FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

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FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by sroc4 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:33 pm

Im pretty sure this is credible enough now to have its own thread.  The euro came in pretty much with the best case scenario at 500mb.  Not surprisingly the surface maps agree.





Last edited by sroc4 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:18 pm; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:48 pm

sroc4 wrote:Im pretty sure this is credible enough now to have its own thread.  The euro came in pretty much with the best case scenario at 500mb.  Not surprisingly the surface maps agree.






can you post the surface maps and snow? Let's get one more in here I'll be happy 6+ and I'll be at or above normal.
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by sroc4 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:54 pm

Do not take this as a forecast because I still think things could change. Euro surface maps and snow fall with no ratios for the Jman and others who probably wanted to see it as well.










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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:22 pm

Upton likes the potential. Here is the new update for LI:
SaturdayMostly sunny, with a high near 36.
Saturday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:51 pm

18z NAM looks bullish

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:03 pm

I’m not getting suckered in. Still don’t like the looks of HP and WAR. My next post on this event (or lack thereof) won’t be till Friday evening
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:09 pm

Model guidance has been consistent with keeping the track of the
low off the DELMARVA into the mid Atlantic region Saturday
night, with minor variations from run to run. The low track is
south and east of the benchmark with mainly an all snow event,
may be a light rain at the beginning late Saturday afternoon.

The track of the low will depend on any cold air damming with the
high moving off the northeast coast, and may suppress the track
farther to the south. With the progressive flow, the storm will be
quick moving with the precipitation falling Saturday night, ending
across the east Sunday morning. The higher QPF remains offshore. At
this time there may be around a half inch across Long Island and
southern Connecticut. Do not have high enough confidence at this
time for warning level snow and will not mention in the HWO.
However, there is the potential if the track is shifted to the north.
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by Math23x7 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:56 pm

Given that the high pressure system driving the low would be to our east, the GFS's rainy solution for the coast seems to be more logical at this time.  Also keep in mind that the theme for this winter has been the last minute NW trend.  If that is the case this time around, I would expect the rain/snow line to go that way.

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:08 pm

GFS is a swing and a miss OTS. Can't make this stuff up. I'm not buying that solution.
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:06 pm

0z NAM lookin good
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by Math23x7 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:17 pm

aiannone wrote:0z NAM lookin good

Notice the rain/snow line is now right along the coast as opposed to well off the coast like the 18Z NAM was showing. This looks like a red flag and the start of a trend where the coast sees rain and the snow is north and west.

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by Dunnzoo on Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:23 pm

Math23x7 wrote:
aiannone wrote:0z NAM lookin good

Notice the rain/snow line is now right along the coast as opposed to well off the coast like the 18Z NAM was showing.  This looks like a red flag and the start of a trend where the coast sees rain and the snow is north and west.

Well, it IS our turn Mikey! geek

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by Math23x7 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:31 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:
aiannone wrote:0z NAM lookin good

Notice the rain/snow line is now right along the coast as opposed to well off the coast like the 18Z NAM was showing.  This looks like a red flag and the start of a trend where the coast sees rain and the snow is north and west.

Well, it IS our turn Mikey! geek

Perhaps so far north and west so that only Doc/CP get snow

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by MattyICE on Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:06 pm

Barely any storm at all on the GFS. Still there on CMC, German, and NAM. NAM and German look a bit north and would entertain boundary later issues along the coastal plane, while the GFS is way suppressed. Could be it’s progressive bias.

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by MattyICE on Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:09 pm






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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:00 am

This has been on the models fairly consistenly and progged pretty much to be in the same spot for a while now. I am growing more confident we will see a snow event here. The GFS had it but adjusted south but I think it's the mid range progressive bias kicking in there.

Temps will be marginal, highest snow potential NW of 95 and 287. Rain more likely on immediate coast. (By no means locked in, but stating the precip profile I would expect to see if it materializes.) It is a really transient shot of mild cold (for this time of year anyway) and temps will begin to rise above freezing again pretty much as precip ends. Addtl. flooding concern with how saturated the ground is right now, and the addtl. rain/ quick snowmelt won't make things any better.
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by GreyBeard on Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:51 am

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A progressive flow across the Lower 48, largely dominated by
the southern branch of the polar jet, will undergo
amplification by early next week. A upper trough digs south
across the intermountain west, while a high amplitude ridge
builds off the southeast coast. The latter of which may bring
record warmth to the area next week. First though, a fast moving
winter storm will follow on the heels of a fleeting shot of
cold air Friday night into Saturday.

The GFS is the southernmost operational member in taking low
pressure to the south and east of the area Saturday night into
Sunday morning. It is also weaker than the ECMWF and NAM. This
is likely due to its poor handling of cold air damming east of
the Appalachians as high pressure quickly races to the east on
Saturday. Granted, the location of the high is not ideal for
damming, nor for a moderate to heavy snow event. However, the
fast development of the low along the Mid Atlantic coast
Saturday afternoon, which quickly passes to the southeast, may
only result in a short period of weak onshore flow. A SE flow
along the coast is typically a snow to rain event, but in this
case a rain/snow mix at the onset may go to all snow fairly
quickly as winds shift quickly to the NE. In addition, a deep-
layered W-SW flow does not look to erode the cold air aloft,
with the main question thus being the boundary layer
temperature.

With about quarter to half inch of liquid across the area,
there is the potential for advisory level snows (2 to 4 inches).
Should the ECMWF`s wetter solution come to fruition, possibly a
low end warning event (around 6 inches). The best chance for
this to occur would be along or just inland from the coast due
to the higher QPF forecast, provided the event can be mainly in
the form of snow. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 20s
inland and in the lower 30s along the coast.

Thereafter, a significant warmup ensues through the middle of
next with a deep-layered SW flow to develop as high pressure
strengthens off the eastern seaboard. Highs Tuesday and
Wednesday may get to around 60 across parts of NYC and the
interior, but it will be considerably cooler along the coast due
an onshore flow.

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:38 am

12z NAM rolling. Looks amped
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by nutleyblizzard on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:42 am

aiannone wrote:12z NAM rolling. Looks amped
Looks colder too.
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:46 am

WOW!

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:48 am


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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by nutleyblizzard on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:03 am


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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:04 am

It is going to be a close call where the rain/snow line sets up. A weaker system means colder temps and snow for most people. A stronger / northerly track system will bring rain to the coast while bringing heavy snow to the N&W. I do not like that the cold air mass on Saturday appears stale, and that there is a High Pressure exiting off the coast Saturday afternoon into evening. At this time I would expect more wet than white along the coast and a moderate snow event for those N&W.

I may put out a snow map later today

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by sroc4 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:26 am

Frank_Wx wrote:It is going to be a close call where the rain/snow line sets up. A weaker system means colder temps and snow for most people. A stronger / northerly track system will bring rain to the coast while bringing heavy snow to the N&W. I do not like that the cold air mass on Saturday appears stale, and that there is a High Pressure exiting off the coast Saturday afternoon into evening. At this time I would expect more wet than white along the coast and a moderate snow event for those N&W.

I may put out a snow map later today

Frank I would argue that a stronger system but a track say off the delmarva would actually enhance snow totals along the coast. A stronger system does not necessarily mean the track will be too far north. With an exiting HP the weaker system would more likely lead to a more easterly/southeasterly wind component for longer vs a tighter system would quickly lead to the E to NE component keeping mid levels colder. With a decent jet streak placement and intensity and the H5 modeling of the subtle phasing and stronger N s/w a stronger system is where Im leaning right now.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by algae888 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:27 am

Frank_Wx wrote:It is going to be a close call where the rain/snow line sets up. A weaker system means colder temps and snow for most people. A stronger / northerly track system will bring rain to the coast while bringing heavy snow to the N&W. I do not like that the cold air mass on Saturday appears stale, and that there is a High Pressure exiting off the coast Saturday afternoon into evening. At this time I would expect more wet than white along the coast and a moderate snow event for those N&W.

I may put out a snow map later today
I tend to disagree every model has all layers below freezing except the surface which is hovering just above freezing. The air mass will be very dry the heavier the precipitation the more Dynamic cooling will have. You can add in a Southeast Breeze off water temperatures in the upper 30s at less than 10 miles per hour will have minimal effect. In most cases the position of the high is unfavorable but not this time and at this time of year just my opinion
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

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