Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

by **jmanley32** on Mon Apr 02, 2018 8:44 am

Not surprising storm for late this week now a non event here verbatim overnight gfs.

by **billg315** on Mon Apr 02, 2018 8:51 am

It'll come back. Probably the typical big storm 10 days out, models lose it at 6 or 7 days, then find it again at 4 days out.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** on Mon Apr 02, 2018 8:54 am

jmanley32 wrote:Not surprising storm for late this week now a non event here verbatim overnight gfs.

meaningless at this stage

by **jmanley32** on Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:08 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Not surprising storm for late this week now a non event here verbatim overnight gfs.

meaningless at this stage

You guys never seem to understand me I said VERBATIM, I am well aware it means nothing I fully expect it to come back at some pt, also possible it doesnt though.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** on Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:16 am

jmanley32 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Not surprising storm for late this week now a non event here verbatim overnight gfs.

meaningless at this stage
You guys never seem to understand me I said VERBATIM, I am well aware it means nothing I fully expect it to come back at some pt, also possible it doesnt though.

We get ya, we're just re-emphasizing the point.

by **amugs** on Mon Apr 02, 2018 8:26 pm

by **oldtimer** on Mon Apr 02, 2018 8:35 pm

Amugs. LP off the Carolina coast Saturday??

by **amugs** on Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:02 pm

oldtimer wrote:Amugs. LP off the Carolina coast Saturday??

by **billg315** on Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:04 pm

18z GFS has the storm back. Only lost it for 12 hours. Lol.

by **oldtimer** on Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:28 pm

Hope we can have some fun tracking this during the week!

by **billg315** on Tue Apr 03, 2018 9:42 am

A lot of activity from Friday night through Monday on the GFS. I'm not sure it has it all figured out yet, but there will be a lot happening to keep an eye on this weekend. Right now it spreads things out as three distinct systems. Earlier it had everything kind of coming together as one, or two events. I think it will have a better handle on things by Thursday so for now not putting much stock in any one run.

by **skinsfan1177** on Tue Apr 03, 2018 9:51 am

It will come north

by **Dunnzoo** on Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:05 am

This month is shaping up to be a wet one, April showers, they ain't kidding! It seems every few days it's going to be wet. Between all the dampness and pollen with things starting to bloom, allergies are going to be awful!

by **amugs** on Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:06 am

N&W Posters - Interior event

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** on Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:49 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:It will come north

Most Likely, It's been the theme most of the winter

by **nutleyblizzard** on Tue Apr 03, 2018 12:15 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:It will come north

Most Likely, It's been the theme most of the winter

Right on cue 12z GFS comes north.

by **jmanley32** on Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:44 pm

Ahh 3 noreaster each a day apart!!! Please tell me that's a joke I've never seen that let alone in April.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** on Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:38 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Ahh 3 noreaster each a day apart!!! Please tell me that's a joke I've never seen that let alone in April.

It will never happen, one in a million 3 in April but if it ever did it would be something we could tell our grandkids about.

by **amugs** on Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:45 pm

What the Euro, GFS and CCM are all showing for April is absolutely remarkable that we dont have to worry about temps for these next systems as depicted currently at h5 - I dont recall seeing such in April let alone a winter month.

SAT

LOOK AT THIS - ARE YOU KIDDING ME FOR APRIL???
PHASED SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND A PNA SPIKE WITH A N NAO

JB SAYS GET READY FOR A HISTORIC STRETCH

I think there are two more significant, if not major, snow events left in this pattern the next 10 day and while the modeling seems to want to stick it south of the track we have seen overall

I think there is a good chance the axis will wind up close to where the snowstorm yesterday hit

by **Math23x7** on Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:17 pm

Well just think, if one of these events ends up being a Frankzilla, then 2017-18 would surpass 1995-96 for the seasonal snowfall record Razz

In all seriousness though, will the conga line of systems, I could see a lot of doubleheaders later this year. Heck, the Mets already have one scheduled for July after yesterday. I could see some more. They are scheduled to play in DC this weekend.

by **SoulSingMG** on Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:30 pm

BERNIE RAYNO:

"Two things I have learned....never trust (1) Closed off upper lows and
(2) fresh injection of cold air. We have a fresh injection of cold air into the NE/N VA Fri nt into Sat. Sound the snow threat alarm for Sat into Sun. Earlier tweet shows the 500 mb and the area of concern."

by **Frank_Wx** on Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:16 am

An impressive spike in the PNA ridge and we're still in a -NAO regime. Amazing what a +PNA/-NAO couplet can do, even in the month of April. We're likely to see another accumulating snowfall event this weekend. I like what I see. We're not far off from an even larger storm. There is no phase on the GFS verbatim. If there was, it could have been an April Godzilla. The blocking may be too weak for the phase to come together, however. But it's close enough that it should be watched closely.

by **sroc4** on Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:37 am

Yes we have seen systems trend further north in tight esp since March. I have been watching pretty much all guidance "walk" this weekends snow threat slow but steadily north. This has not been erratic mood swings from the models where we have Frankzilla one minute; then a swing and a miss by 500miles south the next which makes this all more credidible. This is a system that started south and conts to slowly trend it north. Why? Because of what Frank outlined above. In the long and md ranges the full extent of the PNA spike and the influences of the N latitude blocking pattern well established gets focused on the modeling only in tight. This tells me this is a very real threat for significant accumulation (mothra-Godzilla potential) for asignificant portion of our board.

This is Bernie Rayno's latest tweet from this morning and agrees

by **Frank_Wx** on Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:01 am

00z EURO Ensembles

by **billg315** on Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:13 am

I’ve been looking at this April 7 time frame for over a week and other than a couple model run hiccups here or there, there hasn’t been a time when it didn’t look to have great potential. Now down to three days out I think we can say it’s officially moved from speculation realm to legit threat. Timing as always in April is key for accumulation but there is no shortage of cold air for this.

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