Long Range Thread 16.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:33 am

From Dougie Fresh Pro Met
Showing the PAC wave break that rejuvenates the EPO to go Negative and help with our cold air source models will lag in this as always for temps retraction


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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Quietace on Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:29 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:If you wanna see funny look at the 6z GFS around March 4th. U.S. gotta step up our game and improve this model.
No matter what guidance package you use, verification that far ahead is no better then climo. Pattern recognition and statistical forecasting will do much better.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Quietace on Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:31 am

Anyway, I think the up-coming pattern will serve to be a reward for the anguish some have endured through the latter part of the winter.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by docstox12 on Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:32 am

billg315 wrote:All signs point to some good action in early March, and it just makes sense to me not just from the data which all looks good right now, but just from experience as well. It ain’t going to stay in the 50s right into April. Things have to shift colder sometime in early March.
This warmth has had its run. Time for winter to come back and have its fun.

From my many years of observing winter around these parts, when you get a big warm up in the 60's, soon after you get the goods with a big snowstorm.Last February I saw leaves out on the trees.A few weeks later, 20 inches of snow.A mini 1888 redux where people had been sunning themselves in Central park a few days before the blizzard.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:15 pm

docstox12 wrote:
billg315 wrote:All signs point to some good action in early March, and it just makes sense to me not just from the data which all looks good right now, but just from experience as well. It ain’t going to stay in the 50s right into April. Things have to shift colder sometime in early March.
This warmth has had its run. Time for winter to come back and have its fun.

From my many years of observing winter around these parts, when you get a big warm up in the 60's, soon after you get the goods with a big snowstorm.Last February I saw leaves out on the trees.A few weeks later, 20 inches of snow.A mini 1888 redux where people had been sunning themselves in Central park a few days before the blizzard.

You remember that one ...........1888 - I didn't think people showed skin back then LOL!

How low can you go???



Jet Retraction part Duece








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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by MattyICE on Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:02 pm

I know it’s 18z and I know it’s fantasy-land...but the end of the GFS really helps show a) how the models are starting to catch on to these changes, and b) what a pattern like this is potentially capable of.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:06 pm

MattyICE wrote:I know it’s 18z and I know it’s fantasy-land...but the end of the GFS really helps show a) how the models are starting to catch on to these changes, and b) what a pattern like this is potentially capable of.

Made me look! geek

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by algae888 on Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:01 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
MattyICE wrote:I know it’s 18z and I know it’s fantasy-land...but the end of the GFS really helps show a) how the models are starting to catch on to these changes, and b) what a pattern like this is potentially capable of.

Made me look! geek
Me too! It took 84 hours for the storm to go from northern Mississippi into the Gulf of Maine. This is what I was saying yesterday. there will be no 6-hour quick hitter with this pattern coming up
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:33 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Yeah bad timing for me to. I think we see a pattern change in March too but the 2nd week is bad for a lot of people. I'm scheduled to drive to FL to see parents so really hope the weather cooperates.

You and Janet are starting to sound like Jman now with the worry about snow and travel
it was never a concern if the actual driving. It's the traffic and other ppl on 95. It's usually a crappy trip to my parents in CT on a good day. Flying I can understand no one wants be stranded in airport.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:38 pm

From Ventrice


[justify][/justify
Look at that Greenland block and the massive bridge overy the Arctic to induce a negative epo. SW will eject out of the SW with a stj flow from the looks. This sets up then there will be a LOT if sleepless nights my fellow weenies.


Last edited by amugs on Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:41 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:38 pm

algae888 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:
MattyICE wrote:I know it’s 18z and I know it’s fantasy-land...but the end of the GFS really helps show a) how the models are starting to catch on to these changes, and b) what a pattern like this is potentially capable of.

Made me look! geek
Me too! It took 84 hours for the storm to go from northern Mississippi into the Gulf of Maine. This is what I was saying yesterday.  there will be no 6-hour quick hitter with this pattern coming up
so we will have blocking in place? I start a new job at a school on the 26th wouldn't that be the bee's knees if I got a day off only a few days in lol.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by RJB8525 on Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:39 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
algae888 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:
MattyICE wrote:I know it’s 18z and I know it’s fantasy-land...but the end of the GFS really helps show a) how the models are starting to catch on to these changes, and b) what a pattern like this is potentially capable of.

Made me look! geek
Me too! It took 84 hours for the storm to go from northern Mississippi into the Gulf of Maine. This is what I was saying yesterday.  there will be no 6-hour quick hitter with this pattern coming up
so we will have blocking in place? I start a new job at a school on the 26th wouldn't that be the bee's knees if I got a day off only a few days in lol.

congrats jman cheers cheers
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:43 pm

RJB8525 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
algae888 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:
MattyICE wrote:I know it’s 18z and I know it’s fantasy-land...but the end of the GFS really helps show a) how the models are starting to catch on to these changes, and b) what a pattern like this is potentially capable of.

Made me look! geek
Me too! It took 84 hours for the storm to go from northern Mississippi into the Gulf of Maine. This is what I was saying yesterday.  there will be no 6-hour quick hitter with this pattern coming up
so we will have blocking in place? I start a new job at a school on the 26th wouldn't that be the bee's knees if I got a day off only a few days in lol.

congrats jman cheers cheers
thanks! it's not a public school it's a private early intervention preschool that uses scientific evidence based techniques utilizing graphings each day. Many of the kids are autistic as this is becoming a proven method of early learning for those with sutism spectrum disorder. and has somewhat of a diff schedule than Yonkers public. They have a week off in April. And have a half summer program. I'm curious how they handle snow days. If they are made up by removing days from vacations or if it's built in.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:45 pm

Analog storm fir the 3-4 to 3-12 time frame are just drool worthy
1958, 2003, 1962 HOORRAAHHH!




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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:47 pm

KU anyone???



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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by track17 on Mon Feb 19, 2018 5:07 pm

Jman good for you man congrats

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:42 am

Jman congrats!!!

More from Doug Fresh to enjoy over your morning Cup o Joe peeps:

I'm sick of the claims that the Pacific is "bad" and that the NAO "can't do it on its own", or whatever bad information gets spread on the interwebs. The -PNA trough retracting, and undercutting an increasingly -EPO pattern -- yielding a split flow and cold air drainage in NW Canada is exactly the type of Pacific pattern I'd want to coincide with this massive west-based -NAO for KU purposes. Without the -NAO, then this Pacific pattern would be bad, but with the -NAO, not only does the Pacific become "not a hindrance", but I actually think it becomes quite a good cooperator!

Thumbs up savior party bananadude


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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by SENJsnowman on Tue Feb 20, 2018 9:00 am

amugs wrote:Jman congrats!!!

More from Doug Fresh to enjoy over your morning Cup o Joe peeps:

I'm sick of the claims that the Pacific is "bad" and that the NAO "can't do it on its own", or whatever bad information gets spread on the interwebs. The -PNA trough retracting, and undercutting an increasingly -EPO pattern -- yielding a split flow and cold air drainage in NW Canada is exactly the type of Pacific pattern I'd want to coincide with this massive west-based -NAO for KU purposes. Without the -NAO, then this Pacific pattern would be bad, but with the -NAO, not only does the Pacific become "not a hindrance", but I actually think it becomes quite a good cooperator!

Thumbs up savior party bananadude


As a matter of fact, I had the Joe in my hands as I read that line! LOL!

Thanks a ton once again Mugs, and SROC and Frank and RB and the various Al's, etc...so much great info on a regular basis from the whole long range crew. And the regular contributions from the 'ranter and raver' crew is also very helpful in understanding the info on a plain English level. Hopefully all of this comes together to give us all a nice wintry present or two in the final push here.

What is the KU and how does it help produce snow storms?

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Feb 20, 2018 1:55 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
amugs wrote:Jman congrats!!!

More from Doug Fresh to enjoy over your morning Cup o Joe peeps:

I'm sick of the claims that the Pacific is "bad" and that the NAO "can't do it on its own", or whatever bad information gets spread on the interwebs. The -PNA trough retracting, and undercutting an increasingly -EPO pattern -- yielding a split flow and cold air drainage in NW Canada is exactly the type of Pacific pattern I'd want to coincide with this massive west-based -NAO for KU purposes. Without the -NAO, then this Pacific pattern would be bad, but with the -NAO, not only does the Pacific become "not a hindrance", but I actually think it becomes quite a good cooperator!

Thumbs up savior party bananadude


As a matter of fact, I had the Joe in my hands as I read that line!  LOL!

Thanks a ton once again Mugs, and SROC and Frank and RB and the various Al's, etc...so much great info on a regular basis from the whole long range crew. And the regular contributions from the 'ranter and raver' crew is also very helpful in understanding the info on a plain English level. Hopefully all of this comes together to give us all a nice wintry present or two in the final push here.

What is the KU and how does it help produce snow storms?

KU stands for Kocin-Uccellini, the two meteorologists who co-authored the 2-volume book "Northeast Snowstorms" in 2004. There are 32 selected cases they have between 1950 and 2003 that are views as the big ones (i.e. December 1960, February 1969, February 1978, February 1983, January 1996, February 2003). Those are the KU storms.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Tue Feb 20, 2018 1:56 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
amugs wrote:Jman congrats!!!

More from Doug Fresh to enjoy over your morning Cup o Joe peeps:

I'm sick of the claims that the Pacific is "bad" and that the NAO "can't do it on its own", or whatever bad information gets spread on the interwebs. The -PNA trough retracting, and undercutting an increasingly -EPO pattern -- yielding a split flow and cold air drainage in NW Canada is exactly the type of Pacific pattern I'd want to coincide with this massive west-based -NAO for KU purposes. Without the -NAO, then this Pacific pattern would be bad, but with the -NAO, not only does the Pacific become "not a hindrance", but I actually think it becomes quite a good cooperator!

Thumbs up savior party bananadude


As a matter of fact, I had the Joe in my hands as I read that line!  LOL!

Thanks a ton once again Mugs, and SROC and Frank and RB and the various Al's, etc...so much great info on a regular basis from the whole long range crew. And the regular contributions from the 'ranter and raver' crew is also very helpful in understanding the info on a plain English level. Hopefully all of this comes together to give us all a nice wintry present or two in the final push here.

What is the KU and how does it help produce snow storms?

I appreciate thee shout out snowman.  KU refers to Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini of the National weather service.  When referencing a "KU" storm we are usually talking about a major snowstorm affecting a large area with significant snow totals.  I believe its wide spread 10" or more amounts.  These two developed the NESIS scale to rank big snow storms.  Here is a link from mugsy from a couple of years ago with more information about it.  It is in the weather education thread.  Hope that helps.

http://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t631-nesis-winter-storm-scale

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:02 pm

Scott, I see you posted right after I did Wink

Anyway, this thread is approaching 1100 posts. It it reaches that, this site will split it in two and make a bit of a mess. I would like it if before this can happen, Frank, Scott, or one of the advanced forecasters can create a new LR thread. Given what could transpire in March, I there's a lot to talk about.

And yes, by posting this, I moved us closer to the 1100 post cap.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Carter bk on Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:15 pm

Cant see nyc getting under the freezing mark during daytime the rest of season

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by track17 on Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:17 pm

Carter bk wrote:Cant see nyc getting under the freezing mark during daytime the rest of season

Wait you have me real confused. All of our experts here are saying that we have a chance for cold conditions. Are you seeing something they are not. I am not trying to judge or saying you wrong and they are right just asking why you think this. It is the opposite of what they said. If you or one of are experts can chime in it owuod be great. I am not as smart as other but as of this morning I was pumped for march being cold now your saying the opposite.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:44 pm

track17 wrote:
Carter bk wrote:Cant see nyc getting under the freezing mark during daytime the rest of season

Wait you have me real confused. All of our experts here are saying that we have a chance for cold conditions. Are you seeing something they are not. I am not trying to judge or saying you wrong and they are right just asking why you think this. It is the opposite of what they said. If you or one of are experts can chime in it owuod be great. I am not as smart as other but as of this morning I was pumped for march being cold now your saying the opposite.

Track. All he/she said was that they didn't think NYC doesn't get below freezing as a daytime high for the rest of the season. This does not mean it wont be cold and snowy. Average high temp for NYC on todays date is already 41*. Avg high temp on March 1st is 43* in NYC. That means we need an air mass to provide -11*F departures from normal to achieve a 32* high temp for NYC as of March 1st. By March 7th the avg high is already 45*f meaning a -13 departure from normal is needed to achieve freezing or below freezing daytime High temp. Bottom line is Odds are it will be very difficult to achieve a daytime High at or below freezing forr the rest of the season since the pattern isnt going to support below normal temp departures for about another 5-7days at least.

However; A high temp of 35* on March first would be an 8 degree departure from normal which would be significantly cold relative to the time of year yet would still agree with Carters statement. This doesn't mean it cant snow. So be careful not to misinterpret what some of us are saying about the pattern in front of us. I personally have not mentioned anything about what temps will actually be going forward except to say that the pattern is headed to one that will allow for big snow storms to develop. As we enter March the pattern will allow for below normal temp departures overall, but this doesn't have to mean that a high temp below freezing in NYC will happen, nor does it mean we cant also have a day or two with above normal temps.

Trust me when I tell you there will be at least one BIG storm, wide spread Godzilla or better potential, before all is said and done, but don't think the details of said storm(s) means everyone gets in on the action. Those details will be ironed out inside 3-5days.

When someone makes a general statement like what was said above I wouldn't think much about it without them explaining why.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by WeatherBob on Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:49 pm

I do not see a big storm with this pattern developing for the first 2 weeks of March. Seems like a pattern of random cut- off lows will be the rule. Unless you get that cut off develope over Virginia and move east or east northeast with a surface low on the coast, yes , the storm will be there. However, with the developing pattern, you have better odds at hitting a jackpot on a slot machine than seeing the storm I just mentioned happening. Just my humble opinion.
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