FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by track17 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:10 pm

Aionnone that do you have a version of that map that shows nj. Just wondering because my nj gets cut off

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by track17 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:11 pm

No worries at all man

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:11 pm

track17 wrote:Aionnone that do you have a version of that map that shows nj. Just wondering because my nj gets cut off

Sorry that I got from someone else. I don’t have access to wxbell anymore.
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by track17 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:15 pm

No problem at all just figured I would ask

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:47 pm

GFS still out to lunch

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:58 pm

CMC is now taking back its thoughts lol

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by Math23x7 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:27 pm

The fact that the high is to our east and the fact that there has been a tendency for a NW trend 1-2 days out is why I'm still not sold on this system. IMO, areas north and west cash in on the snow while for NYC south and east, it's a mainly rain event.

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:29 pm

Math23x7 wrote:The fact that the high is to our east and the fact that there has been a tendency for a NW trend 1-2 days out is why I'm still not sold on this system.  IMO, areas north and west cash in on the snow while for NYC south and east, it's a mainly rain event.

While you might be right. The placement of the high is not the end all. Many other factors need to be considered when forecasting the precip type.
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by frank 638 on Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:15 am

Winter storm watch in effect for most of jersey ,NYC,and all of long Island . starting from 7 pm till 7 am sun morning.for 4 to 8 inches of snow expected

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by sroc4 on Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:13 am

Here is my snow map.   I have not had as much time as I normally do to analyze this system.  The previous 2-3 systems have had an almost identical set up with mostly cold rain and little to no accumulation along the coast.  Therefore, Mikey could be correct in that this time may be no different.  Like the prev systems there will in fact be an HP retreating quickly east as the system approaches, and there will be an initial shift easterly and south easterly along the coast as the surface LP initially gets organized as it exits the EC right around the Delmarva; however, There are a few factors that I believe make this system dufferent than the prev ones.  First I believe this system is going to be much more organized/deeper/deepening than the prev ones as indicated by the strength of the northern vort., combined with some decent, but not great upper level jet streak dynamics.  Second the system appears that it will take a track off the DelMarVa and pass just S&E of the BM.  Prev systems tracks have been in much tighter.  This should allow the colder half of the baroclinic zone to remain far enough south.  With a deepening low, as apposed to weak LP simply traversing east, you likely will get the winds quickly shifting back out of the NE as the LP deepens and passes south of the area, and you'll get enhanced lift via marginal upper level dynamics, and baroclinicity; therefore, dynamic cooling in heavier bands will come into play along the coast keeping things colder.  The combined effects of the aforementioned reasons should keep the coast could enough to accumulate snow.  That said the last minute shift NW with the track is def a possibility and would cause my map below to bust along the coast so keep that in mind.  





Last edited by sroc4 on Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:43 am; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
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March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by billg315 on Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:16 am

Mt Holly NWS has issued Winter Storm Watch for Southeast PA and the NW parts of Central and North Jersey for Saturday night for 4-6” of snow. Further south and east mainly rain. Looks to me like the best place to be is the most dangerous place to be for a snow lover: near where the final R/S line sets up, just on the snow side. I think if you go too far N and W of that the precip will be lighter and more short-lived somewhat reducing totals. If you go just S and E if it you’ll be mainly rain. But if you can get close to the rain without getting into the rain the snow could be heavy for a time. A heavy wet snow at that.
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by amugs on Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:39 am

billg315 wrote:Mt Holly NWS has issued Winter Storm Watch for Southeast PA and the NW parts of Central and North Jersey for Saturday night for 4-6” of snow. Further south and east mainly rain. Looks to me like the best place to be is the most dangerous place to be for a snow lover: near where the final R/S line sets up, just on the snow side. I think if you go too far N and W of that the precip will be lighter and more short-lived somewhat reducing totals. If you go just S and E if it you’ll be mainly rain. But if you can get close to the rain without getting into the rain the snow could be heavy for a time. A heavy wet snow at that.

Your typical nina esque storm we lived through the 70's adn 80's.



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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:47 am

Despite no Winter Storm Watch this is Uptons take in Orange County for tomorrow night. I'm not counting on the 7, but hoping for it of course.

Saturday
Increasing clouds, with a high near 37. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Snow, mainly before 3am. Low around 27. South wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Sunday
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 44. West wind 6 to 8 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 27.
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:55 am

Nice thing to wake to this morning wsw frank at 100% and 4 to 7 per nws
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by amugs on Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:40 am

SREFS!!!!!!!!!


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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by sroc4 on Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:40 am

Jimmy check your PM

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
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Dec 30th 2.0"
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:15 am

Sigh. This has bust written all over it. I can hear it now: "It was just too warm the day before. The ground temp. The storm's progressive nature. Temps." Cranky WX and Lee Goldberg aren't buying it, calling for 1-3 NYC metro.

With that said, I'll pray all day for our Winter Storm Warning upgrade and a miracle! Winter ain't over, even after this threat and next week's sultry weather. ;-)
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:23 am

NAM coming in cold but with a bit less QPF
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by Dtone on Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:25 am

SoulSingMG wrote:Sigh. This has bust written all over it. I can hear it now: "It was just too warm the day before. The ground temp. The storm's progressive nature. Temps." Cranky WX and Lee Goldberg aren't buying it, calling for 1-3 NYC metro.

With that said, I'll pray all day for our Winter Storm Warning upgrade and a miracle! Winter ain't over, even after this threat and next week's sultry weather. ;-)

The fact that its at night gives me some hope. 33 - 34 * at night can acclumate as long as it comes down heavy for a while.
If a chilly Sat will be enough to cool down the ground in urban areas is a concern too

Sent from Topic'it App

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:28 am



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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by hyde345 on Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:33 am

SoulSingMG wrote:Sigh. This has bust written all over it. I can hear it now: "It was just too warm the day before. The ground temp. The storm's progressive nature. Temps." Cranky WX and Lee Goldberg aren't buying it, calling for 1-3 NYC metro.

With that said, I'll pray all day for our Winter Storm Warning upgrade and a miracle! Winter ain't over, even after this threat and next week's sultry weather. ;-)

You will do ok in Westchester. It's people around and north of 84 that have to worry. I don't see more than 1-3 for me.
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:33 am

aiannone wrote:


Eeeeeek. Neutral
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:51 am

Hi- Res:

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:24 am

I don't know what they're seeing...

NWS @ 12z:

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:32 am

My prediction:
At the afternoon or morning update package the NWS will convert watches to Advisories for 2-4" with isolated amounts of 5" in the heavier bands
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

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