FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:05 pm

The difference between this storm and other mixing events we had this year that i caution is, with this particular storm we will not have 850s and 925s going above freezing. Mid and upper levels stay cold. It's the sfc which may go slightly above, but with heavy precip occurring at night, that may mitigate this issue. Plus we have seen all winter how poorly models handle the low level cold air.
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:11 pm

Bernie likes 4-6" plus for lower hudson valley, 3-5" for NNJ, and 1-3" at most for NYC and LI due to mixing with rain
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by sroc4 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:51 pm

aiannone wrote:Bernie likes 4-6" plus for lower hudson valley, 3-5" for NNJ, and 1-3" at most for NYC and LI due to mixing with rain

reasonable call

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by amugs on Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:09 pm

This is going to be a nine esque typical snowstorm where peeps N&W of I95 will bank. Not saying other areas will not see snow but the likelehood of this being warning level snows are slim for those areas at this time

Hats off to Scott for his call a week out.
What a way to run a torch!!!

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:24 pm

EPAWA First Call. Tricky for LI lol

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by sroc4 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:38 pm

amugs wrote:This is going to be a nine esque typical snowstorm where peeps N&W of I95 will bank. Not saying other areas will not see snow but the likelehood of this being warning level snows are slim for those areas at this time

Hats off to Scott for his call a week out.
What a way to run a torch!!!

Thanks Mugs...Feb 7th here it was :Take a look at the 12z GEFS too. Really starting to look nice. Dare I say it....storm signal for the 16th-17th(+/- a day) time frame? Could it be enough to dig a northern s/w into the pattern more so than what we've seen? Preliminary general idea. That is all.

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:06 pm

Ryan Hanrahan from NBC Connecticut

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by sroc4 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:27 pm

aiannone wrote:Ryan Hanrahan from NBC Connecticut


North of the LIE south of the LIE.lol

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:47 pm

sroc4 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Ryan Hanrahan from NBC Connecticut


North of the LIE south of the LIE.lol

Haha yup. He heard your local expertise lol
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:05 pm

Steve D Going very warm lol lol
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:06 pm

Let’s see if he’s right lol

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:33 pm

Steve D fail as usual lol

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:36 pm

BAM!
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:38 pm

Notice initial mixing worries along immediate coast and then the cold rushes in. 528 thickness line drops south of LI. With precip rates that’s 100% snow
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:45 pm

Hi res looking fine

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:46 pm


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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by track17 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:52 pm

Realize when you say immediate coast there is much more to the coast then just Long Island. Can we stop talking about Long Island as the only coast people on this forum live on.

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by track17 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:56 pm

Not complaining just gets real confusing for my small mind

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:58 pm

I like how the NAM, EURO look for this event. While the EURO may be a tad warm, the timing of the precip coming in at the evening into the overnight hours should help keep precip as snow for many. The question remains where the r/s line sets up. I was originally thinking north of NYC, but now I am think it ends up south of there. We'll see if guidance changes tomorrow and if the GFS has any merit, which shows virtually a non-event for our area.

Here is my 1st call


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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by docstox12 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:02 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I like how the NAM, EURO look for this event. While the EURO may be a tad warm, the timing of the precip coming in at the evening into the overnight hours should help keep precip as snow for many. The question remains where the r/s line sets up. I was originally thinking north of NYC, but now I am think it ends up south of there. We'll see if guidance changes tomorrow and if the GFS has any merit, which shows virtually a non-event for our area.

Here is my 1st call


Love it, Frank.Puts me right square in the 6 inch zone!!!
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:04 pm

track17 wrote:Realize when you say immediate coast there is much more to the coast then just Long Island. Can we stop talking about Long Island as the only coast people on this forum live on.

"Coast" is eastern NJ (from Newark on east), NYC, and Long Island. Anyone west or north of there is "N&W"

In my eyes.

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:05 pm

HOLY HI RES!!!


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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:07 pm


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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by track17 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:09 pm

Thanks Frank it just honestly gets confusing because people have different definitions

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:10 pm

track17 wrote:Thanks Frank it just honestly gets confusing because people have different definitions

Sorry about that. Good explanation from frank though.
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

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