Long Range Thread 16.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 26, 2018 1:32 pm

GFS sniffing something out around April 7? Plenty of Cold air aloft, BN temps at surface as a system scoots through to our south. Maybe something to keep an eye on.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 26, 2018 1:48 pm

billg315 wrote:GFS sniffing something out around April 7? Plenty of Cold air aloft, BN temps at surface as a system scoots through to our south. Maybe something to keep an eye on.

It sure is.

Here is today's 12z GEFS valid for April 6th.



A couple of things to note

1. -NAO block (ridge over Greenland) still in place

2. -WPO in place (ridge in the northern PAC) is connecting with the -NAO ridge to keep the AO also negative

The PV is over central Canada. If we can get this PV further S&E, then I think that would give our area with sufficient cold air and prevent our storm from cutting west. Also, let's watch the PNA region. If the ridge pops that will further help usher cold air into our area. Verbatim, this pattern is not "extreme" enough to support a widespread snowstorm but it is close.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Math23x7 on Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:41 pm

The 8-14 day has the analog from around Easter 1970 that JB has pointed out.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Mar 26, 2018 5:07 pm

I'll check in on the 5th as we know this yr nothing has really shown till 48 hrs or less.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Mon Mar 26, 2018 9:02 pm

12Z EPS reinforce's 12Z GEFS


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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:24 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I'll check in on the 5th as we know this yr nothing has really shown till 48 hrs or less.

Don’t sleep on the 1st-4th

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Mar 27, 2018 2:14 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I'll check in on the 5th as we know this yr nothing has really shown till 48 hrs or less.

Don’t sleep on the 1st-4th


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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Mar 27, 2018 5:11 am

April looks like its going to be cold!
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:41 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I'll check in on the 5th as we know this yr nothing has really shown till 48 hrs or less.

Don’t sleep on the 1st-4th
oh I'll be sleeping spring break lol. Find I hard to buy it will snow anywhere near the coast unless it's a absolute bomb and makes it's own cold. Go b 62 and 50s through weekend.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:47 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:43 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:April looks like its going to be cold!
ya and honestly I'm not too happy bout it as much as I like snow now we seem to be pushing winter to summer no such thing as spring anymore.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:49 am

SoulSingMG wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I'll check in on the 5th as we know this yr nothing has really shown till 48 hrs or less.

Don’t sleep on the 1st-4th


to be bitter by a giant snake? Isn't that image from that part?
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:32 pm

The 12Z CMC has quite the eye candy for early next week.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:03 pm

Madonna it's is a snowy look PV in SE CAN and a SW cutting underneath the block again. Huge WPO with a bridge to the NAO block and PNA ridge.


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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by SNOW MAN on Tue Mar 27, 2018 6:10 pm

Just watched the Mets/Professors at Penn State do their snow risk segment. They were talking about how it would turn colder at the beginning of April and that around the 5th of the month, the Canadian, American and the European models are showing a significant snow event could possibly happen. Hopefully everything will come together to give us a nice snow storm.
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Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Math23x7 on Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:14 am

The 0Z ECMWF last night: the block just west of Greenland, the 50/50 low, and the ridging out west. Imagine having this setup in January...




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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:55 pm

12Z  EURO says HELLLLLOOOOO!! next week.
From earthlight


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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Thu Mar 29, 2018 7:08 am

Pattern looking to become zonal. While I suppose I cannot 100% rule out one more, I’m afraid....


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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 on Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:28 am

I'm still not ruling out the possibility for a quick, last hit of snow around April 6-7. May not be a big coastal storm, but I think around that timeframe there could be one last accumulating snow (probably one of those 1-3" type events and most likely if it arrives at night). Then, onto barbecues and soon thereafter, beach trips. To everything there is a season . . . turn, turn, turn.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 29, 2018 12:39 pm

With the MJO going into these phases this pattern is going to be interesting iMO



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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:56 pm

Gefs have some roudzilla hits ugh sorry guys really?
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Math23x7 on Fri Mar 30, 2018 2:38 am

The 0Z ECMWF has a decent snow event for April on Monday morning.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by aiannone on Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:43 am

Well then lol

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Mar 30, 2018 9:08 am

6z GFS


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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Snow88 on Fri Mar 30, 2018 9:29 am

German, Euro, GFS,GEFS,RGEM, Euro Mean and Ukie are all trending north with the Monday system from earlier in the week. Euro has another snow event with below freezing temps later next week.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 on Fri Mar 30, 2018 9:36 am

Monday and Friday night are still two days to watch I think. This may be our last go around for the year so a little excitement never hurts.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

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