February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by aiannone on Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:59 pm

DP up to 48. Unbelievable. It’s getting tropical out there. And sun is out!
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:11 pm

Got a tiny minute of snow and sleet at 40+ degrees, odd. Too bad it couldnt be the past 2 days cold, what a kick to the junk lol
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by Vinnydula on Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:14 pm

38.4 heavy snow. Not sticking
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by algae888 on Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:15 pm

steady snow and sleet big flakes. 2" so far per james method of measurement. otherwise not sticking. Laughing
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:42 pm

Mix precipitation but down to 33
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by rb924119 on Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:02 pm

And the HRRR continues trending colder, as it now brings accumulations into NYC. Though very minor, the colder solutions could be rearing their head.

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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by aiannone on Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:23 pm

rb924119 wrote:And the HRRR continues trending colder, as it now brings accumulations into NYC. Though very minor, the colder solutions could be rearing their head.

Pic? And are you guessing the temp is going to drop bc it’s 46 here now!
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by hyde345 on Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:31 pm

32* and light snow. Sticking to colder surfaces.
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:23 pm

rb924119 wrote:I also find it funny how nothing is picking up on the fact that our secondary low has already developed in response to the southern stream energy over eastern S.C. This was something I mentioned way back in my initial analysis of this system as part of the reason why I believed the thermal profiles were being depicted to be much too warm. Anyway, gonna be interesting to see how that initial analysis holds up, but at least as of now, I think most of us are going turn frowns upside down, even if only for a little while Smile

32.6 and light snow.

You may be right
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by aiannone on Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:25 pm

Rain drops starting here in the former snowtown of St. James lol. Temp 45
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by Radz on Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:43 pm

rain now 35.4°, no accumulation...
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by dkodgis on Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:59 pm

An inch here. Hovering at 32. Power was out for two hours. Back on.
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by Vinnydula on Sun Feb 04, 2018 7:16 pm

33 heavy rain Sad
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Feb 04, 2018 7:54 pm

Interesting day today.. driving down the GSP south at noon today, drove through snow squalls of fine small flakes at 40°. Got closer to the Outerbridge Crossing and it became big wet snowflakes at 39°. Then it became sleet as we crossed into Staten Island, still at about 39°. Coming home at 4pm rain at 36°.... crazy. Heavy rain in the last hour or so, up to .54" so far.

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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by rb924119 on Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:34 pm

It is NASTY here in Fishkill right now. 0.1" snow/sleet with 0.05-0.1" ice accretion, as a moderate true wintry mix continues with temperatures 30-31°. Forecast from the NWS was for pure rain and temps in the lower 40s - with weather like this I could only wish that verified lol would have saved me a near-death experience on my way out of the gym as I nearly went down ahahaha watch that first step, folks, it could be a doozy lmfaoooo looks like a winter wonderland in the street lights though, with the ice on the trees and everything. At least it's pretty lol well, kind of. The fact that it's still mixing outside kind of detracts and would only be improved if it was snow or not doing anything, but glass half full Smile either way, the cold has definitely shown itself to have been under-modeled, at least locally here.

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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by jimv45 on Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:43 pm

In Hopewell jct 35 mostly rain,side roads slick main roads good.

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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by aiannone on Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:50 pm

rb924119 wrote:It is NASTY here in Fishkill right now. 0.1" snow/sleet with 0.05-0.1" ice accretion, as a moderate true wintry mix continues with temperatures 30-31°. Forecast from the NWS was for pure rain and temps in the lower 40s - with weather like this I could only wish that verified lol would have saved me a near-death experience on my way out of the gym as I nearly went down ahahaha watch that first step, folks, it could be a doozy lmfaoooo looks like a winter wonderland in the street lights though, with the ice on the trees and everything. At least it's pretty lol well, kind of. The fact that it's still mixing outside kind of detracts and would only be improved if it was snow or not doing anything, but glass half full Smile either way, the cold has definitely shown itself to have been under-modeled, at least locally here.

Makes me wonder. If this event with a lack of HP to the north, far west low track and we still had colder than expected temps not far from the coast. Wednesday storm will have a HP to the north and a much further SE low track. Hmmmmmm
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by rb924119 on Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:18 pm

aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:It is NASTY here in Fishkill right now. 0.1" snow/sleet with 0.05-0.1" ice accretion, as a moderate true wintry mix continues with temperatures 30-31°. Forecast from the NWS was for pure rain and temps in the lower 40s - with weather like this I could only wish that verified lol would have saved me a near-death experience on my way out of the gym as I nearly went down ahahaha watch that first step, folks, it could be a doozy lmfaoooo looks like a winter wonderland in the street lights though, with the ice on the trees and everything. At least it's pretty lol well, kind of. The fact that it's still mixing outside kind of detracts and would only be improved if it was snow or not doing anything, but glass half full Smile either way, the cold has definitely shown itself to have been under-modeled, at least locally here.

Makes me wonder. If this event with a lack of HP to the north, far west low track and we still had colder than expected temps not far from the coast. Wednesday storm will have a HP to the north and a much further SE low track. Hmmmmmm

Yeah. I haven't, nor will I, really be following any event too closely (similarly to this one), so I cannot offer much in the way of additional opinion, but I WILL say that this (to me) is why you need to look at the entire hemispheric setup and analyze all of the features in play. Modeling will not tell you everything, and as we have seen so far this season, is far from perfect, even as the event is unfolding. One can argue that the reason the cold hung tougher in this case was due to mesoscale features, while another can argue that based on the hemispheric pattern it allowed the cold to hang around. I do not know what the correct answer is; I can offer a hypothesis, but beyond that it's up for debate. In either case, it's certainly interesting!!

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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by aiannone on Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:51 pm

First off, glad the Pats didn’t win. Second all this precip going to waste! Even my weather station says “it’s raining cats and dogs!” 1.25” of rain and full out been downpouring for a good 2 hours. Ponding everywhere. Concerned because of all this standing water that it may not dry up before temps fall to near freezing. Could have black ice in the morning.


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