FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

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Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:05 pm

The difference between this storm and other mixing events we had this year that i caution is, with this particular storm we will not have 850s and 925s going above freezing. Mid and upper levels stay cold. It's the sfc which may go slightly above, but with heavy precip occurring at night, that may mitigate this issue. Plus we have seen all winter how poorly models handle the low level cold air.
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Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:11 pm

Bernie likes 4-6" plus for lower hudson valley, 3-5" for NNJ, and 1-3" at most for NYC and LI due to mixing with rain
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Post by sroc4 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:51 pm

aiannone wrote:Bernie likes 4-6" plus for lower hudson valley, 3-5" for NNJ, and 1-3" at most for NYC and LI due to mixing with rain

reasonable call

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by amugs on Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:09 pm

This is going to be a nine esque typical snowstorm where peeps N&W of I95 will bank. Not saying other areas will not see snow but the likelehood of this being warning level snows are slim for those areas at this time

Hats off to Scott for his call a week out.
What a way to run a torch!!!

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Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:24 pm

EPAWA First Call. Tricky for LI lol
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Post by sroc4 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:38 pm

amugs wrote:This is going to be a nine esque typical snowstorm where peeps N&W of I95 will bank. Not saying other areas will not see snow but the likelehood of this being warning level snows are slim for those areas at this time

Hats off to Scott for his call a week out.
What a way to run a torch!!!

Thanks Mugs...Feb 7th here it was :Take a look at the 12z GEFS too. Really starting to look nice. Dare I say it....storm signal for the 16th-17th(+/- a day) time frame? Could it be enough to dig a northern s/w into the pattern more so than what we've seen? Preliminary general idea. That is all.

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:06 pm

Ryan Hanrahan from NBC Connecticut
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 C8a42210
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Post by sroc4 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:27 pm

aiannone wrote:Ryan Hanrahan from NBC Connecticut
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 C8a42210

North of the LIE south of the LIE.lol

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:47 pm

sroc4 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Ryan Hanrahan from NBC Connecticut
FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 C8a42210

North of the LIE south of the LIE.lol

Haha yup. He heard your local expertise lol
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Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:05 pm

Steve D Going very warm lol lolFEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 3a3e2010
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Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:06 pm

Let’s see if he’s right lol
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Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:33 pm

Steve D fail as usual lol
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Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:36 pm

BAM!FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 F9c97710
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Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:38 pm

Notice initial mixing worries along immediate coast and then the cold rushes in. 528 thickness line drops south of LI. With precip rates that’s 100% snow
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Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:45 pm

Hi res looking fine
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Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:46 pm

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Post by track17 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:52 pm

Realize when you say immediate coast there is much more to the coast then just Long Island. Can we stop talking about Long Island as the only coast people on this forum live on.

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Post by track17 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:56 pm

Not complaining just gets real confusing for my small mind

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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:58 pm

I like how the NAM, EURO look for this event. While the EURO may be a tad warm, the timing of the precip coming in at the evening into the overnight hours should help keep precip as snow for many. The question remains where the r/s line sets up. I was originally thinking north of NYC, but now I am think it ends up south of there. We'll see if guidance changes tomorrow and if the GFS has any merit, which shows virtually a non-event for our area.

Here is my 1st call

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 February_17th

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Post by docstox12 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:02 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I like how the NAM, EURO look for this event. While the EURO may be a tad warm, the timing of the precip coming in at the evening into the overnight hours should help keep precip as snow for many. The question remains where the r/s line sets up. I was originally thinking north of NYC, but now I am think it ends up south of there. We'll see if guidance changes tomorrow and if the GFS has any merit, which shows virtually a non-event for our area.

Here is my 1st call

FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain? - Page 3 February_17th

Love it, Frank.Puts me right square in the 6 inch zone!!!
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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:04 pm

track17 wrote:Realize when you say immediate coast there is much more to the coast then just Long Island. Can we stop talking about Long Island as the only coast people on this forum live on.

"Coast" is eastern NJ (from Newark on east), NYC, and Long Island. Anyone west or north of there is "N&W"

In my eyes.

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Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:05 pm

HOLY HI RES!!!
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Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:07 pm

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Post by track17 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:09 pm

Thanks Frank it just honestly gets confusing because people have different definitions

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Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:10 pm

track17 wrote:Thanks Frank it just honestly gets confusing because people have different definitions

Sorry about that. Good explanation from frank though.
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