January 16th-17th Snow Event

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:45 pm

Amugs I agree we've done real well the last few years but.....don't sell us short down here yet. The North Shore if LI is its own micro climate. Closer to CT than Central Jersey. You may be surprised
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:10 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Amugs I agree we've done real well the last few years but.....don't sell us short down here yet. The North Shore if LI is its own micro climate. Closer to CT than Central Jersey. You may be surprised
Yupp, gotta watch for that
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:31 pm

amugs wrote:LI peeps and SNJ peeps - yuo have chashed in YUUGGLLYY over the past few years so the winds are shiftin with this one as it should be. They need some lovin and I said  in my winter write up the above 40N it was going to be a better winter than previous. This one will help.

71 inches last year in the HV IMBY, 30 inches in NYC, I think we did OK. It was two years ago that we got screwed but it was only the one year, oyyyyy but what a horrible year it was.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by 2004blackwrx on Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:45 pm

Haha its amazes me the drastic total difference I see comparing your totals to mine. We are not that far apart. I'm guessing you have the advantage of elevation though.
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:LI peeps and SNJ peeps - yuo have chashed in YUUGGLLYY over the past few years so the winds are shiftin with this one as it should be. They need some lovin and I said  in my winter write up the above 40N it was going to be a better winter than previous. This one will help.

71 inches last year in the HV IMBY, 30 inches in NYC, I think we did OK. It was two years ago that we got screwed but it was only the one year, oyyyyy but what a horrible year it was.

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by Math23x7 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:12 pm

0Z RGEM wayyyy west

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:27 pm

2004blackwrx wrote:Haha its amazes me the drastic total difference I see comparing your totals to mine. We are not that far apart. I'm guessing you have the advantage of elevation though.
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:LI peeps and SNJ peeps - yuo have chashed in YUUGGLLYY over the past few years so the winds are shiftin with this one as it should be. They need some lovin and I said  in my winter write up the above 40N it was going to be a better winter than previous. This one will help.

71 inches last year in the HV IMBY, 30 inches in NYC, I think we did OK. It was two years ago that we got screwed but it was only the one year, oyyyyy but what a horrible year it was.

2004black I'm curious myself, I'm about 20 miles southwest of you so elevation and being in a better qpf location on a few storms might account for some of the difference. Below is my ount from last season. I account for every snowfall 0.1 inch or more, I've found through the years most casual observers and even some diehards miss a lot of events, and just don't account for the smaller ones. If you have totals from last year I'd be interested where the biggest discrepancies are. I know someone on another board in Ulster county almost across the river from you that totaled 80 inches last season so that vs. your 47 inches is a big difference.

November 20, 2016 4.0
December 5, 2016 1.8
December 6, 2016 1.2
December 11, 2016 1.5
December 15, 2016 0.3
December 17, 2016 4.8
December 29, 2016 0.6
December 30, 2016 1.1
January 6, 2017 0.2
January 7, 2016 2.5
January 14, 2017 1.0
January 23, 2017 4.3
January 24, 2017 2.1
January 31, 2017 1.7
February 9, 2017 13.8
February 10, 2017 0.3
February 12, 2017 3.8
March 10, 2017 4.5
March 14, 2017 20.8
March 15, 2017 0.4


Seasonal Total 70.7
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:42 pm

is the rain/snow line really gonna play that kinda game with LI? Snow on the ct shore, and rain on LI....

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:42 pm

No complaints here for most of HV but I'm not buying the 0 accumulations for NYC and East. Most of this falls at night, surrounding waters are cold and 850's and 925's are all below 0 from what I can see. Even if those areas are above freezing at the surface I would think it still snows and accumulates even at 33-34 degrees. But I'm no expert at this so I wouldn't go by my word either.

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by Math23x7 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:01 pm

IMHO, NYC/LI see all rain. The RGEM/ICON models have been alluding to that solution.

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by 2004blackwrx on Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:05 pm

CP I do measure every strorm. Unfortunately, I only track it on this site and at start of a new year I erase it and just add the total. Also this year I have measured every storm but have not individually input it due to the fact I have a 2 and half year old and a 9 month old. I also work shift work days and nights. Between the both they keep me busy. I got the totals but couldn't remember the dates so just been adding the grand total this year to avoid any inaccuracies. I do know other times I have noted others near me have had higher amounts. I usually take a few measurement and to air on the consercative side take the lowest reading. With the exception of when I thinl the lower measurement is due to melting or wind.

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:06 pm

Hmm, Upton updated their forecast and now doesn't even mention rain for me on the north shore. Im confused lol

Tuesday Night

Snow, mainly after 10pm. Steady temperature around 34. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 7 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Wednesday

Snow likely, mainly before 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Northwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by 2004blackwrx on Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:09 pm

aiannone all snow is an improvement. A small accumulation but something

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by hyde345 on Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:17 pm

Less than 24 hours before precip begins and thermal profiles and precip amounts are so different depending on the model. Amazing.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by 2004blackwrx on Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:20 am

Amazing yet expected. The models usually agree to a point but not exactly. This is where we find which weatherman is best at taking all this info and giving us accuracy. I love in November when someone tells me its gonna be a warm or snowy winter. I always laugh and say they don't know what is happening tomorrow. Best to look at short term pattern and then hope the pattern provides. In a way I wish we could accurately predict the weather but then if we did this site wouldn't exist and it be no fun. We all have an addiction to the thrill of the weather game.

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:17 am

0Z EURO continues the deal that the 12Z EURO had. I do not see the South Shore getting much in the way of snow. Interestingly enough, since I now live in Manhattan as opposed to Bellerose, I may actually get a bit of snow out of this. Not guaranteeing it. But a better chance I see some here than there.

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by docstox12 on Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:30 am

amugs wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
amugs wrote:RGEM
SNOW

RAIN

Wow would this be a kick in the ass IMBY. I get pretty much equal amounts snow and rain while 10 miles north goes 6-8”

Typical Nina pattern from the 70's and 80's where South of CNJ rains as does LI. Snow capitol not this storm my man!

You can add the 60's in there as well Mugsy.I lived in Fort Lee NJ right near the GWB.Many times in those winter years, the standard mantra of the tv weather people was "areas north and west of the City will see higher snow totals".One example I saw personally was in mid December 1966 where Fort Lee had a few slushy inches on the ground but up at my late Uncle's farm in Westtown NY, right by High Point, there was over 20 inches with snow showers on and off all that day.I sweated out big snowstorms where the rain/snow line was always creeping ever closer.The January 1978 snowstorm, when I was living in Ridgefield Park NJ right by I 95 was a case in point.Forecasters had predicted a changeover during the night.I got out of work at my office in Ramsey NJ around 7 30 with light snow coming down. Took a walk in Ridgefield Park before bed and there was 4 inches on the ground with moderate snow.I woke up around 6 AM, walked over to the sliding glass doors to look outside and there was no visibility.I figured the snow had changed to rain and I was seeing fog.It actually was whiteout. blizzard conditions! There were 8 foot drifts down there with over 20 inches on the level.My 1977 Ford Granada was buried up to the roof and there was a 15 foot drift on the side of the apartment complex.The rain/snow line had gotten as far as Newark, mere miles from my location.As Doc always says, "you have to smell the rain"! Took two days to dig out to get to work.Sorry to ramble on this should have been banter.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:35 am

Models showing some amping up of this clipper as it hits the coast. Something that intrigues me is that they're showing rain in CNJ for a portion of the storm, but I see nearly all layers below freezing, with the surface near freezing to marginally above (32-33 deg). Now if 850 was above freezing I could see rain, but I'm having a hard time buying it with a freezing to marginally above surface. Would expect wet snow instead. But maybe there's another warm layer further up that I'm not seeing but I doubt it. Watch for bust potential in the western part of the coastal plain, could get more than expected (3-5 vs forecast 1-2) or we could get less should the rain verify. I am more confident on a period of rain by the immediate coast due to ocean influence, but it could surprise us, so I say watch it regardless. Pretty confident on 3-6" in NJ north of 80 and NEPA/ SW HV.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:37 am

docstox12 wrote:
amugs wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
amugs wrote:RGEM
SNOW

RAIN

Wow would this be a kick in the ass IMBY. I get pretty much equal amounts snow and rain while 10 miles north goes 6-8”

Typical Nina pattern from the 70's and 80's where South of CNJ rains as does LI. Snow capitol not this storm my man!

You can add the 60's in there as well Mugsy.I lived in Fort Lee NJ right near the GWB.Many times in those winter years, the standard mantra of the tv weather people was "areas north and west of the City will see higher snow totals".One example I saw personally was in mid December 1966 where Fort Lee had a few slushy inches on the ground but up at my late Uncle's farm in Westtown NY, right by High Point, there was over 20 inches with snow showers on and off all that day.I sweated out big snowstorms where the rain/snow line was always creeping ever closer.The January 1978 snowstorm, when I was living in Ridgefield Park NJ right by I 95 was a case in point.Forecasters had predicted a changeover during the night.I got out of work at my office in Ramsey NJ around 7 30 with light snow coming down. Took a walk in Ridgefield Park before bed and there was 4 inches on the ground with moderate snow.I woke up around 6 AM, walked over to the sliding glass doors to look outside and there was no visibility.I figured the snow had changed to rain and I was seeing fog.It actually was whiteout. blizzard conditions! There were 8 foot drifts down there with over 20 inches on the level.My 1977 Ford Granada was buried up to the roof and there was a 15 foot drift on the side of the apartment complex.The rain/snow line had gotten as far as Newark, mere miles from my location.As Doc always says, "you have to smell the rain"! Took two days to dig out to get to work.Sorry to ramble on this should have been banter.

UK looks more realistic given temp profile, as I just posted I think the GFS/NAM/ICON are too warm given below freezing at all levels besides a sfc of freezing to 33 or so. Would expect wet snow in this scenario for CNJ. High bust potential either way, all depends on how the radar shapes up later today.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:47 am

For example, 0z RGEM/HDRPS shows virtually nothing in CNJ meanwhile the 6z NAM 3km shows 4-5", high bust potential in either direction. As in most of this winters' storms it will come down to the last minute, nowcast time!
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by algae888 on Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:10 am

Winter weather advisory up for Bronx Manhattan lower Westchester and North Eastern New Jersey for 3 to 5 inches of snow tonight into tomorrow. Euro did coming colder for these areas with 2 to 4 inches of snow verbatim. Hi bust potential even on the upside for Eastern Boro's and parts of Nassau County.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by King-Ubas on Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:16 am

good coating up in sussex county from brief burst. Still coming down pretty good

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by mikeypizano on Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:19 am

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by Dtone on Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:27 am

Bronx and Manhattan added.

Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-
Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
342 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions,
 including during the morning commute on Wednesday. Total snow
 accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
 and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
 times.

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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:34 am

First flakes falling in Flemington
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

Post by billg315 on Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:39 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Models showing some amping up of this clipper as it hits the coast. Something that intrigues me is that they're showing rain in CNJ for a portion of the storm, but I see nearly all layers below freezing, with the surface near freezing to marginally above (32-33 deg). Now if 850 was above freezing I could see rain, but I'm having a hard time buying it with a freezing to marginally above surface. Would expect wet snow instead. But maybe there's another warm layer further up that I'm not seeing but I doubt it. Watch for bust potential in the western part of the coastal plain, could get more than expected (3-5 vs forecast 1-2) or we could get less should the rain verify. I am more confident on a period of rain by the immediate coast due to ocean influence, but it could surprise us, so I say watch it regardless. Pretty confident on 3-6" in NJ north of 80 and NEPA/ SW HV.

I was thinking this same thing looking at the temp profiles on the models. Any above freezing temps in central NJ seems confined to the surface if even there. Mostly below freezing at all layers with no warm nose aloft (in interior NJ). This makes me think that IF models are right about that we stay all snow which I think could be difference between a 1-2” event and a 3-5”. That said, if I had a dollar for every time a clipper was to pick up additional energy once it hit the coast and it didn’t - well, I’d have quite a few dollars. So I still think 1-3 is the safe bet.
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Re: January 16th-17th Snow Event

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