Long Range Thread 16.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 on Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:02 pm

What (if anything) do we make of the 18z GFS forming a second coastal low riding the coattails of the first coastal low just 12 hours behind it?
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:17 pm

It's BS

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 on Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:23 pm

Agreed. Doesn’t make any sense and not sure if I’ve ever seen that actually happen. Wondering if it’s picking up on something else of significance and just spitting it out with the wrong solution or if it’s just SNAFU for the gfs.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Radz on Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:36 pm

billg315 wrote:Agreed. Doesn’t make any sense and not sure if I’ve ever seen that actually happen. Wondering if it’s picking up on something else of significance and just spitting it out with the wrong solution or if it’s just SNAFU for the gfs.
Don't the other globals also show a piece of energy behind the initial low as well? Maybe not to the extent of the GFS...
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:03 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:It's BS
big storm? Lol
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by WeatherBob on Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:28 pm

I know it’s kind of early but, where is the cold air for the storm? My gut feeling is that we will lack sufficient cold air in the NY Metro area.  I will wait until Saturday to confirm my suspicions.

Let me rephrase that, I see the cold air but will it get here and stay . Tough with that WNW flow trying to keep the cold air in . Wait and see.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by essexcountypete on Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:48 pm

RJB8525 wrote:Mt Holly lol

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A coastal storm may affect the area Tuesday and Tuesday night,
however the details and therefore any impacts are uncertain at this
time.

That's the same thing they've had for a few days now.

Meanwhile, Upton chats us up...

Continue to monitor a coastal low that is progged to impact the area from late Monday night into the middle of next week. Models continue to struggle in handling a cutoff low currently over the western Gulf of Alaska. They differ in how quickly it comes inland, and how quickly and how intact it ends up emerging from the Central Rockies. Then they differ on how it interacts with the existing closed low over the Canadian Maritimes (they also differ on how the handle this). The models have in general shifted northward with their coastal low track, with the GFS the farthest N (near/over Long Island) and the CMC and ECMWF still keeping the low south of Long Island, but to the S/E vice N/W of the 40N/70W benchmark respectively. Believe the GFS remains an outlier in how it is handling the system (in part in its evolution of current closed low over Canadian Maritimes and that it appears to weaken/shear the western cutoff more so than other solutions). So for now have used a ECMWF/CMC blend for the forecast for Monday night-Wednesday.

In terms of sensible weather, expect mainly snow to develop from SW to NE late Monday night. For now calling for the snow to a wintry mix over the N 1/2 of the CWA Tuesday-Wednesday and snow and rain over the S 1/2 of the CWA. Do expect precipitation to taper off on Wednesday as the storm slowly exits to the NE. There is still quite a bit uncertainty over the exact strength and track of this storm and hence its ultimate impacts to the CWA. It does appear that there could be a period of strong gusty winds as the storm passes to the S/SE Tuesday and Tuesday night. This could result in some coastal issues, refer to the tides and coastal flooding section of the AFD for further information.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Math23x7 on Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:51 pm

"My gut feeling is that we will lack sufficient cold air in the NY Metro area"

I agree

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by docstox12 on Thu Mar 15, 2018 5:22 am

NWS now tooting the all snow horn up here in the Hudson Valley.Snow from Monday night to Wednesday night.Long disco on the matter.Even Lee Goldberg was on board last night after waffling Tuesday night saying it was moving S and E on his interpretation and we would have a light snow event.Days away so anything can happen, but definitely something is flashing.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Mar 15, 2018 6:23 am

Euro and cmc were nice hits for the coast everbatim.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:05 am

docstox12 wrote:NWS now tooting the all snow horn up here in the Hudson Valley.Snow from Monday night to Wednesday night.Long disco on the matter.Even Lee Goldberg was on board last night after waffling Tuesday night saying it was moving S and E on his interpretation and we would have a light snow event.Days away so anything can happen, but definitely something is flashing.
Just like the last 2 storms.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:27 am

Doc bring some that cold down here please.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by SNOW MAN on Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:49 am

docstox12 wrote:NWS now tooting the all snow horn up here in the Hudson Valley.Snow from Monday night to Wednesday night.Long disco on the matter.Even Lee Goldberg was on board last night after waffling Tuesday night saying it was moving S and E on his interpretation and we would have a light snow event.Days away so anything can happen, but definitely something is flashing.

Good morning Doc. The thing that makes me nervous is when the media starts agreeing that there's going to be a storm. That could be the KOD for our event.  Sad
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:03 am

Some overnight model runs:

EPS



EURO



CMC



UKIE



Other models besides GFS showing the 2-low idea. I still am not buying it but we will see.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by dkodgis on Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:07 am

I can go for more snow. Will the temps be low enough during the day? Could this be a mix situation for part of the day on Tues? And yes, it is still far away. I know that. I am wishing upon a star.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:23 am

WeatherBob wrote:I know it’s kind of early but, where is the cold air for the storm? My gut feeling is that we will lack sufficient cold air in the NY Metro area.  I will wait until Saturday to confirm my suspicions.

Let me rephrase that, I see the cold air but will it get here and stay .  Tough with that WNW flow trying to keep the cold air in . Wait and see.

On all global models you have 3 key features that will combine to provide the cold air source, the details; however, are still variable.  Euro, GFS, CMC, and Ukie early next week you see our LP headed towards the Ohio river valley where it runs into:

1) A strong HP to the north discharged directly from Northern Canada compliments of the upper level Pacific pattern and N Atlantic Pattern which triggers a transfer of energy somewhere off the EC

2) Our last nor'easter from the 12th-13th is bottled up somewhere off the EC of Canada/S Greenland acting somehwat as our 50/50 low (although not quite on 50n/50W) helping our cause because...

3) There is still a -NAO, albeit breaking down and backing off, and more like an east based look in the N Atlantic.  

The positioning of the HP to the north and the low to the NE provides a nice frigid source region from which a transferring and deepening low pressure system off the EC to tap into.  The set up is def there for a cold air source, but its the details in the transfer timing, position, and how fast we deepen/phase etc that will determine the IMBY details here.  Despite Mikey's overwhelmingly pessimistic analysis on the situation, the coast is 100% in the game with this set up for accumulation at this stage of tracking.  In his back yard will be tough because again we do have climatology against us here if the timing of the precip is mid day, but as far as late March storms go this is a pretty decent set up for the coast if the Track is right.  Of course climatology will always favor interior to do better this time of year.  The details cont to be fuzzy but some of them, for instance the idea of a Miller B set up, is starting to come into focus.  The details of said set up wont come into true focus until the weekend at the earliest; even then as we have seen with 3 straight NorEasters the minute details come to light under 24-48hrs.  

Both optimistic, and pessimistic sides of the camp really need to avoid any such definitive statements about the details of this storm right now as we all should know better.  





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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:39 am

I distinctly remember a few two low scenarios. One time it was raining. The date was December 10th or so. The year escapes me but it was in the mid 90’s. I was living in Bellerose. I went to a local “establishment” came out four hours later to 8” of snow. The first low exited pulled in slightly cooler air and a secondary formed off the Delmarva and buried us fast and furious.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by dkodgis on Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:53 am

Scott, thank you for the scoop on temps. I know there are vertical and horizontal issues with temperatures this time of year and I have to update my way of approaching this. Right now I look at the iPhone and see highs and lows and add 2+2=5. I understand the facts and your further interpretation. It is just that my line of thinking is simplistic, without access to proprietary weather models and without any specific experience than looking at the thermometer on the deck. The more I ask, the more I am starting to get things. I like getting more knowledgeable about weather. It is a hobby that improves my mental health, just like watching the birds at the feeder or the butterflies on the butterfly bush. Great stuff.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by WeatherBob on Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:02 am

Scott, you are very detailed as usual. I was talking about  a WNW flow aloft with weak low level cold air advection . It could turn out that way in the end but way to early to say.  I will keep my mouth shut and wait till the weekend runs to see what our fearless models indicate.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:21 am

WeatherBob wrote:Scott, you are very detailed as usual. I was talking about  a WNW flow aloft with weak low level cold air advection . It could turn out that way in the end but way to early to say.  I will keep my mouth shut and wait till the weekend runs to see what our fearless models indicate.

I hear what you’re saying Bob. However with the current lead time for the storm I prefer not to look at those types of details. For now it’s still big picture, pattern recognition, which I think is favorable for cyclogenesis off our coast.  This time of year for the coast, we usually have to rely on the dynamics of a storm to generate the cold as even a cold air mass is moderated heavily due to climatology. Modeling never sees those details with  this type of lead time.  Where the heaviest precept falls, what type of storm track, upper level jet dynamics, what time of day does the heaviest precept fall, etc.  none of these things can be pointed out in any type of detail at this stage. So again my post, even though it was quoting you specifically, was not directed at you per se. I simply wanted to point out the fact that the big picture can certainly support a) cyclogenesis off the east coast, and b) cold air is available for this storm if it’s dynamic enough.

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WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
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Dec 30th 2.0"
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:47 am

Great detailed post as usual Scott.
Remember the N EPO will send the HP through the Upper Midwest & North Country and the low level cold air will press (Banana High look here) on the EPS below). The position of that HP is going to be a factor of course in the evolution if this storm. OP runs will NOT see this but ENS will do a better job of seeing such. Again as with potent storms details within the 12- 48 time frame are when we see what is going to things shape up.

I love this look of the EURO EPS location of he Nor'easter. This has a classic look to it IMO. MANY major snowstorm analogs have had this look. Lets see if we can get this bad boy to bring us some luv!
PB map


Earthlight indicy maps here thx
Snowfall - this is impressive at this stage - stickage on the furnace is a different story - burbs and ruburbs yes


Half filled or Half Empty tis the question??

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:49 am


Joe Cioffi...about 10 min in...starts talking about the next threat.
https://www.nycweathernow.com/noreaster-number-four-possibility-enters-picture/
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Math23x7 on Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:56 am

amugs wrote:Great detailed post as usual Scott.
Remember the N EPO will send the HP through the Upper Midwest & North Country and the low level cold air will press (Banana High look here) on the EPS below). The position of that HP is going to be a factor of course in the evolution if this storm. OP runs will NOT see this but ENS will do a better job of seeing such. Again as with potent storms details within the 12- 48 time frame are when we see what is going to things shape up.

I love this look of the EURO EPS location of he Nor'easter. This has a classic look to it IMO. MANY major snowstorm analogs have had this look. Lets see if we can get this bad boy to bring us some luv!
PB map


Earthlight indicy maps here thx
Snowfall - this is impressive at this stage - stickage on the furnace is a different story - burbs and ruburbs yes


Half filled or Half Empty tis the question??

Remember this is based on 10:1 ratio. Earlier this week, CPK had 0.28" qpf in the form of snow, which by 10:1 ratio would be 2.8" of snow but it ended up with a trace since it was above freezing. Last week, CPK had 1.39" qpf in the form of snow which by 10:1 ratio would be 13.9" of snow but it ended up with 3.2" since it was, you guessed it, above freezing.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 15, 2018 10:22 am

Math23x7 wrote:
amugs wrote:Great detailed post as usual Scott.
Remember the N EPO will send the HP through the Upper Midwest & North Country and the low level cold air will press (Banana High look here) on the EPS below). The position of that HP is going to be a factor of course in the evolution if this storm. OP runs will NOT see this but ENS will do a better job of seeing such. Again as with potent storms details within the 12- 48 time frame are when we see what is going to things shape up.

I love this look of the EURO EPS location of he Nor'easter. This has a classic look to it IMO. MANY major snowstorm analogs have had this look. Lets see if we can get this bad boy to bring us some luv!
PB map


Earthlight indicy maps here thx
Snowfall - this is impressive at this stage - stickage on the furnace is a different story - burbs and ruburbs yes


Half filled or Half Empty tis the question??

Remember this is based on 10:1 ratio.  Earlier this week, CPK had 0.28" qpf in the form of snow, which by 10:1 ratio would be 2.8" of snow but it ended up with a trace since it was above freezing.  Last week, CPK had 1.39" qpf in the form of snow which by 10:1 ratio would be 13.9" of snow but it ended up with 3.2" since it was, you guessed it, above freezing.

Mike yes you are correct. The fact that it sees this much snowfall in this range is WOW worthy for this time of year. Stickage is a different story of course and as I said the heat engine of NYC needs 30* and lower for snow to stick and even then DeBlasio will turn up the pressure of the underground steam pipes (increase pressure = increase temperature) and it won't stick. NYC is a mini microclimate, face it. Climo preferes N and W of the city for this time in March. Cp and Doc and the rest of those in the HV , NWNJ are cashing in and should be even more.
Look at this map for March so far = epic for some (not KYNC of course)

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Mar 15, 2018 10:28 am

It'll stick out here on northern LI not even a concern of mine. Lower ratios but still...
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