Long Range Thread 16.0

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Post by sroc4 on Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:05 am

NAM

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_50
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_51

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by oldtimer on Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:32 am

Sroc That's without a phase?

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:34 am

sroc4 wrote:NAM

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_50
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_51

We should probably open up a thread for this. Someone on this forum looks likely to get accumulating snow from it.
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:48 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
sroc4 wrote:NAM

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_50
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_51

We should probably open up a thread for this. Someone on this forum looks likely to get accumulating snow from it.
someone that's almost everyone! Jeeze crazy
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Post by Smittyaj623 on Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:00 am

And the shore? Please I can’t keep living with all this hype and get nothing again. Should be cold enough correct? We have plenty of cold air to play with.

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Post by sroc4 on Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:45 am

Smittyaj623 wrote:And the shore? Please I can’t keep living with all this hype and get nothing again. Should be cold enough correct? We have plenty of cold air to play with.

No hype smitty. This is a snow storm in April. If this storm happens like the NAM showed verbatim it will accumulate for many on our form. In your back yard??? I dont know yet. So when you live along the NJ shore and its April you keep expectations low.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:47 am

oldtimer wrote:Sroc   That's without a phase?

Yes

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Namconus_z500_vort_us_53

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by heehaw453 on Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:58 am

12Z GFS outputs very healthy snow amounts for many on order of 6"-12". The 850's are very cold (-5 to -10) and even surface temperature below freezing. I can only hope this pans out.

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:03 pm

THIS IS insane - GFS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE A SECS TO MECS FOR SOME AREAS - COLD TOO AS HEEHAW HAS POINTED OUT!
DID I SAY OTHER DAY HISTORIC TIMEFRAME /APRIL - COULD VERY WELL BE!

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Gfs_apcpn24_neus_11

ZOO LOOK OUR SCREW ZONE IS HERE TOOO - CAN MAKE THIS SUP!!!!!!!!!

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Screenshot.thumb.png.8ddd51931e4558ced80a7b2832f8bb9d




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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:04 pm

Look at this Northern Trend - WOW
from Alex123

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Gfs_asnow_neus_fh90_trend.gif.791c17642c5f7b1a0f6721ede1e58bf5


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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:05 pm

No thread for this?
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Post by Smittyaj623 on Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:35 pm

I know it’s only one model but the CMC May be onto something on the 10-11th...looks like a New England Storm rn but it’s close...

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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:24 pm

Theres not gonna be anymore snow, Note Frank took down all the snow index meaning he does not feel there are any threats.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:23 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Theres not gonna be anymore snow, Note Frank took down all the snow index meaning he does not feel there are any threats.

This weekend looks dead as a door knob.

I'm still holding out hope for Tuesday.
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:44 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Theres not gonna be anymore snow, Note Frank took down all the snow index meaning he does not feel there are any threats.

This weekend looks dead as a door knob.

I'm still holding out hope for Tuesday.
Well I hope you get snow, let it rain here, not gonna give up another day from our next school vacation for snow day.
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Post by billg315 on Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:49 am

Flow becomes a little less zonal and more active the third week of April. Could make for some heavy rain events (snow well in the interior) and maybe our first severe weather outbreak(s)?
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Post by amugs on Sun Apr 08, 2018 10:00 pm

This is nuts from JB
Harping on an end game storm around April17th. We get a coastal hugger  through here next Monday and behind it pulls down cold air  again and we have a storm ala 2007. 
GEFS show this

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Img_2062
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Img_2063

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Post by amugs on Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:33 pm

Huge BDCF =back door cold front will be sweeping through taking the 80''s to low40''s in parts of our family area from Saturday through Sunday.
And this for Monday Ice Ice baby wth??? From earthlight aka JH
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Img_2064

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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:01 pm

Before anyone says "Worst Spring Ever", let's go back to 2003:

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Spring11

Here are a more date specific temperature anomaly (March 31st to June 22nd) with temperature anomalies in Kelvin as opposed to Fahrenheit:

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Spring12

And here is the Friday to Monday of Memorial Day weekend (23rd to 26th).  In NYC, the highest temperature during those four days was 62 degrees(!)  It was overcast/rainy the whole time:

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Memori10

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:18 pm

Math23x7 wrote:Before anyone says "Worst Spring Ever", let's go back to 2003:

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Spring11

Here are a more date specific temperature anomaly (March 31st to June 22nd) with temperature anomalies in Kelvin as opposed to Fahrenheit:

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Spring12

And here is the Friday to Monday of Memorial Day weekend (23rd to 26th).  In NYC, the highest temperature during those four days was 62 degrees(!)  It was overcast/rainy the whole time:

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Memori10

Best Spring ever. It's all how you view things.
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:36 pm

amugs wrote:This is nuts from JB
Harping on an end game storm around April17th. We get a coastal hugger  through here next Monday and behind it pulls down cold air  again and we have a storm ala 2007. 
GEFS show this

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Img_2062
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Img_2063

Two years ago, when it was very chilly in spring, Frank put "Worst Spring Ever" on the banner crawl

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Post by dkodgis on Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:21 pm

The trend north from guidance “looks” waaaay north in a hurry. I’d be pleased to see some pink move back down a bit toward us. The temps will determine our fates
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Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 33 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Snow88 on Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:28 pm

Icestorm for Central and New England on the Euro
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Post by dkodgis on Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:19 am

And so...peekng ahead four days.:..what are we looking at?
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Post by Fededle22 on Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:12 pm

I know a lot or people are still looking for more snow but I just can't take this cold anymore. Do we know when we are at least going to be at normal temperatures? Above normal? I'm not expecting Friday and Saturday temps but upper 60s would be nice.
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