MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

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Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:10 pm

WeatherBob wrote:RB - you still not buying into anything the GFS is saying?

I mean, a broken clock can right be right twice a day, but it is pretty much entirely on its own, and seeing its solution doesn't fit the overall pattern in addition to its other obvious issues, I think its flat-out wrong. Now, could it end up being right for the wrong reasons? Sure. But I'm still hedging my bets against that.

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Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:17 pm

THE EURO CAVES THE EURP CAVES THE EURO CAVES!!!!!!!!!!!!! 8-12" NYC BABAYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

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Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:18 pm

1-3" ALL THE WAY TO AC!!!!!!!! LET'S GOOCOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OH RAY BOY FIREDDDDDD UPPPPPPPPPPPP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:19 pm

WE GOT A MID-LEVEL CCB BAND LIKE WE HAVE SELDOM SEEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OMG LET'S GOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! party party party party party party party party party party party

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Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:20 pm

omg the EURO just changed the game, piggybacking on the UKMET!
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:23 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:omg the EURO just changed the game, piggybacking on the UKMET!
Snow map please.
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Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:24 pm

BEST PART OF ALL OF THIS IS THAT THE EURO STILL HAS MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS TO BE MADE AT THE SURFACE. I THINK YOU ADD UP TO ANOTHER 6" ON THESE TOTALS, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN THESE DYNAMICS.

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Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:27 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:omg the EURO just changed the game, piggybacking on the UKMET!
Snow map please.

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 2 Screen21

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Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:28 pm

SNOW NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON AND WARNING-CRITERIA NORTH OF I-78 BABAYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Post by algae888 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:28 pm

WOW!!!!!!! EuRO!!!!.
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Post by algae888 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:30 pm

I'll keep saying if the mid in Upper levels are below zero and the low pressure center is southeast of us we are going to snow even if the temperature is 40 degrees and raining at the beginning of this system can't trust the models with the surface Maps
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Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:30 pm

ARESIAN YOU GOT YOUR EARS ON, BUD????? HERE'S ONE SECS, WITH MULTIPLE MORE TO FOLLOW!!!!! IT'S ONLY THE THIRD QUARTER MY FRIEND, PICK YOUR TOWEL BACK UP AND WIPE YOUR FACE, BECAUSE WE GOT AN END GAME TO FINISH THIS SEASON!!!!!

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Post by jimv45 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:32 pm

That looks good to me bring it on!!!!

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:33 pm

rb924119 wrote:BEST PART OF ALL OF THIS IS THAT THE EURO STILL HAS MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS TO BE MADE AT THE SURFACE. I THINK YOU ADD UP TO ANOTHER 6" ON THESE TOTALS, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN THESE DYNAMICS.
EPS should be interesting to say the least. I would like to hear Frank's thoughts on todays runs.
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Post by billg315 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:44 pm

I’ve been waiting since the NAM runs last night for the Euro to come to its senses and join the party. I discounted the gfs but without the euro on board it gave me pause. Now I know the GFS is the one that’s almost certainly out to lunch.
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Post by billg315 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:46 pm

Still a ways to go but things are progressing nicely.
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Post by Grselig on Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:00 pm

Ray, you come back, and this is what happens!!!!!!! Great having you back!!!!!! Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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Post by Scullybutcher on Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:06 pm

My hats off to you RB.
hurryup
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Post by WeatherBob on Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:07 pm

Hey RB, can I start the RB cheer yet?
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Post by Guest on Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:09 pm

rb924119 wrote:ARESIAN YOU GOT YOUR EARS ON, BUD????? HERE'S ONE SECS, WITH MULTIPLE MORE TO FOLLOW!!!!! IT'S ONLY THE THIRD QUARTER MY FRIEND, PICK YOUR TOWEL BACK UP AND WIPE YOUR FACE, BECAUSE WE GOT AN END GAME TO FINISH THIS SEASON!!!!!

I've got my ears on, but I'm cleaning and recleaning them because I'd swear I'm hearing you say that multiple SECS type storms are going to reach far enough inland to affect me. I'm in no way questioning your knowledge, but hearing it's even possible has me a bit taken aback.

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Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:21 pm

WeatherBob wrote:Hey RB, can I start the RB cheer yet?

ABSOLUTELY NOT. That would be the proverbial kiss of death if there ever was one ahaha You know the terms engagement for this already lmao

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:22 pm

EPS MSLP transfer, placement and intensity looks great!

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 3.1" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace
Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"
Dec 11th = 2"
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:23 pm

Rb what do einds look like on 12z euro? It looks more like 3 to 6 NYC no? Where did u get 8 to 12? Liking what I'm hearing though.
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Post by aiannone on Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:25 pm

Looks like ugatz for LI lol
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Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:27 pm

TheAresian wrote:
rb924119 wrote:ARESIAN YOU GOT YOUR EARS ON, BUD????? HERE'S ONE SECS, WITH MULTIPLE MORE TO FOLLOW!!!!! IT'S ONLY THE THIRD QUARTER MY FRIEND, PICK YOUR TOWEL BACK UP AND WIPE YOUR FACE, BECAUSE WE GOT AN END GAME TO FINISH THIS SEASON!!!!!

I've got my ears on, but I'm cleaning and recleaning them because I'd swear I'm hearing you say that multiple SECS type storms are going to reach far enough inland to affect me. I'm in no way questioning your knowledge, but hearing it's even possible has me a bit taken aback.

Well obviously it's far from certain, BUT THIS IS WHY YOU CANNOT JUST SIMPLY WRITE THE REST OF THIS SEASON OFF. YOU HAVE TO TRUST THE PROCESS, NOT JUST BLINDLY FOLLOW MAPS. This is what so many of us have been stressing for several weeks now. Models are not gospel; there's so much more to forecasting than just looking at a map. This type of pattern is an atmospheric time bomb and the match has just been lit. Let the fuse be lit and let the process continue because models cannot handle the anomalies and the volume of intricacies of these types patterns like human intuition can. So when I say that there are "multiple chances at SECS", I MEAN IT, regardless of what the models show right now. As does every other met on here and elsewhere. Again, trust the process, my friend. Does it always work out in your back yard? No. But it at the very least GIVES YOU THE CHANCE.

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