JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

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JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 25, 2018 7:39 am

Below is the evolution of the euro for this time frame.  Overnight it through an inverted or Norlun trough into the soln possibilities.  Other models gotten closer to something as well.  With modeling time and time again underestimating the strength of the northern short waves and since this short wave is still 60-72 hrs from making it on shore in the west this is def something to cont to monitor.  Lets keep maps and discussions for this event here and cont discussion the pattern flip and any other potential storm chances for February in the LR thread.  



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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:03 am

I think atm this favors north of me
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by amugs on Thu Jan 25, 2018 11:06 am

Pretty Large IVT by 12Z GFS , play the scratch off better chance than this happening over NJ iMO


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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Thu Jan 25, 2018 11:18 am


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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 25, 2018 11:29 am

CMC interesting at H5




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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
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Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Thu Jan 25, 2018 11:47 am

12z GFS was beautiful lol. 3 snow events in week
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:15 pm

UKIE:




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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:15 pm


Euros continued evolution. Digging a little deeper into Tenn valley. IVT axis shifts south compared to 00z. This means nothing however as IVT's are diff to pinpoint 12-24hrs out let alone 4days.







_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by amugs on Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:22 pm

DEEP THUNDER from SS and 33&rain


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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:33 pm

amugs wrote:DEEP THUNDER from SS and 33&rain

Wowe a foot plus in that spot in NJ, that would be quite the jackpot if it verified verbatim which it wont.
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:41 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:DEEP THUNDER from SS and 33&rain

Wowe a foot plus in that spot in NJ, that would be quite the jackpot if it verified verbatim which it wont.


HEY...WATCH IT THERE BUDDY...WHERE DO I SIGN...THAT PURPLE SPOT IS RIGHT OVER MY HOUSE!! affraid Smile Smile
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:24 pm

Ive always loved Zee Germans






_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by rb924119 on Thu Jan 25, 2018 7:32 pm

Sorry, Scott, but I just don't see this one happening :/ hence why I've been so quiet lol

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by rb924119 on Thu Jan 25, 2018 7:45 pm

Actually, correction to my previous statement: I initially didn't think this one would happen. I have not been paying close attention to it the last several days, so I retract my previous statement. I cannot honestly comment. Carry on lol

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:05 pm

EPO+, AO+, NAO+, La Niña base state, SOI consistently in the upper teens and 20’s, MJO in phase 5, progressive patter. Why would it happen?  But it’s  close enough to talk about and it’s happened in shitty patterns before. told ya

We track!  afro What a Face


Last edited by sroc4 on Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:03 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
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March 20th-22nd 11.8"
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by dad4twoboys on Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:20 pm

sroc4 wrote:EPO+, AO+, NAO+, SOI consistently in the upper teens and 20’s, MJO in phase 5, progressive patter. Why would it happen?  But it’s  close enough to talk about and it’s happened in shitty patterns before. told ya

We track!  afro What a Face

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:17 pm

sroc4 wrote:Ive always loved Zee Germans



"The Germans" was also the funniest Fawlty Towers episode of them all.

True.
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by docstox12 on Fri Jan 26, 2018 5:25 am

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Ive always loved Zee Germans



"The Germans" was also the funniest Fawlty Towers episode of them all.

True.

100% agree Bob! John Cleese goose stepping around the dining room.Hilarious episode from a hilarious show!

Doc on to something in the long range, NWS sniffing something out too, 30% chance Monday night, 40% Tuesday and 30% Tuesday night.They are talking a possible coastal here.As Doc said, we track!!!!!
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:38 am

Cmc was a huge storm last night too but for pa and New England.
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:04 am

With an aweful pattern no one is expecting this to work out but things are just close enough where not that much has to change for it to snow in our area. I’m telling you if the northern stream trough is a little faster than modeled it could be game on. Keep expectations low but don’t give up on this. I’m telling you

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:43 am

I added this to the SCI at 2%. Low confidence of at least 1" accumulation but these types of events could drastically change in a 24-hour period.

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:16 am

sroc4 wrote:With an aweful pattern no one is expecting this to work out but things are just close enough where not that much has to change for it to snow in our area. I’m telling you if the northern stream trough is a little faster than modeled it could be game on. Keep expectations low but don’t give up on this. I’m telling you

Im with you Sroc....keep tracking...and keep those expectations low...maybe have a few surprises like the last hit we had... Smile ps...did you ever get all your luggage back? what a fiasco for so many people!
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Jan 26, 2018 11:11 am

GFS looks cold supports snow to the coast.
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Jan 26, 2018 11:13 am

Big jump. Northwest 6z vs 12z
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by algae888 on Fri Jan 26, 2018 11:49 am

All models with a nice shift Northwest today. Probably has something to do with better sampling even though the low is still offshore in the Pacific Northwest. The ukie being the best of the bunch with a nice 3 to 6 inch event for most of the area
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

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