MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by Carter bk on Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:15 pm

This is a big rain storm for most of the members unless your at least 75 miles north west of nyc just not enough cold. But i also note that a few days ago we were see warm and rain so at this point i guess no one knows

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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by WeatherBob on Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:33 pm

NWS Red Sox Suck and NY are going to wait till the Weds night model runs to make any significant change in their current forecasts. As such, they will not make any significant forecast changes until Thursday morning.  It’s like the GFS is their biggest money sponsor and they don’t want to rock the boat.


Last edited by WeatherBob on Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:37 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by WeatherBob on Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:36 pm

Wait , how did Frank program this so that when you type B*s*on it says Red Sox Suck. I swear to God I typed B*s*on.
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by bloc1357 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:37 pm

So...what are the chances my flight gets out of Laguardia at 7:50 AM on Friday??

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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:39 pm

Carter bk wrote:This is a big rain storm for most of the members unless your at least 75 miles north west of nyc just not enough cold.  But i also note that a few days ago we were see warm and rain so at this point i guess no one knows

You could very well be right with this. But for the sake of scientific discussion, might I just ask you WHY you think this? And no, this is not meant to be sarcastic in any way. Honest question.

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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:41 pm

WeatherBob wrote:NWS Red Sox Suck and NY are going to wait till the Weds night model runs to make any significant change in their current forecasts. As such, they will not make any significant forecast changes until Thursday morning.  It’s like the GFS is their biggest money sponsor and they don’t want to rock the boat.
you did. It changes it lol. Prolly pretty easy programming. He also did nam back when it was aweful to say not a model. I guess we have since embraced it.
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by Snow88 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:41 pm

GFS and GEFS are wrong
The primary is not going to ram into that block like that
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by Snow88 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:43 pm

18z RGEM

Wind gusts on this run are insane

NYC sees 70+

Cape cod sees near 100 mph
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:44 pm

WeatherBob wrote:NWS Red Sox Suck and NY are going to wait till the Weds night model runs to make any significant change in their current forecasts. As such, they will not make any significant forecast changes until Thursday morning.  It’s like the GFS is their biggest money sponsor and they don’t want to rock the boat.

I found out something very interesting about the NWS recently that sheds light onto this whole situation, but you're absolutely right. No question. And even with the NAM's exceptional performance these last few years, they continue to pay it no respect whatsoever. And at best, they will blend the EURO and UKMET in sometimes. Just unreal.

To answer your Bo*ton to Red Sox Suck question, he did this back in 2015 when when they were in the process of break their all-time snow record lmfao we got so sick of it being them it was requested by somebody if we could change their name. Frank, being the great leader that he is, found a way to do this on the forum so that every time that city is mentioned, it reflects our ever-present disdain for it AhahAha

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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:44 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Nws has started hwo discussing wind concerns coastal areas and possible sig snow north. The fact that they are now saying this is encouraging. I'm thinking they will be updated to add snow of some type to coast as even 3 inches tied with winds which they say may b a 24 hr deal is pretty serious. It's also funny nws bean town has no hwo but my guess is it's being updated.

My feels right now:

https://giphy.com/gifs/movie-bruce-willis-die-hard-fY4AWE5NkNRhS
yep lol and they will prolly remove it again and change it at least 10x lol. I think it's haphazard to wait till Thursday no one will be prepared. Not that there's much to prepare for it's a strong noreaster wcs there are a lot power outages.
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:45 pm

bloc1357 wrote:So...what are the chances my flight gets out of Laguardia at 7:50 AM on Friday??

I'm no aviation expert, but I'd be willing to bet sub-50% lmao though don't quote me on that, as I'm not a flyer either ahaha

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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:46 pm

Snow88 wrote:18z RGEM

Wind gusts on this run are insane

NYC sees 70+

Cape cod sees near 100 mph

What.......

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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:47 pm

Snow88 wrote:18z RGEM

Wind gusts on this run are insane

NYC sees 70+

Cape cod sees near 100 mph
wtf!!! Wow I need see this Jesus. How is the rgem with winds? I know nam overdoes precip and at times winds. Screw NYC I'm go cape. BTW where's Alex? He drove out there once and net csntore and was on TV. So cool.
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:47 pm

Snow88 wrote:18z RGEM

Wind gusts on this run are insane

NYC sees 70+

Cape cod sees near 100 mph

I stopped paying attention yesterday, honestly AhahAha it'll come around Friday night lmfao

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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:51 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Snow88 wrote:18z RGEM

Wind gusts on this run are insane

NYC sees 70+

Cape cod sees near 100 mph

What.......
rb can u confirm this and if so maps?
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by track17 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:53 pm

What about the winds on jersey

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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by WeatherBob on Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:01 pm

RB - don’t want to digress to much off topic and assault you with questions, but I thought the NAM was specifically designed for east coast snowstorms. Also if this is the case, haven’t they updated the programming over the last several years by matching up what was forecasted to what actually happened?
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:01 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Snow88 wrote:18z RGEM

Wind gusts on this run are insane

NYC sees 70+

Cape cod sees near 100 mph

What.......
rb can u confirm this and if so maps?

I knew you were gonna ask me this lmao

NOTE THIS IS IN KM/H, NOT, I REPEAT, **NOT M/Hr**. I believe the conversion is approximately 1.6 or 1.8 km = 1 mi (per hr), so actual wind speeds would be a little more than half of these by our standard of M/Hr.



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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:08 pm

WeatherBob wrote:RB - don’t want to digress to much off topic and assault you with questions, but I thought the NAM was specifically designed for east coast snowstorms.  Also if this is the case, haven’t they updated the programming over the last several years by matching up what was forecasted to what actually happened?

Nah man, you're good!! That's why this forum is here!! If nobody asked questions, A) it would be kinda boring, and B) there would many fewer catalysts for further learning lol I do not know this to be the case. It could be, but I haven't heard this before. However, I definitely know they made changes to some of the parameterization schemes a few years back, and also increased the resolution. They also followed these changes through the SREF suite, which is base on the same dynamical core of the NAM (basically the SREFS are the NAM ensemble). I don't exactly know the specifics of these changes, but I can definitely say they drastically improved the performance of both systems. I'd even argue that the NAM has one of the highest threat scores inside of its operational window than any other global model, save maybe the UKMET. Purely my opinion of course, as I don't know what the actual threat/skill scores are haha

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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by track17 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:09 pm

Thank you so much Rb. Yea the nam has really killed it these past few yrs

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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by billg315 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:09 pm

We are most likely looking at sustained 20-25 mph winds with gusts of 40-50 mph. Wind forecasts are often overdone. I think this type of storm will bring winds typical of a strong nor-easter. The gusts may be a bit higher than that on the coast but not much.
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:14 pm

billg315 wrote:We are most likely looking at sustained 20-25 mph winds with gusts of 40-50 mph. Wind forecasts are often overdone. I think this type of storm will bring winds typical of a strong nor-easter.  The gusts may be a bit higher than that on the coast but not much.

I think this is a very fair and accurate statement. These types of systems are always gustier versus their sustained component. Very, very difficult to get high sustained wind inland from the coast in a non-tropical system. But the gusts relative to the background state are much more extreme than in tropical systems.

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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by WeatherBob on Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:17 pm

Thanks RB. It’s funny, in my day, 81 to 85, there was just one operational model, that’s it. It was the LFM (Limited Fine Mesh) . It only forecasted out to 48 hrs and had 60 Nautical Mile Grid Points. Talk about winter forecast challenges!
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:40 pm

WeatherBob wrote:Thanks RB. It’s funny, in my day, 81 to 85, there was just one operational model, that’s it.  It was the LFM (Limited Fine Mesh) .  It only forecasted out to 48 hrs and had 60 Nautical Mile Grid Points.  Talk about winter forecast challenges!

Were you in the Weather Service, or a private entity? If you don't mind me asking lol and I actually have heard of that model!! Though, admittedly, I don't know much about it haha and yeah, you really had to know your stuff to forecast without the help we have now. I couldn't imagine what that was like, and probably couldn't do it, to be honest.

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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by billg315 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:46 pm

We are probably getting a bit off topic, (but we're in a brief model lull, so maybe not a bad thing) but I have to say I am always impressed by the challenges meteorologists faced 30-40 years ago (and more) with limited modeling, less data, and even less real-time info. What a difficult job to be able to look at a map, a satellite, some raw data, and not much more and figure out what was going to happen. Of course today the new challenge may be too MUCH modeling and data, i.e., what do you trust and what do your throw out. lol.
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