Long Range Thread 16.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:31 pm

Your going to have serious -AO and -NAO west based block and a 50/50 low that doesn’t budge for about 2 weeks and energy being ejected out of the west. The aforementioned set up forces the energy under the HP to the north and off the coast. The N Atlantic blocking (-NAO and 50/50 Low) slows down the storm and it snows for 24 hrs. Unlike the prev pattern where the HP to the north is able to escape to the east and the system has marginal airmass to work with. This set up the blocking will keep the HP in place and the cold air source is in place for anything forced underneath.

We haven’t had this kind of blocking in years. Obv it’s still a ways away so it’s all contingent on the block setting up but there is nothing leading to believe it won’t at the moment.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:35 pm

Do not be surprised to actually see our first threat of snow to happen before we end Feb. Feb 26-29th. It may start with a cutter that sets up the 50/50 low around the 25th-27th followed by a Miller B type system shortly after

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by track17 on Tue Feb 20, 2018 6:26 pm

Thanks Sroc that's why I asked he had me confused

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:24 am

sroc4 wrote:Do not be surprised to actually see our first threat of snow to happen before we end Feb. Feb 26-29th. It may start with a cutter that sets up the 50/50 low around the 25th-27th followed by a Miller B type system shortly after
sroc theres 28 days this year : ) So if theres going to be anything happening February 29th its going to be in another dimension lol
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Snow88 on Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:56 am

WeatherBob wrote:I do not see a big storm with this pattern developing for the first 2 weeks of March.  Seems like a pattern of random cut- off lows will be the rule.  Unless you get that cut off develope over Virginia and move east or east northeast with a surface low on the coast, yes , the storm will be there.  However, with the developing pattern,  you have better odds at hitting a jackpot on a slot machine than seeing the storm I just mentioned happening.  Just my humble opinion.

Storms will not be able to cut with the block

They will be forced to redevelop
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Snow88 on Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:57 am

sroc4 wrote:Do not be surprised to actually see our first threat of snow to happen before we end Feb. Feb 26-29th. It may start with a cutter that sets up the 50/50 low around the 25th-27th followed by a Miller B type system shortly after

I agree

The end of the month into the 1st week of March holds a lot of promise for a big slow moving storm.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:59 am

Quite the blocking pattern setting up in the long range. I would not be shocked if we saw another snow event occur in March. At the least, we're likely to see below normal temperatures the first 10 days of March. Of course the -NAO wants to develop as we exit Meteorological Winter. This is what happens when a SSWE occurs too late in the season. Our springs start off on the cold side!

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Snow88 on Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:12 am

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 42m42 minutes ago
More

According to our definition of the NAO, models are calling for the all-time strongest -NAO value observed since our archive (beginning in 1980). The record low value since 1980 is from February 2006 (-2.77sigma). We are seeing models call for -3sigma during late February 2018.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by WeatherBob on Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:25 am

Snow88 - well the GFS is showing a lot of cut - off lows after this Atlantic ridge breaks down. The lows might be forced to re- develope but I still feel there will be too much randomness (new word) in the pattern. Just my opinion and we will see what the ultimate pattern looks like at the end of next week.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by WeatherBob on Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:31 pm

One more note on the pattern for early March, if the upper level trough just south of the Greenland block does develope as indicated on the Euro and GFS , any redevelopment of a coastal storm will not bring it up the coast. It’s destiny will be out to see. That’s what I see now. We will have to wait until mid next week to see how this play out. Will the Greenland block be anchored for any length of time? Will the trough south of this block hang ? Those are the key pieces to watch.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Carter bk on Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:37 pm

Where is frank any updates on long range that add more credit to at lease a cooler pattern and maybe snowy

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:29 pm

Carter bk wrote:Where is frank any updates on long range that add more credit to at lease a cooler pattern and maybe snowy
he posted just a bit back on this page scroll up.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by dkodgis on Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:12 am

If I understand all this, with the -NAO then this means the jet stream will dip, the polar vortex will shear south to some degree, it will get colder, and any precipitation coming to town will/may have enough cold to give us the gold? Not that I am appearing on the Weather Channel but I feel like lighting a match, clapping my hands, and stomping my feet in happiness that I may finally be getting this. I reserve the right to continue splitting my infinitives and still ask dumb questions from time to time.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:10 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Quite the blocking pattern setting up in the long range. I would not be shocked if we saw another snow event occur in March. At the least, we're likely to see below normal temperatures the first 10 days of March. Of course the -NAO wants to develop as we exit Meteorological Winter. This is what happens when a SSWE occurs too late in the season. Our springs start off on the cold side!

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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March 20th-22nd 11.8"
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Snow88 on Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:57 am

Anthony Masiello‏

Threat gradually increasing for a coastal storm during the first 4 days of March:
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Snow88 on Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:07 am

Anthony Masiello‏


The front end time of blocks, esp after a very warm pattern, normally favor interior and New England. But this storm later next week comes at the peak of the block's retrograde, not necessarily its start. That's what 1962 did as well, as an extreme example.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:13 am

One thing to keep in mind about the -NAO block we will see in early March: we do not want it too west-based. That would suppress storms to our south. As the -NAO block weakens that will be our period of opportunity to capitalize on a snow event. March 7th-13th will be the time I would pay attention to. I would also not discount March 2nd-6th but that period would likely be a lighter snow event.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:28 am

Looks impressive
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:41 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Looks impressive

I'd say it looks confused more than anything, with impressive potential.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:50 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Looks impressive

I'd say it looks confused more than anything, with impressive potential.

Impressive this far out
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:46 pm

This is a sick run, the LP can't go anywhwre due to the massive blockade in the North Atlantic. Look at what is does. Just for showing if we get an LP to slip unflderneath with a split flow from the PAC and some STJ love this is a sceneries that us not out of the question. Please no wah wah NE gets crushed just showing the potential here. Runs will be inasneasier the next few days as they starts to see the enermoity of the block sething up over head.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:04 pm

amugs wrote:This is a sick run, the LP can't go anywhwre due to the massive blockade in the North Atlantic. Look at what is does. Just for showing if we get an LP to slip unflderneath with a split flow from the PAC and some STJ love this is a sceneries that us not out of the question. Please no wah wah NE gets crushed just showing the potential here. Runs will be inasneasier the next few days as they starts to see the enermoity of the block sething up over head.

Compliments of Dougie fresh

WOW!!!!!!! Blizzard of 1888 type track. Who's snow, who's rain, does it happen at all, OTS, a rain storm for all? as Mugs says it's out but it's a long way off, but again WOW.

Some similarities in path also to the Snowicane of Feb 25-26 2010. 21 inches in NYC from that 35 inches IMBY and all rain in Red Sox Suck. Def worth keeping an eye on.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:12 pm

ok, this is NOT funny! Going to Florida for spring training and it's going to be cool????


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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Math23x7 on Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:08 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:ok, this is NOT funny! Going to Florida for spring training and it's going to be cool????


That's what a super negative AO/NAO couplet will do

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by SnowForest on Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:42 pm

I'm hoping to see some more snow this winter. Not ready for mosquitoes just yet. I'm glad to see that we have a real shot at a storm in March.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

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