Long Range Thread 16.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:47 am

12z NAM comes north


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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by rb924119 on Fri Mar 30, 2018 12:48 pm


I haven't been able to post because of family medical emergencies, but my last post a while back was very positive for this upcoming potential (my target period at the time was March 30th-April 3rd, way back in the earlier pages of this thread). It's great to see the threat actually showing up and matching what my arguably insane mind was seeing, but due to recent events I haven't been able to be as vocal or active in drumming up excitement as somebody like @amugs lol I don't really see a reason to think that we won't continue to see threats through the next one to two weeks, though, as we will continue to see spokes of energy swing around the TPV and possibly tango with some other energy from other sources. Also, this time of year, I can see higher odds of over performing systems given inherent instability in the lower-level baroclinicity and increased moisture fluxes. Lastly, the dual-jet structure of this first threat is a red flag to me to watch for just that, as you have a short, stubby jet coupling with the main northern stream. Throw in the enhanced thermal components as mentioned, and I can certainly see warning criteria snows from this, especially if it swings through at night. Sorry I haven been able to be more active recently and provide more regarding this period!! :/

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Grselig on Fri Mar 30, 2018 1:16 pm

rb924119 wrote:
I haven't been able to post because of family medical emergencies, but my last post a while back was very positive for this upcoming potential (my target period at the time was March 30th-April 3rd, way back in the earlier pages of this thread). It's great to see the threat actually showing up and matching what my arguably insane mind was seeing, but due to recent events I haven't been able to be as vocal or active in drumming up excitement as somebody like @amugs lol I don't really see a reason to think that we won't continue to see threats through the next one to two weeks, though, as we will continue to see spokes of energy swing around the TPV and possibly tango with some other energy from other sources. Also, this time of year, I can see higher odds of over performing systems given inherent instability in the lower-level baroclinicity and increased moisture fluxes. Lastly, the dual-jet structure of this first threat is a red flag to me to watch for just that, as you have a short, stubby jet coupling with the main northern stream. Throw in the enhanced thermal components as mentioned, and I can certainly see warning criteria snows from this, especially if it swings through at night. Sorry I haven been able to be more active recently and provide more regarding this period!! :/

Thanks for the post. I hope everything turns out OK. Family more important than any weather stuff.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 on Fri Mar 30, 2018 1:44 pm

rb, best wishes and hope everything works out with the family situation.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by frank 638 on Fri Mar 30, 2018 2:52 pm

Rb thanks for the update .I hope everything is ok with your family and there is positive news

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by heehaw453 on Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:38 am

Latest guidance seems to suggest 2-5" inch kind of deal for Sunday night/Monday morning. Something else to watch next weekend too in terms of more snow. Unreal. I may just get to the 70" mark yet.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 on Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:23 am

The system around April 7 intrigues me a bit more than Monday because I think while Monday looks more certain now the potential with next weekends storm is better. A cold front ushers in very cold (for this time of year) temps with highs only in the 30s Saturday as the models seem to want to develop a storm just to our south on the coast. Euro has a nice trough digging along the coast at this time, GFS is a little flatter. Very interesting setup. Could be a complete miss - but if not could be an April “surprise.”
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Sat Mar 31, 2018 9:09 am

sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:hey just read an article on our local patch and saw that Accuweather is suppressing the next threat to the south..with no chance of hitting us...

Right where we want it at this time:  told ya

I may cry uncle.  Scott how’d you do?

The threat that is being supressed to the south would be for Sunday Monday ish.  That actually does look like that will happen BUT as we haver all seen we will look for the NW trend as we get in tight.  How far ehh I dont think we have to worry but well see.


sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I'll check in on the 5th as we know this yr nothing has really shown till 48 hrs or less.

Don’t sleep on the 1st-4th


Like a blood hound I love sniffing out the faint odors of a snow event. Ray, Frank, Mugs, Bill etc and the rest of the NJ Strong crew were all over it.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Mar 31, 2018 9:23 am

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:hey just read an article on our local patch and saw that Accuweather is suppressing the next threat to the south..with no chance of hitting us...

Right where we want it at this time:  told ya

I may cry uncle.  Scott how’d you do?

The threat that is being supressed to the south would be for Sunday Monday ish.  That actually does look like that will happen BUT as we haver all seen we will look for the NW trend as we get in tight.  How far ehh I dont think we have to worry but well see.


sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I'll check in on the 5th as we know this yr nothing has really shown till 48 hrs or less.

Don’t sleep on the 1st-4th


Like a blood hound I love sniffing out the faint odors of a snow event.  Ray, Frank, Mugs, Bill etc and the rest of the NJ Strong crew were all over it.  

You've been great all year Doc but didn't you and Jim Morrison put an end to winter several days ago? Loved the song but hated the implications and the zonal flow behind it.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Sat Mar 31, 2018 9:56 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:hey just read an article on our local patch and saw that Accuweather is suppressing the next threat to the south..with no chance of hitting us...

Right where we want it at this time:  told ya

I may cry uncle.  Scott how’d you do?

The threat that is being supressed to the south would be for Sunday Monday ish.  That actually does look like that will happen BUT as we haver all seen we will look for the NW trend as we get in tight.  How far ehh I dont think we have to worry but well see.


sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I'll check in on the 5th as we know this yr nothing has really shown till 48 hrs or less.

Don’t sleep on the 1st-4th


Like a blood hound I love sniffing out the faint odors of a snow event.  Ray, Frank, Mugs, Bill etc and the rest of the NJ Strong crew were all over it.  

You've been great all year Doc but didn't you and Jim Morrison put an end to winter several days ago? Loved the song but hated the implications and the zonal flow behind it.

Fair enough question Cp, however:

sroc4 wrote:Pattern looking to become zonal.  While I suppose I cannot 100% rule out one more, I’m afraid....



Pattern IS looking becoming more zonal:  afro   flower  afro



AND I did not 100% rule out 1 more:  geek What a Face   geek  

Therefore while I was afraid that this was:




I was wrong about this point. AND regarding the potential for late week into the weekend there just might be one more PNA spike that could, might, potentially, maybe, lead to 1 more...even though odds are against it: Wink

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 on Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:23 pm

And then there’s that 18z GFS from dawn Saturday into Monday morning. Very Happy
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Radz on Sun Apr 01, 2018 12:33 pm

12Z GFS destroys NW of the city next weekend...
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 on Sun Apr 01, 2018 12:49 pm

Yep, 12z GFS still on it for next Sat night and Sunday. Wink
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Sun Apr 01, 2018 1:58 pm

Scott we have an Archimbault event in the making as I see it for next weekends Nor.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Apr 01, 2018 3:48 pm

ear lord 12z GFS!!! 2 feet + N & W and godzilla even into NYC, thats insane.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Apr 01, 2018 3:50 pm

CMC on board for a areawide gopdzilla next weekend too, what does Euro show?
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 on Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:32 pm

Euro has the coastal storm too but further off the coast on Sunday I think. Although the fact that the GFS comes further north and closer to the coast is what causes the mixing issues for many so a track slightly further south and east could make things snowier - if it doesn’t stay toooo far S&E.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:36 pm

Right where we want it for next weekend. One model west; one east. Perfect. I’m a little saucey. Happy Easter friends.

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 3.00" (First snow Nov 15th)
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 on Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:38 pm

Waiting to get a full look at the 18z run. But right now it is continuing (as it has been for several days) to intrigue me.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 on Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:39 pm

Happy Easter!
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 on Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:54 pm

Yep 18z GFS still has a major snowstorm Saturday night through Sunday. Lol. 6 days of model shifting to go but it’s been relatively consistent the past two days with this.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Apr 01, 2018 10:25 pm

If this storm pans out it would be very heavy wet snow even inland, this would dwarf the last one in terms of power outages, would be very serious. April storms of that magnitude are not good in that respect.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 on Sun Apr 01, 2018 10:34 pm

jmanley32 wrote:If this storm pans out it would be very heavy wet snow even inland, this would dwarf the last one in terms of power outages, would be very serious. April storms of that magnitude are not good in that respect.

Yeah a foot of heavy wet snow would be problematic even without winds but this could produce some wind as well. Other thing is, God forbid some trees start to bud this week branches could be heavier.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Apr 01, 2018 10:40 pm

billg315 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:If this storm pans out it would be very heavy wet snow even inland, this would dwarf the last one in terms of power outages, would be very serious. April storms of that magnitude are not good in that respect.

Yeah a foot of heavy wet snow would be problematic even without winds but this could produce some wind as well. Other thing is, God forbid some trees start to bud this week branches could be heavier.
oy yeah, here, especially CT I dunno if theres any trees left to fall, its just utter tree destruction in ct, a 2 hr drive along coast id say every 10 ft a large tree of mass of trees are splintered. My mom said my hometown is just in ruins, tons of cleanup has not even started yet, power was back pretty quickly but tons of yards and sides of roads piled with cut of trees
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by docstox12 on Mon Apr 02, 2018 5:58 am

billg315 wrote:Yep 18z GFS still has a major snowstorm Saturday night through Sunday. Lol. 6 days of model shifting to go but it’s been relatively consistent the past two days with this.

Wow, the pattern that just keeps giving! It's been an amazing stretch since March 1.My only wish is that this snowy stretch had happened during that extreme cold we had in December-January.Not complaining.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

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