Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

by **jmanley32** Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:42 am

sroc4 wrote:Personally I'm shifting my entire attention to where the 500mb cutoff tracks, as well as the 700 and 850 cuts off and tracks on the NAM, RGEM, Euro and Ukie. That will tell you who snows and when. GFS is absolutely useless with its lower level depiction of whats happening. With a 500mb, 700mb, and 850mb low in this position:

I'm sorry but this entire area is snowing; not rain like is being depicted. With the exception of where the upper level features are the GFS is usless to forecast the surface out come. Useless I tell you

so still a chance just outside of NYC or that's out? The very bottom of your circle does not include me and if so so be it but I'm hoping that changes. At this point some wild winds will kinda make me not too upset but if the lp goes right over us it swirls all around us except for the back end sat. So for coastal areas the chances of snow may not be till sat now?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:43 am

TheAresian wrote:The NWS has a Winter Storm Watch up for my area already. Given how complex everybody is saying this system is, are they jumping the gun a little?

You quit on winter and OTI and look at the results so far. You have to stick with that it's apparently working.

by Guest Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:45 am

Hey now. This system was in place before I did either of those. Ray brought the system with him when he came back from exile so it's his storm. All I'm doing is making it a little crazier.

by **billg315** Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:45 am

My thoughts at present are that the NAM is on targetin terms of temp profiles for change to snow. I think most everyone from central NJ north goes to snow Friday. What I don’t know is where the heaviest banding will be. Also don’t know how ground temps will affect accumulation if it’s not heavy. A lot to be determined on those fronts.

by **WeatherBob** Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:45 am

It is baby Godzilla, haha!

by **WeatherBob** Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:48 am

Sroc4 - I am all with you on your thoughts going forward. I will jump in a cold ocean if it rains on the backside of the low with how the GFS is depicting the upper levels. It’s gotta be snow there somewhere.

by **rb924119** Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:52 am

sroc4 wrote:Personally I'm shifting my entire attention to where the 500mb cutoff tracks, as well as the 700 and 850 cuts off and tracks on the NAM, RGEM, Euro and Ukie. That will tell you who snows and when. GFS is absolutely useless with its lower level depiction of whats happening. With a 500mb, 700mb, and 850mb low in this position:

I'm sorry but this entire area is snowing; not rain like is being depicted. With the exception of where the upper level features are the GFS is usless to forecast the surface out come. Useless I tell you

PREACH MY CHILD PREACHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! PREACH FOR ALL OF THE HEAVENLY HOST TO HEAR!!!!!!! Best deformation axes set up between 200-300 miles on the north and west sides of your H7 and H5 closed lows....................where is our area in relation to them on those maps?? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm........

We get H5 over the Delmarva and I am telling you, everybody north of I-78 snows, and I mean SNOWS. That's a 100 mile shift from where we sit right now. Chump change to the atmosphere. The only reason the EURO map from last night wasn't as pretty as 12z was because it trapped a TROWAL that reached far enough westward to get to NYC as the CCB band worked overhead. Otherwise, I think the evolution at H5 was far and away better than 12z.

by **hyde345** Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:02 am

sroc4 wrote:Personally I'm shifting my entire attention to where the 500mb cutoff tracks, as well as the 700 and 850 cuts off and tracks on the NAM, RGEM, Euro and Ukie. That will tell you who snows and when. GFS is absolutely useless with its lower level depiction of whats happening. With a 500mb, 700mb, and 850mb low in this position:

I'm sorry but this entire area is snowing; not rain like is being depicted. With the exception of where the upper level features are the GFS is usless to forecast the surface out come. Useless I tell you

I was just going to post that the HV especially north of 84 has to watch this closely for significant snowfall potential. The GFS is trash and most of the other models have us below 0 at 850 from Friday morning on with a northerly wind component. Thermal profiles are tricky but I believe that we are snowing from late morning thru afternoon. NWS is only saying 2 inches but that could change.

by **WeatherBob** Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:06 am

RB - I am not up to snuff on the inner workings of these models but why why does the GFS keep the lower levels of the atmosphere so warm? Rain up the Hudson valley to Canada? Doesn’t it recognize that it is forecasting a 979 low with a deepening potent upper level low barreling east in an awesome position for at least backside snow?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:25 am

sroc4 wrote:Personally I'm shifting my entire attention to where the 500mb cutoff tracks, as well as the 700 and 850 cuts off and tracks on the NAM, RGEM, Euro and Ukie. That will tell you who snows and when. GFS is absolutely useless with its lower level depiction of whats happening. With a 500mb, 700mb, and 850mb low in this position:

I'm sorry but this entire area is snowing; not rain like is being depicted. With the exception of where the upper level features are the GFS is usless to forecast the surface out come. Useless I tell you

Even to this untrained eye that looks way off.

by **rb924119** Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:25 am

WeatherBob wrote:RB - I am not up to snuff on the inner workings of these models but why why does the GFS keep the lower levels of the atmosphere so warm? Rain up the Hudson valley to Canada? Doesn’t it recognize that it is forecasting a 979 low with a deepening potent upper level low barreling east in an awesome position for at least backside snow?

I'd honestly be lying if I said I knew lmao aside from the statement that it is a horrible model, I cannot offer any further guidance on the topic ahaha

by **WeatherBob** Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:36 am

I got ya, I really wouldn’t call it horrible for the strength and position of the surface low and the strength and position of the upper level systems, it’s just the overall warmth of the lower levels of the atmosphere that I question. With all the dynamics it is showing us, it seems to be missing the cooling of the column to surface on the backside of the surface low.

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:37 am

rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Personally I'm shifting my entire attention to where the 500mb cutoff tracks, as well as the 700 and 850 cuts off and tracks on the NAM, RGEM, Euro and Ukie. That will tell you who snows and when. GFS is absolutely useless with its lower level depiction of whats happening. With a 500mb, 700mb, and 850mb low in this position:

I'm sorry but this entire area is snowing; not rain like is being depicted. With the exception of where the upper level features are the GFS is usless to forecast the surface out come. Useless I tell you

PREACH MY CHILD PREACHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! PREACH FOR ALL OF THE HEAVENLY HOST TO HEAR!!!!!!! Best deformation axes set up between 200-300 miles on the north and west sides of your H7 and H5 closed lows....................where is our area in relation to them on those maps?? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm........

We get H5 over the Delmarva and I am telling you, everybody north of I-78 snows, and I mean SNOWS. That's a 100 mile shift from where we sit right now. Chump change to the atmosphere. The only reason the EURO map from last night wasn't as pretty as 12z was because it trapped a TROWAL that reached far enough westward to get to NYC as the CCB band worked overhead. Otherwise, I think the evolution at H5 was far and away better than 12z.

awwww....we are 30 miles south of 1-78 Sad

by **rb924119** Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:44 am

I think you're still gonna see some snow, mom!!! Just not as much lol

by **aiannone** Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:58 am

rb924119 wrote:I think you're still gonna see some snow, mom!!! Just not as much lol

I have a hunch that NW people enjoy telling LI Folks that they are getting all rain lol

by **rb924119** Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:01 am

SREFs are ugly. Doesn't bode well for our 12z NAM. Gotta see.

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:04 am

Can someone do a write up on timing,qpf amounts,winds, and waves for coastal nj. I mean is this going to be a real powerful noreaster

by **sroc4** Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:11 am

TheAresian wrote:Hey now. This system was in place before I did either of those. Ray brought the system with him when he came back from exile so it's his storm. All I'm doing is making it a little crazier.

I am going to selfishly take a small piece of this storm and claim it as my own. geek

Although I was off by one day since it looks like this storm comes in on the 2nd. (I said Feb 26-29th so technically that's March 1st lol)

by sroc4 on Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:35 pm

Do not be surprised to actually see our first threat of snow to happen before we end Feb. Feb 26-29th. It may start with a cutter that sets up the 50/50 low around the 25th-27th followed by a Miller B type system shortly after

Here was the cutter cutting between the 25th and the 28th setting up the 50/50 low/ rex block (-NAO ridge N of the 50/50 low) for the up coming system to transfer off the coast as it runs into the block...ala Miller B fashion

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 11 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_5

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 11 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_5

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 11 Gfs_z500_vort_us_6

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 11 Rex10

by sroc4 on Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:52 am

...With such a block in place and a split flow Pac pattern I would argue that the combination of a HP in place to the N, and confluence to the NE thanks to Atlantic blocking, we can relatively speaking, fairly accurately predict that the mean track of any cutoff low that develops in the heart of the CONUS would be to meander west to east and be forced or funneled somewhere off the midatlantic/NE coast instead of cut up into the GL like say what the GFS tried to do at 6z. Obv the details are still highly volatile this far out, but again IMHO the pattern is such that there WILL BE a storm for the MidAtlantic and/or NE, but who see what is the debate. Now can I say with 100% certainty that we wont see a cutoff push N through the block? No. But the likely hood of it bouncing off the block to the N as it tries to cut and be forced off the NE coast is MUCH higher and releatively easily to predict given the pattern...

by **Grselig** Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:14 am

Hey, SROC - If its a nice hit for the entire area, you, RB and WeatherBob ought to share it. if not blame some loser on another site. Twisted Evil

by **rb924119** Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:16 am

Noticeable differences from 06z lmao unreal

by **rb924119** Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:18 am

Coastal taking shape much earlier. Interesting.......

by **sroc4** Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:19 am

Regarding the NAM the last few uns the northern energy has been slower and slower leading to a later phasing; however the southern energy conts to look fairly potent so its this southern energy that cuts off as the N energy then is allowed to catch up. The result of this is to have a much warmer system overall top to bottom because of its origin SW CONUS, with the N energy phasing in later. The air mass is too warm. If the N energy was faster and phased a little earlier it would wrap in colder air into the main upper level features earlier but force WAA tobe stronger out ahead. Or if the S energy was weaker and didn't cut off before it interacts with the N energy then less WAA and a colder soln overall as the N energy phases.

Bottom line if the N energy conts to trend slower and the S energy cuts itself off before it phases coast is def toast.

by **rb924119** Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:23 am

ANDDDDD HEREEEEEEE WEEEEEEE GOOOOOOOOOOO

by **sroc4** Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:23 am

sroc4 wrote:Regarding the NAM the last few uns the northern energy has been slower and slower leading to a later phasing; however the southern energy conts to look fairly potent so its this southern energy that cuts off as the N energy then is allowed to catch up. The result of this is to have a much warmer system overall top to bottom because of its origin SW CONUS, with the N energy phasing in later. The air mass is too warm. If the N energy was faster and phased a little earlier it would wrap in colder air into the main upper level features earlier but force WAA tobe stronger out ahead. Or if the S energy was weaker and didn't cut off before it interacts with the N energy then less WAA and a colder soln overall as the N energy phases.

Bottom line if the N energy conts to trend slower and the S energy cuts itself off before it phases coast is def toast.

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 11 Namcon11

by Guest Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:28 am

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Regarding the NAM the last few uns the northern energy has been slower and slower leading to a later phasing; however the southern energy conts to look fairly potent so its this southern energy that cuts off as the N energy then is allowed to catch up. The result of this is to have a much warmer system overall top to bottom because of its origin SW CONUS, with the N energy phasing in later. The air mass is too warm. If the N energy was faster and phased a little earlier it would wrap in colder air into the main upper level features earlier but force WAA tobe stronger out ahead. Or if the S energy was weaker and didn't cut off before it interacts with the N energy then less WAA and a colder soln overall as the N energy phases.

Bottom line if the N energy conts to trend slower and the S energy cuts itself off before it phases coast is def toast.

Scott. Correct me if I’m wrong but the winds seem to be coming from a northeasterly direction on this map?

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:28 am

rb924119 wrote:ANDDDDD HEREEEEEEE WEEEEEEE GOOOOOOOOOOO

where are we gooooooing...lol

by **rb924119** Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:31 am

THERE IT IS THERE IT IS THERE IT IS THERE IT IS!!!!!!!!!!

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