

Start time likely to be 11am Tuesday (for NYC, earlier west) with an end time overnight Tuesday.






Frank, thanks for this new thread and the update!! Looks like the HV might get to 4 inches on this one.Elevation and ratio working for me on this one.

No problem. You are in a good spot.



syosnow94 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Im confused sci says 17th but you guys are taking tomorrow and wed the 16th and 17th? I have drive back home from eastern CT tomorrow should I head back tonight or will the trip go ok?

Jman every time it’s supposed to snow you complain/ worry that you have to drive.  Did you become a taxi driver or delivery Man?  Anyway 3-6” over 12 hours will cause no issues while driving on the main roads.  Warmiccist


Agree, and 3-6" is just for those N&W of NYC. Everyone else is likely 1-3" with pockets of 4".

It will start early Tuesday afternoon but the heaviest precip will be Wednesday morning. It is a long duration event of light to sometimes moderate precip. I think roads will be fine, actually.

rb924119 wrote:I still think these totals are WAY overdone, and think a coating to 2", maybe 3" MAX is what results. It's a clipper - moisture-starved and quick.

Where is it overdone? I think Doc and CP's area are a pretty good bet for 3-4". Hi-Res NAM shows .25" liquid with cold air


The hi-res nam is on the low end for qpf. The other models show atleast .50 for most areas and the Euro is off the charts north and west.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:35 pm

If most of the precip occurs after dark Tuesday night through Wednesday morning then I think the BL temps are less of an issue for the coast. Also some of the local media meteorologists (whom I can’t stand) are saying this thing can stall off the Jersey coast and stick around all Day Wednesday
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by mikeypizano on Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:41 pm

When will storm watches, advisories etc be issued?
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by jimv45 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:45 pm

Right now hyde it looks good for us northern folks.

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by hyde345 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:47 pm

mikeypizano wrote:When will storm watches, advisories etc be issued?

I would say later today if they feel they are needed.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by hyde345 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:48 pm

jimv45 wrote:Right now hyde it looks good for us northern folks.

Yes it does Jim.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by rb924119 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:04 pm

I wasn't necessarily referring to you, specifically, Frank, that comment was directed much more toward the outputs showing 3-6" or more for a large area. Sorry for the confusion, buddy.

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:36 pm

syosnow94 wrote:If most of the precip occurs after dark Tuesday night through Wednesday morning then I think the BL temps are less of an issue for the coast.  Also some of the local media meteorologists (whom I can’t stand) are saying this thing can stall off the Jersey coast and stick around all Day Wednesday

Im still very much worried about a warm nose into the lower levels

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 29.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by amugs on Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:38 pm

syosnow94 wrote:If most of the precip occurs after dark Tuesday night through Wednesday morning then I think the BL temps are less of an issue for the coast.  Also some of the local media meteorologists (whom I can’t stand) are saying this thing can stall off the Jersey coast and stick around all Day Wednesday

There is a meso low that keeps poking its head of the NC Coast/OBX that could really ramp thing s up as HM pointed out in a tweet.
A few EPS members as I poste dyesteerdya had a solution as such stalling of teh jersey coast for a bit, dont see why that is.
Been doing a service project all day for MLK service day here.

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by Math23x7 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:41 pm

12Z EURO has backend flurries for Manhattan, the Bronx, and Northern Queens but otherwise all rain for NYC/LI.

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:41 pm

Here is Uptons take:

he approaching weak low and associated positively-tilted upper
trough/deep layer SW flow aloft will approach on Tue, with
chances for light snow increasing through the day, especially NW
of NYC, where an inch or two of accumulation may be possible by
evening. Farther east, low level WAA and light precip intensity
at best may not allow temps to cool down as much toward wet bulb
temps, so afternoon precip across parts of Long Island more
likely to be be a rain/snow mix.


High temps should range from the upper 20s well inland, to
30-35 most elsewhere, to some upper 30s in parts of eastern Long
Island.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Guidance consensus is now rather strong for Tuesday night into
Wednesday night for an upper full latitude trough to moves
across the eastern United States and into the western Atlantic
as the upper flow has become more progressive. The northern
stream energy and surface low will be weakening across upstate
New York Tuesday night into Wednesday. An inverted trough off
the southeast coast Tuesday night develops into a coastal low by
12Z Wednesday off the DELMARVA as the upper trough approaches.

Again guidance is well clustered in deepening the low Wednesday,
and passing over or near the 70/40 benchmark. Light
precipitation, snow, with the weakening low initially moves into
the region Tuesday night. Then the coastal low dominates
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Low level warm air wraps into
the far eastern sections, mainly New London Connecticut to the
twin forks of Long Island, ahead of the low late Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The ECMWF wraps the warmer air the furtherest
west, with the GFS and NAM just across the far eastern zones.
Leaned toward this colder solution as the low will be
progressive.
As such there will likely be a rain/snow mix, and
even a change to all rain for a time Wednesday
, before colder
air returns as the low departs after 21Z Wednesday. Looks to be
an advisory level snow event across portions of northeastern New
Jersey through the lower Hudson Valley and across southern
Connecticut, while coastal locations will be in the 2 inch
range. Too early at this time to post an advisory, and also some
uncertainty, if the coastal low tracks farther east with the
progressive flow, then snow amounts will be lower.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 29.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:46 pm

Ok thanks Frank hoping we get good snow tomorrow and wed.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:11 pm

18z NAM coming in a bit colder
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by RJB8525 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:17 pm

Mt Holly sending out WWA:

Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem,
and Easton
313 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwestern New Jersey and east-central
and northeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Tuesday and Tuesday night. While light snow or flurries
will develop tonight causing slippery conditions on untreated
pavement toward morning, the heaviest snowfall will occur after
sunset Tuesday through Tuesday night. There may be some melting
of the snow in the lower elevations during the middle of the day
Tuesday.
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