FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

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Post by amugs on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:45 pm

Here you go Math and Syo
Good for SHIT model GFS says what snow

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 7 Gfs_asnow_neus_7

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Post by Guest on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:46 pm

Math23x7 wrote:The 0Z GFS is closely in alignment to what I was mentioning earlier:

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 7 0zgfsp10

Hope this is not the correct solution. RGEM 2-4” now this. pale

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Post by aiannone on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:47 pm

Math23x7 wrote:The 0Z GFS is closely in alignment to what I was mentioning earlier:

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 7 0zgfsp10

The GFS has been thrown out for this event. Too strung out therefore no dynamic cooling and as a result warm air floods in
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Post by amugs on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:51 pm

No meoscale feature on GFS that ALL models have now.
Syo just because u aren't getting barney like me, zoo, Jan ,Algaee r 4" plus out of this storm and in between 50/60 days that's a nuke job in my book. 10" plus is for u cause you guys have been spoiled by such the last 10 or so years.

Peace out

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Post by Math23x7 on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:52 pm

People were calling out the GFS for "Juno" regarding NYC snowfall. Tom (NjWeatherGuy) has mentioned this in the past.

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Post by aiannone on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:58 pm

Math23x7 wrote:People were calling out the GFS for "Juno" regarding NYC snowfall.  Tom (NjWeatherGuy) has mentioned this in the past.

Mikey you are going to base tmw’s forecast around its track record with one storm lol. Choosing to believe or not believe a model goes beyond just looking at its track record. You have to see that nearly all models take into account diabatic cooling, a vigorous shortwave that comes in enhancing precip and cooling the sfc. All of which the GFS doesn’t have. There is more to forecasting than going on stormvista and looking at green and blue shading


Last edited by aiannone on Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Guest on Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:08 pm

I think a few of you need to chill out. The NWS has a WSW. For 4-6” locally 6-8”. I’m not expecting much to be honest. But that does not mean a 3-4” event is a nuke job when the forecast is fire close to double that and Frank even has us at 3-6” locally higher. I don’t need to relax or peace out. I am alreadt

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Post by NjWeatherGuy on Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:52 pm

I think the GFS is out to lunch here. Fairly strong confidence in a stripe of 4-8" about 10-20mi NW of 95, possibly reaching down to 95 and surrounding areas itself but less confidence to the SE. In that bullseye area to the NW we have the combo of likely a heavy period of precip and cold enough temps down to the surface to support snow tomorrow evening, likely to remain an all snow event for CNJ into E-PA and possibly the northern and western part of LI. However, there I am less confident due to potential mixing issues, but I'd say more likely than not to be a moderate snowfall there, probably 3-6". In short, I'm pretty much in line with where the NWS has it's WSW likely to turn to warnings early tomorrow morning.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy on Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:56 pm

aiannone wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:People were calling out the GFS for "Juno" regarding NYC snowfall.  Tom (NjWeatherGuy) has mentioned this in the past.

Mikey you are going to base tmw’s forecast around its track record with one storm lol. Choosing to believe or not believe a model goes beyond just looking at its track record. You have to see that nearly all models take into account diabatic cooling, a vigorous shortwave that comes in enhancing precip and cooling the sfc. All of which the GFS doesn’t have. There is more to forecasting than going on stormvista and looking at green and blue shading

The GFS isn't a good model for this setup, I agree with those saying to toss. Especially considering the consistent modeling by all the other models in where the cold enough temps and heavy precip as well as good RH which supports the snow growth. This area has always been E-PA (Bucks area) CNJ and likely into the northern half of LI.
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Post by Math23x7 on Sat Feb 17, 2018 12:00 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
aiannone wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:People were calling out the GFS for "Juno" regarding NYC snowfall.  Tom (NjWeatherGuy) has mentioned this in the past.

Mikey you are going to base tmw’s forecast around its track record with one storm lol. Choosing to believe or not believe a model goes beyond just looking at its track record. You have to see that nearly all models take into account diabatic cooling, a vigorous shortwave that comes in enhancing precip and cooling the sfc. All of which the GFS doesn’t have. There is more to forecasting than going on stormvista and looking at green and blue shading

The GFS isn't a good model for this setup, I agree with those saying to toss. Especially considering the consistent modeling by all the other models in where the cold enough temps and heavy precip as well as good RH which supports the snow growth. This area has always been E-PA (Bucks area) CNJ and likely into the northern half of LI.

A actually feel a bit better now that I have heard what you have to say. Wink

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Post by aiannone on Sat Feb 17, 2018 12:42 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:I think the GFS is out to lunch here. Fairly strong confidence in a stripe of 4-8" about 10-20mi NW of 95, possibly reaching down to 95 and surrounding areas itself but less confidence to the SE. In that bullseye area to the NW we have the combo of likely a heavy period of precip and cold enough temps down to the surface to support snow tomorrow evening, likely to remain an all snow event for CNJ into E-PA and possibly the northern and western part of LI. However, there I am less confident due to potential mixing issues, but I'd say more likely than not to be a moderate snowfall there, probably 3-6". In short, I'm pretty much in line with where the NWS has it's WSW likely to turn to warnings early tomorrow morning.

While I could be wrong, I challenge whether they will be warnings or advisories. I am leaning more towards the advisory. I know for Upton criteria, Warning is 6” or more in a 12 hour period. While this will be a short duration event and the 12 hour threshold will be used over the 24 hour threshold, I believe 6” is the max accumulation they will predict so confidence in meeting 6” area wide will be low. Advisory criteria is 3” or more in a 12hr period. Much more likely. So my opinion: Area wide advisory for 3-5” with isolated amounts to 6”
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Post by aiannone on Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:06 am

Euro
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 7 Def61a10
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Post by sroc4 on Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:28 am

sroc4 wrote:Here is my snow map.   I have not had as much time as I normally do to analyze this system.  The previous 2-3 systems have had an almost identical set up with mostly cold rain and little to no accumulation along the coast.  Therefore, Mikey could be correct in that this time may be no different.  Like the prev systems there will in fact be an HP retreating quickly east as the system approaches, and there will be an initial shift easterly and south easterly along the coast as the surface LP initially gets organized as it exits the EC right around the Delmarva; however, There are a few factors that I believe make this system dufferent than the prev ones.  First I believe this system is going to be much more organized/deeper/deepening than the prev ones as indicated by the strength of the northern vort., combined with some decent, but not great upper level jet streak dynamics.  Second the system appears that it will take a track off the DelMarVa and pass just S&E of the BM.  Prev systems tracks have been in much tighter.  This should allow the colder half of the baroclinic zone to remain far enough south.  With a deepening low, as apposed to weak LP simply traversing east, you likely will get the winds quickly shifting back out of the NE as the LP deepens and passes south of the area, and you'll get enhanced lift via marginal upper level dynamics, and baroclinicity; therefore, dynamic cooling in heavier bands will come into play along the coast keeping things colder.  The combined effects of the aforementioned reasons should keep the coast could enough to accumulate snow.  That said the last minute shift NW with the track is def a possibility and would cause my map below to bust along the coast so keep that in mind.  

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 7 Storm_10
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 7 Snow_m11

Absolutely no change to my map. Confidence growing that this verifies

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy on Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:45 am

aiannone wrote:Euro
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 7 Def61a10

Very similar to NAM and high res RGEM (HDRPS) pretty much agree at this point. Very consistent with the bubble of 5-6" right over my area. Also your map lines up with my thinking as well. May post my own map this morning assuming I'm not too tired from my shift.
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Post by Math23x7 on Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:37 am

3Z SREF lowers snow totals significantly for LaGuardia. The mean went from 5.03" to 3.37". Let's see what the other short range models have to say.

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Post by Math23x7 on Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:27 am

The 12-km and 3-km NAM at 6Z both have the rain/snow line further north. In addition, the latest HRRR has the rain/snow line into parts of NYC...

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Post by aiannone on Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:50 am

Warning for LIE on north.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:18 am

Upgraded to warning. 2nd of the year. If I recall that's pretty low amount of warning snows for up to mid Feb but maybe I'm wrong.
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Post by docstox12 on Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:19 am

Downgraded to WWA.Need a 25 mile jog to the N and W to get into the banding.I'm expecting 3 inches and will be happy with 5.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:42 am

WWA for 4-6 inches here. WSW's to the south are for 4-7, technically WSW are suppose to be for 6 inches or more of snow in Uptons area but I suppose since their forecasting 4-7 in those areas under a WSW it averages to 5.5 their rounding up to 6 which makes this as minimal a WSW as you can get in this area. In this God awful pattern though it's pretty impressive we even have this potential.

IMBY I llike the 7 over my head from the latest 12K NAM run. Looks good too me.

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Post by docstox12 on Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:51 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:WWA for 4-6 inches here. WSW's to the south are for 4-7, technically WSW are suppose to be for 6 inches or more of snow in Uptons area but I suppose since their forecasting 4-7 in those areas under a WSW it averages to 5.5 their rounding up to 6 which makes this as minimal a WSW as you can get in this area. In this God awful pattern though it's pretty impressive we even have this potential.

IMBY I llike the 7 over my head from the latest 12K NAM run. Looks good too me.

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 7 7e42b210

PERFECT, CP, that latest NAM run has that N and W jog we need! Yes, enjoy this snow while it lasts, most of it will be gone by Monday evening.We need every flake up here.WAY below normal in snow total with the dead of the winter over on Wednesday.Even if we get that 7, we will still be around 20 inches short of even a NORMAL winter up here.That's a tall order to happen in March.So far the winter is a C+ for cold and a D for snow.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:52 am

Uptons latest thinking. Would be nice hit for the whole area if it happens. I see now why the WSW for much of the area as they're forecasting most sections just make it to the 6 inch threshold. As I stated earlier it is impressive to evolve from what has been a bad pattern.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Feb 17, 2018 7:00 am

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:WWA for 4-6 inches here. WSW's to the south are for 4-7, technically WSW are suppose to be for 6 inches or more of snow in Uptons area but I suppose since their forecasting 4-7 in those areas under a WSW it averages to 5.5 their rounding up to 6 which makes this as minimal a WSW as you can get in this area. In this God awful pattern though it's pretty impressive we even have this potential.

IMBY I llike the 7 over my head from the latest 12K NAM run. Looks good too me.

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 7 7e42b210

PERFECT, CP, that latest NAM run has that N and W jog we need! Yes, enjoy this snow while it lasts, most of it will be gone by Monday evening.We need every flake up here.WAY below normal in snow total with the dead of the winter over on Wednesday.Even if we get that 7, we will still be around 20 inches short of even a NORMAL winter up here.That's a tall order to happen in March.So far the winter is a C+ for cold and a D for snow.

I agree almost 100% Doc except I maybe give a C- to the snow and a C+ for temps with both in a negative trajectory grade wise especially the temps. Will probably grade those a C- by months end.
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Post by docstox12 on Sat Feb 17, 2018 7:08 am

That's right CP, the negative trajectory.next week's torch burns another week.
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Post by Dtone on Sat Feb 17, 2018 7:14 am

NWS still holding out with a Watch for southern nyc (Staten Island, Brooklyn, Southern Queens) and southern Nassau & Suffolk. I squeezed into warning criteria.

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