Long Range Thread 16.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:15 am


If these projections are correct there is no way escape with out at least one MECS. Count on it

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by aiannone on Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:19 am

CMC Insists

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by aiannone on Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:05 pm


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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by MattyICE on Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:07 pm

I want it as bad as the next guy. But like I said, hard to get on board when it’s the CMC and German alone.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by aiannone on Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:08 pm

12z GFS Ens

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by crippo84 on Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:30 pm

MattyICE wrote:I want it as bad as the next guy. But like I said, hard to get on board when it’s the CMC and German alone.

Germany is currently leading the Winter Olympics gold medal count with Canada not too far behind them in 4th. Maybe...it's a sign. scratch
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by algae888 on Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:26 pm

Euro on board for a snow storm Saturday night into Sunday morning
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:03 pm

algae888 wrote:Euro on board for a snow storm Saturday night into Sunday morning

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by aiannone on Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:16 pm

12z Euro:

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by MattyICE on Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:21 pm

Guess I spoke to soon. Lol. However, we ALL know it’s in the meso/short range this year. Will have to see that hand off in the next day or two.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Grselig on Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:52 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
algae888 wrote:Euro on board for a snow storm Saturday night into Sunday morning

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:55 pm

Some nice runs today. GFS 18z just shifted north because the northers s/w is stronger a tad slower and a tad deeper. Stay cautiously optimistic. Another day or two of positive trends and we will start a new thread. Winter is not over.

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by aiannone on Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:25 pm

ICON staying consistent with its solution over the past couple days as well

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:09 pm

00z GFS caves

We
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by aiannone on Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:11 pm

For shits and giggles lol

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:15 am

Not liking by his threat
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 6:42 am

Have no fear. All storms have shifted nw inside of 48 hours. By Tomorrow night we will all be forecast for rain except extreme nw guys
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:25 am

Model update:

1) GFS:




2) EURO:




3) CMC:





I normally don't like surface maps, esp this far out, but for now we have a snow to sleet to rain scenario ; maybe back to snow for the coastal plain, with N&W holding on longer and possibly the entire time.  I'm not quite ready to make any specific predictions about this system except to say a few things.  

First the pattern isn't great for this to be a big storm, both up stream and down stream, so temper expectations on what to pick up out of this.  That said this is not impossible for some to get a decent 3-6, maybe 4-8" (my ceiling) if things go perfect.  One of the keys to this is just how strong is the northern vort and does it interact with the southern stream at all. Below is the current best case coldest scenario CMC vs the warmer soln of the GFS.  As you can see that by the CMC by 12z Sat the N vort is interacting with the southern energy.  It rides along the boundary  all the way to the coast to form a stronger more organized surface LP(SLP) exiting the coast to our south.  The key here is the interaction with the southern stream.  This allows the SLP to draw in the colder air.







Now look at the GFS.  Compared to the CMC by 12z Sat you can see the northern energy and southern energy have not interacted and is not as far south.  As the energy moves eastit remains separated by a small margin, but just enough such that when we reach the coast the SLP struggles to draw in colder air






In both scenarios we have a cold HP to the north which gives us a fresh injection of cold air ahead of the storm.  However, also in both scenarios, the HP is retreating off the coast because there is no blocking to prevent its escape.  This likely allows the warm air surge ahead of the SLP to occur changing the wind direction from the north to the east and SE.  This is almost identical set up to the past few systems to come our way.  Keep in mind cold air likes to hold tough for longer than is modeled at least on the surface, but probability says that we all start as snow before the coastal plain changes over and areas N&W have the best shot at either not changing over or minimally changing over.  As long as the storm track doesn't come too much farther North, N&W of the city should do ok whereas the coast gets oogatz like it has prev.  However, its also still possible that the storm track ends up a little south of where guidance currently is which helps the coast but limits precip N&W if its not too far south, or passes too far south and misses us all.   All this said we still have a long way to go.  The northern energy does not come onshore for at least 48-72 hrs so....

We Track!   What a Face  In a pattern THAT SUCKS!...FOR NOW.  Long range changes still look good as we end the month and begin March.

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:24 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
algae888 wrote:Euro on board for a snow storm Saturday night into Sunday morning

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:44 am

If we’re talking snow to rain IMBY I’d just rather have it be all rain thank you very much.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by aiannone on Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:50 am

12z NAM has it too if extrapolated

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by algae888 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:36 am

I'm not too concerned about suppression with this system as we have a strong War. We also have the Ao and Nao tanking at this time and a slight rise in the PNA towards neutral. All good signs that this storm will hit us in one way or another. We also will have a fresh supply of arctic air however the high pressure system looks to be unfavorable at the moment but with the Nao tanking it could hold its ground more than what models are showing at the moment
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by aiannone on Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:32 am

12z CMC still a nice hit

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:41 am

The surest sign that there will be significant snow in central and north Jersey and points north is that I will be at the shore in South Jersey this weekend for a polar plunge event.  This almost guarantees there will be a half foot of snow in my backyard this Sunday while I'm not there (and probably that it will melt before I get home), while it rains in South Jersey.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:58 am

billg315 wrote:The surest sign that there will be significant snow in central and north Jersey and points north is that I will be at the shore in South Jersey this weekend for a polar plunge event.  This almost guarantees there will be a half foot of snow in my backyard this Sunday while I'm not there (and probably that it will melt before I get home), while it rains in South Jersey.

and I will be in Mystic CT where I'm sure I will experience similar circumstances.

During the first substantial snow December 9th when we had six inches in the HV and 4.6 in NYC I was in Newport RI where they had an inch of snow washed away by the rain and onshore winds that quickly followed. It is my fate this year and I've accepted it.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

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