JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:03 pm

however, it's not necessarily more east, but the LP doesnt organize and stays elongated causing the precip shield not to be as expansive to the west
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:06 pm

UGHHHGHGHGHGHGHGHG
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:28 pm

Yeah, shows no love from the coastal, just a tease from the energy coming from the west, maybe a dusting

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:29 pm

Hi RES is a little better but still east of 18z
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by Math23x7 on Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:24 pm

0Z RGEM not much better

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:03 am

Today's 6z runs seem to have taken a jog west, if it holds or trends further westward, eastern areas (NJ coast and LI) could be in for a surprise light accumulation, some snow showers could make it to the PA border but I don't expect any accum out here.
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:17 am

NYC on eastward could have a surprise coating to an inch with this. Well see.

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:22 am

sroc4 wrote:NYC on eastward could have a surprise coating to an inch with this.  Well see.  

Looks to me most areas will see a general C-1"

Timing is late tonight through most of Tuesday morning.

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:55 am


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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:57 am

12z NAM is completely dry
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:03 am

Trough looks neutral already.  


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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:11 am

Great video from Rayno last night. Talks about why he believes in a more west precip field for tonight and then he touches on the Friday and Monday threats.
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1BRKjLmyRndJw
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:55 am

aiannone wrote:Great video from Rayno last night. Talks about why he believes in a more west precip field for tonight and then he touches on the Friday and Monday threats.
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1BRKjLmyRndJw

wish we had a like button....Smile thanks for sharing
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:34 am

GFS agrees with Rayno's bump west theory and also gives LI some love:

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by amugs on Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:39 am

aiannone wrote:GFS agrees with Rayno's bump west theory and also gives LI some love:


The final NW push.

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:31 pm

Latest Upton Disco...

Main update this morning is to lower pops this afternoon and
overnight.

Latest hi-res models, 12z NAM and current radar trends, it
appears most of the precipitation remains offshore. Any
precipitation that does fall this afternoon will be light, and
could start off as a few sprinkles before changing over to light
snow as colder air advects in aloft. Have removed the likely
POPs and will keep just chance POPs in the forecast.
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:35 pm

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:34 pm

HRRR showing an inch or two for eastern LI.  I will hold out small hope for  a C-1" but wont hold my breath.  Soundings indicate cold enough to stick





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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:37 pm

sroc4 wrote:HRRR showing an inch or two for eastern LI.  I will hold out small hope for  a C-1" but wont hold my breath.  Soundings indicate cold enough to stick





That HRRR sim radar would literally mirror Ryano's thought on the precip field. Will be interesting to see if he's right
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:50 pm

I didnt actually watch it yet. Now I have to

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 29.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:50 pm

Precip does seem to breaking out decently far west

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by amugs on Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:09 pm

Good video by Rayno - I'll take my 24 flurriies and run and want the back end storm an then next weeks and the following weeks to produce.

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:07 pm

Flurries starting here
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:21 pm

aiannone wrote:Flurries starting here

Its prob just going to be me and you Alex..lol

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 29.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:50 pm

sroc4 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Flurries starting here

Its prob just going to be me and you Alex..lol

False. I’m here with you guys. Radar looks surprisingly good all the way through Jersey down to DC. Any chance for a 2” surprise. (I use that line on my wife a lot) Wink
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

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