Long Range Thread 16.0

Page 33 of 34 Previous  1 ... 18 ... 32, 33, 34  Next

Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:05 am

NAM



_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5649
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by oldtimer on Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:32 am

Sroc That's without a phase?

oldtimer
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1049
Reputation : 13
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 72
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:34 am

sroc4 wrote:NAM



We should probably open up a thread for this. Someone on this forum looks likely to get accumulating snow from it.
avatar
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 5801
Reputation : 133
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 56
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Sector 4

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:48 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
sroc4 wrote:NAM



We should probably open up a thread for this. Someone on this forum looks likely to get accumulating snow from it.
someone that's almost everyone! Jeeze crazy
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14759
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Smittyaj623 on Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:00 am

And the shore? Please I can’t keep living with all this hype and get nothing again. Should be cold enough correct? We have plenty of cold air to play with.

Smittyaj623

Posts : 69
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2018-03-06
Age : 17
Location : Bayville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:45 am

Smittyaj623 wrote:And the shore? Please I can’t keep living with all this hype and get nothing again. Should be cold enough correct? We have plenty of cold air to play with.

No hype smitty. This is a snow storm in April. If this storm happens like the NAM showed verbatim it will accumulate for many on our form. In your back yard??? I dont know yet. So when you live along the NJ shore and its April you keep expectations low.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5649
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by sroc4 on Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:47 am

oldtimer wrote:Sroc   That's without a phase?

Yes


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5649
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by heehaw453 on Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:58 am

12Z GFS outputs very healthy snow amounts for many on order of 6"-12". The 850's are very cold (-5 to -10) and even surface temperature below freezing. I can only hope this pans out.

heehaw453

Posts : 73
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:03 pm

THIS IS insane - GFS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE A SECS TO MECS FOR SOME AREAS - COLD TOO AS HEEHAW HAS POINTED OUT!
DID I SAY OTHER DAY HISTORIC TIMEFRAME /APRIL - COULD VERY WELL BE!



ZOO LOOK OUR SCREW ZONE IS HERE TOOO - CAN MAKE THIS SUP!!!!!!!!!






_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9507
Reputation : 106
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:04 pm

Look at this Northern Trend - WOW
from Alex123




_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9507
Reputation : 106
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:05 pm

No thread for this?
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14759
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Smittyaj623 on Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:35 pm

I know it’s only one model but the CMC May be onto something on the 10-11th...looks like a New England Storm rn but it’s close...

Smittyaj623

Posts : 69
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2018-03-06
Age : 17
Location : Bayville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:24 pm

Theres not gonna be anymore snow, Note Frank took down all the snow index meaning he does not feel there are any threats.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14759
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:23 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Theres not gonna be anymore snow, Note Frank took down all the snow index meaning he does not feel there are any threats.

This weekend looks dead as a door knob.

I'm still holding out hope for Tuesday.
avatar
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 5801
Reputation : 133
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 56
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Sector 4

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:44 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Theres not gonna be anymore snow, Note Frank took down all the snow index meaning he does not feel there are any threats.

This weekend looks dead as a door knob.

I'm still holding out hope for Tuesday.
Well I hope you get snow, let it rain here, not gonna give up another day from our next school vacation for snow day.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14759
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 on Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:49 am

Flow becomes a little less zonal and more active the third week of April. Could make for some heavy rain events (snow well in the interior) and maybe our first severe weather outbreak(s)?
avatar
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2180
Reputation : 114
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Sun Apr 08, 2018 10:00 pm

This is nuts from JB
Harping on an end game storm around April17th. We get a coastal hugger  through here next Monday and behind it pulls down cold air  again and we have a storm ala 2007. 
GEFS show this



_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9507
Reputation : 106
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by amugs on Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:33 pm

Huge BDCF =back door cold front will be sweeping through taking the 80''s to low40''s in parts of our family area from Saturday through Sunday.
And this for Monday Ice Ice baby wth??? From earthlight aka JH

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9507
Reputation : 106
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:01 pm

Before anyone says "Worst Spring Ever", let's go back to 2003:



Here are a more date specific temperature anomaly (March 31st to June 22nd) with temperature anomalies in Kelvin as opposed to Fahrenheit:



And here is the Friday to Monday of Memorial Day weekend (23rd to 26th).  In NYC, the highest temperature during those four days was 62 degrees(!)  It was overcast/rainy the whole time:


Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2107
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-01-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:18 pm

Math23x7 wrote:Before anyone says "Worst Spring Ever", let's go back to 2003:



Here are a more date specific temperature anomaly (March 31st to June 22nd) with temperature anomalies in Kelvin as opposed to Fahrenheit:



And here is the Friday to Monday of Memorial Day weekend (23rd to 26th).  In NYC, the highest temperature during those four days was 62 degrees(!)  It was overcast/rainy the whole time:


Best Spring ever. It's all how you view things.
avatar
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 5801
Reputation : 133
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 56
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Sector 4

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:36 pm

amugs wrote:This is nuts from JB
Harping on an end game storm around April17th. We get a coastal hugger  through here next Monday and behind it pulls down cold air  again and we have a storm ala 2007. 
GEFS show this



Two years ago, when it was very chilly in spring, Frank put "Worst Spring Ever" on the banner crawl

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2107
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-01-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by dkodgis on Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:21 pm

The trend north from guidance “looks” waaaay north in a hurry. I’d be pleased to see some pink move back down a bit toward us. The temps will determine our fates
avatar
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 571
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-12-29

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Snow88 on Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:28 pm

Icestorm for Central and New England on the Euro
avatar
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2005
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 29
Location : Brooklyn, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by dkodgis on Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:19 am

And so...peekng ahead four days.:..what are we looking at?
avatar
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 571
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-12-29

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Fededle22 on Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:12 pm

I know a lot or people are still looking for more snow but I just can't take this cold anymore. Do we know when we are at least going to be at normal temperatures? Above normal? I'm not expecting Friday and Saturday temps but upper 60s would be nice.
avatar
Fededle22

Posts : 112
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2013-03-08
Location : West Orange, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 33 of 34 Previous  1 ... 18 ... 32, 33, 34  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum