February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

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Post by aiannone on Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:13 pm

So do we get a backend surprise? 850s say yes. Do we trust that or the sfc line haha?February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible - Page 3 E34bf810
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Post by rb924119 on Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:45 pm

aiannone wrote:So do we get a backend surprise? 850s say yes. Do we trust that or the sfc line haha?February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible - Page 3 E34bf810

No. All of the isentropic lift, which will be the primary forcing mechanism this time, will be ahead of the front. Whatever we get on the front end will be it, aside from any lagging light snow showers. I'm still suspicious of this system, as time and time again we have seen the precip shut down before any true changeover of significance occurs in events like this one, and still think modeling is too bearish on the warmth (especially if the secondary development pops in line with how I envision(ed) it, but I'm clearly on my own island. NOT to be confused with Revis Island. However, my preliminary analysis from several days ago was not too far off, and given the lack of time that I've had to forecast this event and others, am not going to beat myself up about it. We get what we get.

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Post by Radz on Sun Feb 04, 2018 6:33 am

Pretty healthy radar currently, I'd normally be a happy camper right about now! Not sure what the surface reports are indicating, or if anything is reaching the ground, but still holding out hope to see some snow here (imb) before the change over once the precip moves in...
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Post by WeatherBob on Sun Feb 04, 2018 7:17 am

Well, since this is a busy travel day for a lot of people visiting friends for the game, I hope it starts as rain and ends as rain so people can travel safely. Its going to be a general rain event anyway.
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:16 am

Moderate snow in Flemington but 36 degrees. Won't last long.
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Post by rb924119 on Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:58 am

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Moderate snow in Flemington but 36 degrees. Won't last long.

Disagree. The thermal profile is sufficiently cold enough to support snow for at least period of time before the change. As of now, my suspicions about this system are being shown to have merit. Everybody north and west of Point Pleasant should experience a "surprise accumulation" of snow.

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Post by aiannone on Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:03 pm

Unfortunately it’s 41 here on the island. DP is close to 40. Not going to snow here
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Post by algae888 on Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:04 pm

rb924119 wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Moderate snow in Flemington but 36 degrees. Won't last long.

Disagree. The thermal profile is sufficiently cold enough to support snow for at least period of time before the change. As of now, my suspicions about this system are being shown to have merit. Everybody north and west of Point Pleasant should experience a "surprise accumulation" of snow.
Yeah rb 850 s are still plenty cold precipitation knocking on the door for the city could see a surprise little snow before the changeover as I said the other day we needed precipitation to get here as quickly as possible to have any chance of snow on the front end
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Post by algae888 on Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:06 pm

aiannone wrote:Unfortunately it’s 41 here on the island. DP is close to 40. Not going to snow here
Alex I'm at 38 with a dew point of 20 if precipitation comes in the next few hours I should be snow before the changeover according to radar precip knocking on my door
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Post by rb924119 on Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:06 pm

I also find it funny how nothing is picking up on the fact that our secondary low has already developed in response to the southern stream energy over eastern S.C. This was something I mentioned way back in my initial analysis of this system as part of the reason why I believed the thermal profiles were being depicted to be much too warm. Anyway, gonna be interesting to see how that initial analysis holds up, but at least as of now, I think most of us are going turn frowns upside down, even if only for a little while Smile

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Post by aiannone on Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:08 pm

Current 850:
February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible - Page 3 14d2a210

Current 925
February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible - Page 3 090b0310
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:21 pm

Still moderate snow. No accumulation but very pretty. Flakes getting bigger. Had been 35, went done to 33, now back to 35.
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Post by aiannone on Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:24 pm

It’s amazing how quickly the arctic air gets eroded on the coast. Dews were in the teens nearly 12 hours ago with a high of 27 yesterday. Now temp 45 and dew of 45! SAD!
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Post by Vinnydula on Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:31 pm

It's snowing? 40.1
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Post by Radz on Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:34 pm

Light snow 37.8°
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Post by aiannone on Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:35 pm

Vinnydula wrote:It's snowing? 40.1

You’re snowing at 40.1?
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Post by Vinnydula on Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:37 pm

Dropped now to 39.8 and yes its snowing
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Post by algae888 on Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:39 pm

light snow down to 36* dp up to 29*.
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Post by aiannone on Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:42 pm

Vinnydula wrote:Dropped now to 39.8 and yes its snowing

What is everyone’s dew point?
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Post by algae888 on Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:42 pm

aiannone wrote:
Vinnydula wrote:It's snowing? 40.1

You’re snowing at 40.1?
alex I have seen snow with temps as high as the mid 40's. as long as it is cold enough aloft it will snow with temps at 40*
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Post by algae888 on Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:45 pm

sleeting now with some snow mixed in. this will not last long however.
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Post by aiannone on Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:46 pm

algae888 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
Vinnydula wrote:It's snowing? 40.1

You’re snowing at 40.1?
alex I have seen snow with temps as high as the mid 40's. as long as it is cold enough aloft it will snow with temps at 40*

Interesting. I’ll see what it does in my area when the precip moves in. Right now I’m getting sunny breaks, which is spiking temps lol
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Post by Vinnydula on Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:53 pm

40.5 all snow atm
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Post by frank 638 on Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:56 pm

Light rain occasional mixed with wet snow . Getting tired of snow to rain storms

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Post by algae888 on Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:58 pm

frank 638 wrote:Light rain occasional mixed with wet snow . Getting tired of snow to rain storms
frank we haven't had one snow to rain event yet this year. today and wens will be our first two.
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