FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

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Post by amugs on Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:34 pm

Guys take the torch to Feb obs and discussions please this is the storm thread.

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SREFS!!!!!!!! WETTER

CLOSE UP VIEW

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 6 1A82095A-40F0-437D-B8A9-264BA3342B0A.png.7fe43110b777359f99a1de5a5a61890d

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Post by aiannone on Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:00 pm

amugs wrote:Guys take the torch to Feb obs and discussions please this is the storm thread.

Back to the show
SREFS!!!!!!!! WETTER

CLOSE UP VIEW

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 6 1A82095A-40F0-437D-B8A9-264BA3342B0A.png.7fe43110b777359f99a1de5a5a61890d

is that SREF snow accumulation?
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Post by aiannone on Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:12 pm

0z NAM:
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 6 Captur28
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 6 Captur29
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Post by aiannone on Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:16 pm

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 6 Captur30
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Post by Guest on Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:19 pm

Don’t like the look of the latest SREFS. That’s a big nw shift. The 0z NAM also looks a touch north. Are we beginning to see the nw shift inside of 24 hours that we’ve seen every storm this winter? Me feels uneasy. If I wake up tomorrow to a downgraded wwa then watch out..........

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Post by amugs on Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:39 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Don’t like the look of the latest SREFS. That’s a big nw shift.  The 0z NAM also looks a touch north.  Are we beginning to see the nw shift inside of 24 hours that we’ve seen every storm this winter?  Me feels uneasy. If I wake up tomorrow to a downgraded wwa then watch out..........

Syo you on LI and south of te Driscoll Beidge have to watch out if that's what u mean. If u mean you will blow a gasket, this is old.
SREFS were snow from Driscoll Bridge N.
This is sick warning level niggle look here.
Sorry SNJ and LI

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 6 5a878534a91c4

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Post by amugs on Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:45 pm

HIRES NAM SV

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 6 IMG_1305.PNG.68813b8a5d188f3808be747e4bb77cd8

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Post by MattyICE on Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:45 pm

Wondering if Kutchera will really work out well for this storm. Not sure they’re being generous enough.

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Post by Math23x7 on Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:46 pm

If the trend continues, it wouldn't shock me if NYC sees mainly rain. It won't be all snow until you get past what used to be the Tappan Zee Bridge.

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Post by MattyICE on Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:51 pm

Math, you don’t think that that could place the city under better banding with more dynamic rates/cooling that might countermand the warmth? Haven’t checked soundings at 0z but all day the surface seems to have been the only issue with marginal temps. With 950, 850, etc all looking pretty good.

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Post by amugs on Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:56 pm

Math23x7 wrote:If the trend continues, it wouldn't shock me if NYC sees mainly rain.  It won't be all snow until you get past what used to be the Tappan Zee Bridge.

Math that's a bold call and u seem to go the pessimists route with everyone of these storms. Your talking 287 and N storm. So u just wiped out I 80 burbs in NNJ, no way kid. Lets see what the rgem, gfs and euro show tonight. The trend is jog N and then correct SE a tick as the storm approaches. Alex posted a great post that was from FB with met and genius amateur mets about this storm.
See what Upton says later tonight in their write up if they update it.

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Post by aiannone on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:00 pm

amugs wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:If the trend continues, it wouldn't shock me if NYC sees mainly rain.  It won't be all snow until you get past what used to be the Tappan Zee Bridge.

Math that's a bold call and u seem to go the pessimists route with everyone of these storms. Your talking 287 and N storm. So u just wiped out I 80 burbs in NNJ, no way kid. Lets see what the rgem, gfs and euro show tonight. The trend is jog N and then correct SE a tick as the storm approaches. Alex posted a great post that was from FB with met and genius amateur mets about this storm.
See what Upton says later tonight in their write up if they update it.

If ya guys look at the SFC map i posted from the NAM it's all snow from LI on north
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Post by Math23x7 on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:14 pm

It has been over 24 hours since Frank made a post. Either something happened to him or he's not excited about this snow event.

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Post by aiannone on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:19 pm

HI-Res NAM 850 temps
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 6 Captur31
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Post by Guest on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:23 pm

Plenty cold enough that’s for sure

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Post by amugs on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:28 pm

RGEM nukes Bergen, Esseex, Union and Passaic counties big time!! Zoo if this would happen LOL!
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 6 IMG_1077.PNG.82388f182206f7a85dde88c699ae63bc


FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 6 IMG_1078.PNG.100afea939b1e4285f7b5340d1c1e88f

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 6 IMG_1080.PNG.945714a84adafef3811fbc71005118af


Last edited by amugs on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:30 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Math23x7 on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:29 pm

aiannone wrote:HI-Res NAM 850 temps
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 6 Captur31

The freezing line is too close for comfort.

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Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:31 pm

amugs wrote:RGEM nukes Bergen, Esseex, Union and Passaic counties big time!! Zoo if this would happen LOL!
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 6 IMG_1077.PNG.82388f182206f7a85dde88c699ae63bc


FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 6 IMG_1078.PNG.100afea939b1e4285f7b5340d1c1e88f

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 6 IMG_1080.PNG.945714a84adafef3811fbc71005118af

It would be a sleepless night for sure! Are you around this weekend or taking advantage of long weekend?

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Post by amugs on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:33 pm

Math23x7 wrote:
aiannone wrote:HI-Res NAM 850 temps
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 6 Captur31

The freezing line is too close for comfort.
Fior mom, skins yes and who else?? LI yes but N again of I78 should be fine

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:34 pm

Zoo.suppose to go upstate to a friend's house tomorrow BUT may just have to cancel for its storm but I may get out voted GRRRR!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:39 pm

RGEM

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 6 IMG_1082.PNG.928e80f8e8fd7fb959b8ee59ae6d5df5

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by aiannone on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:42 pm

I think looking at the model precip type is misleading. Other factors such as diabatic cooling will make a big difference in accumulations. It will be a nowcast
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Post by Math23x7 on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:45 pm

The 0Z GFS is closely in alignment to what I was mentioning earlier:

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 6 0zgfsp10

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Post by Guest on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:45 pm

RGEM nukes nobody! 2-4”tops in our area

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Post by aiannone on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:45 pm

NWS reissues WSW for the entire area as of 9:48pm. Accumulations of 4-6”
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