JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:56 pm

latest SREF mean is 4.79” for Islip. About an inch higher than the last run. Interesting that it went up but latest NAM went drier. Usually they follow. 0z runs tonight will be interesting. Energy should be decently sampled also.
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by syosnow94 on Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:45 pm

I’m with sro. NWS not buying it. They have Providence to Red Sox Suck 4”+
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by amugs on Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:10 pm

RGEM Boyaahhhh !!
Is it onto something or did SROC hijack this model and use his kids crayons to color this map??



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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by SnowForest on Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:21 pm

amugs wrote:RGEM Boyaahhhh !!
Is it onto something or did SROC hijack this model and use his kids crayons to color this map??



Wow, that looks great. Am I correct in assuming that ratios will be at 10:1? If so, that means those in bright green would have 4-6 inches. Sign me up!

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:33 pm

anyone around...
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:04 pm

0z Suite:

GFS 0z:


GFS 18z:


NAM 0z:


NAM 18z:


CMC 0z:


CMC 12z:


SREF 21z:


Looks like a tick west with the 0z guidance. Energy should be sampled by now so will be interesting to see what tomorrow's guidance does


Last edited by aiannone on Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:12 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by syosnow94 on Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:10 pm

No Frank posts, no rb posts, no aMugs harping on it. Doesn’t feel like anything promising
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:13 pm

syosnow94 wrote:No Frank posts, no rb posts, no aMugs harping on it. Doesn’t feel like anything promising

Geez, just a Syos post about there not being any posts. Snow potential wise that is disheartening.
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by syosnow94 on Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:27 pm

Your avatar is soooooo creepy CP
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by billg315 on Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:07 am

I think I had too much to drink already. Goodnight.
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:38 am

syosnow94 wrote:Your avatar is soooooo creepy CP

Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:18 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:09 am

I'm seeing a progressive trend today, most models showing the storm remaining disconnected and disorganized. With the exception of CMC ticking west, a decent UKIE, and some SREF members, it's mostly a non-event. This doesn't mean a storm still couldn't form, it will be there, but apparently weak. Will monitor today for last minute changes but it doesn't look great as of now besides for some backend snow showers coming thru with the clipper system. So close to a phase with the coastal but no cigar.
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by sroc4 on Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:04 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:I'm seeing a progressive trend today, most models showing the storm remaining disconnected and disorganized. With the exception of CMC ticking west, a decent UKIE, and some SREF members, it's mostly a non-event. This doesn't mean a storm still couldn't form, it will be there, but apparently weak. Will monitor today for last minute changes but it doesn't look great as of now besides for some backend snow showers coming thru with the clipper system. So close to a phase with the coastal but no cigar.

I would have to agree with this Tom.  I got a little encouraged last night when I saw the RGEM/CMC and a subtle tick west with some of the other models, but the reality is that phasing and precip expansion from a deepening coastal is going to occurring just a tad bit too late as the low passes east of the BM it appears.  The dynamics just aren't there as the energy passes off the coast with the trough likely to still be in a positive orientation.  There may be some light precip esp for coastal sections, but with light precip you don't get the dynamic cooling.  Eventhough 925 & 850 looks to be cold enough surface temps along the coast look to be mid 30's +/- so maybe there will be some light snow showers that don't amount to much along the I-95 corridor with a coating possible on colder surfaces.  This really should come as no surprise, although I wont lie and say I'm not a little disappointed, as the pattern was never ready for this to materialize and expectations were always to remain low with this one.  I personally consider this a win in a sense that it was something recognized as a mere potential 10-11days out in an overall crappy pattern and here we are 24hr-36hrs out talking about how it was close. (although I'm sure there are some of you who would argue it never was close).  Yes it was.  Close to a 1-3" event for some for sure.  And it still is close, but likely not close enough.  

In reality its nothing gained nothing lost.  There is still a very small window for last minute changes back west and a stronger SLP with an expanded precip shield, but I'm not counting on much.  With that said get out while you can as this ship is going down and Im staying with it.  lol


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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:53 am

12z CMC won’t back down lol

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:17 pm

where is NYC getting their weather from lol

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by docstox12 on Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:25 pm

aiannone wrote:where is NYC getting their weather from lol


Probably guys who are helping other guys get overtime,LOL!
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by Math23x7 on Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:44 pm

aiannone wrote:where is NYC getting their weather from lol


Taxpayers money well spent....

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:56 pm

12z Euro running. A bit west through 33
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:58 pm

12z:


0z:

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by algae888 on Sun Jan 28, 2018 2:03 pm

Ukie is 1 to 4" from Northeast New Jersey East through Eastern Long Island highest amount East all models ticked West at 12 Z wouldn't take much more of a tick West to get some snow into the area Monday night into Tuesday morning
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:02 pm

18z NAM running west through 25
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:03 pm

18z:


12z:

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:07 pm

Well hello

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:09 pm


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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by algae888 on Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:11 pm

Yes Alex the nam is way west of 12 Z
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

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