Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[Guest]

When I said south trend, I was referring to this part of a post you made earlier: Pacific short wave that ejects is coniuously being progged to eject further and further south. I took "continuously progged" to mean trend. I apologize if I misunderstood.

Makes sense Aresian. I hear you

[rb924119]

When I said south trend, I was referring to this part of a post you made earlier: Pacific short wave that ejects is coniuously being progged to eject further and further south. I took "continuously progged" to mean trend. I apologize if I misunderstood.

Oo oo oooo!!! No, you're right, that was entirely my misunderstanding. I thought you were referencing the track of the snow and surface feature. Ok, so the Pacific shortwave ejecting further south is a good thing for a few reasons. First, it will mean more energy will eject with it instead of being held back in the parent trough that backs further off the West Coast as our Pacific shortwave begins heading east. Secondly and consequently, this will mean a much slower, and more amplified "bowling ball" solution, which means our system will have a much larger "punch" with it. Third, with a further south track, it allows that much more Gulf moisture to get involved (the further south it is, the closer to the moisture source it is and can more easily draw it northward. Fourth, with all of this, it gives us a true shot at phase with northern stream energy diving down from Canada to really take our storm to the next level, but also allow it to largely amplify and raise heights out ahead of it so it can "make the turn" northeast and head in our direction rather than just slide harmlessly to our south. However, because it gets further south initially and in conjunction with the blocking, it mitigates the risk of having heights rise too much such that too much warm air gets involved and we all go to rain. With this type of evolution, if you wan your HECS, that's the perfect evolution. So I think we are looking VERY GOOD right now, region-wide, as my personal thoughts on the outcome are only those; thoughts. Not certainty (so don't fret yet coasties lol).

As a additional point: MY GOD THE UKMET IS AMAZING!!!! MATCHES MY THOUGHTS TO A "T" AND WOW H5 LOOKS INSANE!!!!! H5 WOULD LIKELY CLOSE OFF OVER THE DELMARVA OR VERY NEAR, WITH A PHASE OF BOTH STREAMS!!!!

[lglickman1]

How many times have you seen models lock into a final outcome this far out?

[WeatherBob]

RB, you know it, I know it and the rest of the board knows it, Delmarva, Delmarva, Delmarva! We need that to be the magnet for the H5 to cut off!!!

[rb924119]

How many times have you seen models lock into a final outcome this far out?

Maybe twice? Lmao idk exactly, but it is EXCEEDINGLY RARE. We aren't close to being locked into a final outcome, but I would strongly argue that we are locked into an IDEA that fits the pattern. That's all we need right now. Details need time to be worked out, but again, I really like where we sit overall.

[Guest]

What happens to the storm if H5 closes off earlier than expected? Does that pull the storm north too soon and create temperature problems?

[Frank_Wx]

There is a plethora of upper level vorticity the models are trying to resolve. This is why we're seeing large spreads in model runs. The GEFS, shown below, are very amplified for a mean. This leads me to believe no matter what happens a lot of QPF is going to come with this storm. There is a lot of "juice" with this one. Unfortunately, a storm that is too strong will bring milder air along with it. So we actually prefer the weaker model solutions if you are looking to stay all snow. Obviously those N&W of NYC are in a very good spot right now. No matter if the storm is strong or weak I expect you will see plenty of snow out of this.



We'll see what happens.

[Frank_Wx]

What happens to the storm if H5 closes off earlier than expected? Does that pull the storm north too soon and create temperature problems?

Most likely the primary will track west and a secondary will try to form. But if the confluence/blocking is strong enough, the primary will not cut and the storm will basically track west to east across the country. Exactly at which latitude is unknown.

[Frank_Wx]

Anybody got a GFS clown map? Ought to be a hoot!

[Frank_Wx]

EURO is running now but look how drastically different it was from last run valid next Tuesday morning. On the last run the primary cut into Ohio. This run it stayed south because of better blocking.

[Frank_Wx]

EURO seems to miss us south. Not enough phasing.

[Frank_Wx]

Exactly where we want it this far out if you ask me...

I rather see the southern slider solutions than amp'd up primaries cutting north

[Snow88]

DC gets a good amount of snow on the 12z Euro

[billg315]

I agree with Frank in terms of some models having it skip by to our south at this point. We actually DO want this somewhat south, so if everything was too far north and west at this stage I'd be more concerned. That would be a guarantee of rain. At least to our south we have a fighting chance for snow if it gets close enough. And that was a big jump south for the Euro so, maybe it corrects ever so slightly back north in the next few runs.

[SoulSingMG]

My God, I step away for a few hours and return to see Rb going off in ALL CAPS! ;-)

This storm won’t be “figured out” by models until Sunday PM at the earliest I think. Complex pattern will produce some wild runs with huge windshield wiper spreads. I’m excited to track a 4TH storm this month. March madness!

[amugs]

OP shmopy - ENS are sweet here in this time frame.
Is it a massive overrunning event ? Or is it a Miller A? or is is an overrunning with a Secondary LP forming off the VA/Delmarva coast? or is it one massive elongated bowling ball LP?

JB using March 2-4th 1960 as an analog for the set up and 1982 April storms as well. Doesn't mean the same prolific snows BUT the cold that follows will be interesting.

EPS - Sweet spot

[amugs]

ENS showing 2 LP that would be insane if it happens.

[amugs]

GFS 12Z is sick - bowling ball

[docstox12]

OP shmopy - ENS are sweet here in this time frame.
Is it  a massive overrunning event ? Or is it a Miller A? or is is an overrunning with a Secondary LP forming off the VA/Delmarva coast? or is it one massive elongated bowling ball LP?

JB using March 2-4th 1960  as an analog for the set up and 1982 April storms as well. Doesn't mean the same prolific snows BUT the cold that follows will be interesting.

EPS - Sweet spot

Mugsy, March 2-4 1960 gave us 18 inches in Fort Lee NJ.April 1982 13 inches in Mahwah.I observed both of those storms.Whatever happens with this storm, it's going to give the board a lot of fun tracking it and seeing it develop.

[amugs]

From a Met Student at PSU
brooklynwx99 is his call name: kid is mini genius IMO

Due to the hemispheric forcing that has been discussed over the last week or so, I am very confident that we will see a major coastal storm on the EC. The 50/50 LP placement providing confluence along with the -NAO provides a favorable upper level flow over the NE. The huge amount of PVA moving into the trough provides upper level divergence and strong SLP. The -EPO driven HP over Quebec is a feature that provides a higher pressure and temperature gradient, which is favorable for frontogenesis over the NE. This may very well be an event which impacts the entire NE is affected, including the Mid-Atlantic and New England.



Here is a picture for clarification:

[jmanley32]

Just read for the day since 730 am so here in NYC area don't get any hopes up I guess. Though verbatim the 12z gfs was 10 to 12 which after these 3 crap feasts I'd take. Of course I want more but it's March.

[amugs]

Holy Sikes GEFS jeans a long duration 2 LP one two overrun with a bazinga in there

[amugs]

MEAN pecip is over 1" , that is a very high ceiling with this storm when you get a mean pumping out that kind of moisture.
A hybrid storm on the GEFS with an overrunning then a transfer to a coastal bomb that crawls the coast.
Vernbatim the shores would get damaged .

ENS run not an OP here peeps.

[nutleyblizzard]

MEAN pecip is over 1" , that is a very high ceiling with this storm when you get a mean pumping out that kind of moisture.
A hybrid storm on the GEFS with an overrunning then a transfer to a coastal bomb that crawls the coast.
Vernbatim the shores would get damaged .

ENS run not an OP here peeps.

Wow. With the slow moving nature of this event along with a pressing high to the north, I can only imagine what would happen if this monster takes the traditional BM track. They would be measuring snow in feet from DC to B-oston.

[Taffy]

There is a plethora of upper level vorticity the models are trying to resolve. This is why we're seeing large spreads in model runs. The GEFS, shown below, are very amplified for a mean. This leads me to believe no matter what happens a lot of QPF is going to come with this storm. There is a lot of "juice" with this one. Unfortunately, a storm that is too strong will bring milder air along with it. So we actually prefer the weaker model solutions if you are looking to stay all snow. Obviously those N&W of NYC are in a very good spot right now. No matter if the storm is strong or weak I expect you will see plenty of snow out of this.



We'll see what happens.

Thanks Frank, this was an excellent breakdown and explanation for neophytes like me.

[jmanley32]

Ensemble mean snowfall map is barely any snow that 1.0 qpf that hugs the coast is almost all rain verbatim.

[jmanley32]

MEAN pecip is over 1" , that is a very high ceiling with this storm when you get a mean pumping out that kind of moisture.
A hybrid storm on the GEFS with an overrunning then a transfer to a coastal bomb that crawls the coast.
Vernbatim the shores would get damaged .

ENS run not an OP here peeps.

Wow. With the slow moving nature of this event along with a pressing high to the north, I can only imagine what would happen if this monster takes the traditional BM track. They would be measuring snow in feet from DC to B-oston.

I looked on the wx bell maps, verbatim none of the ensembles are that impressive, yet anyways, and the mean translates to mainly rain per their maps.

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