Long Range Thread 16.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:41 am

I thought these clown maps were banter this far out? Here we go again. Just preparing for my 3 inches while north Yonkers gets 30. Lol but it's prolly no joke.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:43 am

jmanley32 wrote:I thought these clown maps were banter this far out? Here we go again. Just preparing for my 3 inches while north Yonkers gets 30. Lol but it's prolly no joke.

I hope not for sanity sake.

A man can only handle so much snow deprivation.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by SNOW MAN on Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:46 am

syosnow94 wrote:15:1. Guys. Not this time of year. Half that number is more likely

It all depends on your location. Up here them there mountains we do pretty well. Yesiree. As I spit my tabaccy into the spittoon. LOL !
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:46 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I thought these clown maps were banter this far out? Here we go again. Just preparing for my 3 inches while north Yonkers gets 30. Lol but it's prolly no joke.

I hope not for sanity sake.

A man can only handle so much snow deprivation.
I appreciate your hope for me but at least the last 2 yes I've always done bad. The blizzard last yr I only got 11 where as it was supposed b 24 to 36. This year these nickle and dime events are 10x worse. I'll take 10+ even if people see double that but almost nothing..getting sick of it.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:13 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I thought these clown maps were banter this far out? Here we go again. Just preparing for my 3 inches while north Yonkers gets 30. Lol but it's prolly no joke.

I hope not for sanity sake.

A man can only handle so much snow deprivation.
I appreciate your hope for me but at least the last 2 yes I've always done bad. The blizzard last yr I only got 11 where as it was supposed b 24 to 36. This year these nickle and dime events are 10x worse. I'll take 10+ even if people see double that but almost nothing..getting sick of it.

Stop measuring under trees or on the asphalt. I’m starting to think you are the former zookeeper
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Grselig on Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:19 pm

I love clown maps. Still, fun to watch. We all get shafted and we all get the goods. Juno was a heartbreak. Nemo was successful. Enjoy the ride!!!!
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by rb924119 on Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:19 pm

When I see this event, I see many shades of Christmas 2002. Mixed with shades of April '82..

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 on Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:13 pm

I will not let myself get too excited about this event that is 6 days away. Until tomorrow. Surprised
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:18 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Who ready for the next nor'easter??


Btw. This is no joke. -NAO will return.

Look at the low level arctic air mass due to the N EPO once again. This woudl be incredible if it verifies.


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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:29 pm

20th-21st we will be tracking another snow event, especially for those N&W of NYC.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:34 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:20th-21st we will be tracking another snow event, especially for those N&W of NYC.

Nope. #fakenews. It’s going to be a coastal special
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by mikeypizano on Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:54 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:20th-21st we will be tracking another snow event, especially for those N&W of NYC.

How far N&W... Suspect
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:57 pm

[quote="amugs"]
sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Who ready for the next nor'easter??


Look at the low level arctic air mass due to the N EPO once again. This woudl be incredible if it verifies.

quote]

The map you posted was the 2m dew points Mugs, but temps will be down right cold none the less....BRRRRRRR






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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:04 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Who ready for the next nor'easter??


Look at the low level arctic air mass due to the N EPO once again. This woudl be incredible if it verifies.

quote]

The map you posted was the 2m dew points Mugs, but temps will be down right cold none the less....BRRRRRRR





if that holds I could finally see some snow. That's nuts for late march. But as days go by I see it less and less likely to see snow along coast. Well except long islsnd which might as well b vermont. Lol
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:05 pm

If a storm does materialize next week I have a feeling we won't have to worry about lack of cold air. EURO today was a southern slider. DC/Philly get his hard. Once again, we have to worry about confluence over New England. If it's too strong, like EURO insisted, then the storm will not have room to come north. Unless there is a phase that happens..


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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:10 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:If a storm does materialize next week I have a feeling we won't have to worry about lack of cold air. EURO today was a southern slider. DC/Philly get his hard. Once again, we have to worry about confluence over New England. If it's too strong, like EURO insisted, then the storm will not have room to come north. Unless there is a phase that happens..

but last night's run showed a optimal outcome if we want a big storm do it's way too early to tell right.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:32 pm

Frank I LOVE the fact the euro shows DC to Philly. Lets keep it that way for three more days. Then we can begin the slow inevitable N and W correction and With the cold air modeled we go BOOM!!!! Never want to be in the Bullseye 6 days out
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:35 pm

Joe Bastardi on this potential:

we should see a bowling ball phase and bomb out. Models will sway back and forth, but the pattern should reign supreme. Each one of these storms fell off the modeling for a while, The reason this could be the biggest event of the month is 1) there is plains storm before it that will start a snowcover in the plains and 2) it will cover a larger area if I am right, from the plains to the east coast, I like analogs from the 1975 and 1982 monsters, though its coming 2 weeks before, But both storms had tremendous cold north of them and behind them and I think that is the case here, So yes I am fired up

But watch the depth of the trough off the west coast. And remember, the examples I am showing you, troughs are on the west coast as the troughs are deepest in the east, This is not December, its March and March at its wildest is showing it can be well worth waiting for

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by essexcountypete on Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:53 pm

Upton:
Models then differ in the handling of a cutoff low over the Central Plains, and associated downstream ridging. The CMC is the most aggressive in opening up the cutoff and developing a coastal low which brings precipitation in Tuesday. The GFS is much faster than the other models in opening the cutoff, so has weaker downstream ridging, and hence has a more suppressed low track. The ECMWF is similar to the CMC, but about 12 hours slower (also about 12 hours slower than the 00Z ECMWF). Noting the continuity in theme between the CMC/12z and 00z ECMWF believe the GFS is a southern outlier with this system. Noting a general slowing trend with this system in the guidance, have kept Monday night dry, then increase pops to chance during the day on Tuesday. For now have mainly snow across the interior and a rain/snow mix near the coast. However, would not be surprised if this storm ultimately ends up producing snow over the entire CWA. Still quite a bit of time to sort this storm out, including recognizing the possibility this storm might end up more on Wednesday than on Tuesday.

When I checked at noon WU has me Tues Snow 5-8" and Wed Snow 1-3", now it says Tues Snow <1".
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:47 pm

From the storm Observation thread:

mmanisca wrote:Now it’s time to bring on spring!!

Sorry, not happening anytime soon:




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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Dunnzoo on Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:46 pm

Will.not.be.sucked.in total bust here with this one

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:49 pm

EPS looks very good here


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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:51 pm

This was a 500mb map from the GFS I used last week to illustrate the pattern today's storm was working with:




At the time I mentioned the anomalous +PNA ridge, location of the -NAO ridge, and timing of short waves between the northern and southern jet streams as positives which ultimately was the reason why I favored a coastal storm to happen. While areas from NYC and west did not see much from it, most N&W and east of NYC did see accumulating snow. Not Godzilla amounts, but a sizable event nonetheless for March standards. 

Here is today's 500mb map from the GFS valid for next week. I want to highlight the differences in the upper air pattern:



*Anomalous +PNA? Not quite. 
*-NAO? Yes, but noticeably weaker. 
*Confluence? Yes. Almost the same spot. 
*Strong vorticity at the base of the trough? Yes. 
*Northern stream energy for a potential phase? Maybe. 

The first and last points might be the biggest difference. One reason why today's storm made the turn north was because of the late or partial phase with the northern stream energy, made possible by the anomalous western ridge. It does not appear we have that in our favor this go around, but a split-flow could also achieve the same result as long as timing is right. 

My preference would be to see our storm come together in the mid-section of the country, which most models show, and slow it down enough to allow a northern vort to phase into the main trough. That would almost guarantee the storm to turn north. My only concern is the flow may be too progressive due to the lack of amplification. I'll take my chances of that with a -NAO and hope future runs slow this down a bit. I was able to say with confidence we would see a coastal storm today. I'm unable to do that for this storm as of now, but it's a full week out. We'll see how this looks in a couple of days from now.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by rb924119 on Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:14 pm

Great post, Frank!!! However, I would (respectfully) contend that that we WILL see a PNA spike occur while our storm is traversing the nation. Why? Because our storm will be born out of the eastern Pacific trough. What will happen is our energy will split out from the main trough in response to another Pacific jet retraction and concomitant Rossby wave amplification. As a result, the parent trough will retrograde some further west into the Pacific and begin enhancing our increasing EPO ridge through Alaska. As this splits back, pumps the EPO, and our energy begins heading east in the mean flow, we will see a "bounce back" of our PNA heights in response to the splitting H5 trough, and Pacific amplification. Regardless of a phase, you're going to have a true bowling ball low cutting across the Heartland. The reason I really like this setup is because this low will be working a -NAO/EPO couplet, with a spiking PNA (in my opinion), which will allow the energy in our system to really consolidate rapidly as the trough sharpens and deepens. This is fantastic and why I'm so fired up - bowling ball low working with a coupled -EPO/NAO providing a truly cold air source spells trouble for anywhere north of that low. The PNA spike will only assist the matter. Where I get nervous for the coast, however, and why I'm expecting this to trend further northwest with time, is because we will be lacking a -AO, WPO and a true 50/50 low. We will also be missing favorable tropical forcing as the MJO will be crashing into the null-phase and the SOI has been predominantly positive, though mainly marginally in strength. As we continue to head toward the warm season, warm air will begin having more fight, and combined with the very warm western Atlantic water, I think it will aid in building western Atlantic heights in conjunction with the processes associated with the amplification upstream (and our system) and increase diabetic heat release, as I fully expect this to be a pretty large severe weather producer. Either way, very fun and exciting times ahead!!!!!

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:58 pm

Good post Ray. I can't say I disagree with any of it. You have more confidence than I when it comes to our trough. I want to see in 2 days from now exactly how amplified models are with it. It's possible the bowling ball upper low in the Heartland does not come to fruition. It could stay an open wave. It will depend on what happens upstream

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