MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by billg315 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:19 am

The NAM continues to be the only model even close to making sense. So I continue to think it is closest to the actual solution here. This may not be a LI event sorry to say but most of New Jersey is going to do well here I think. It is interesting that the NAM has pushed back the timing of the changeover to snow. In runs earlier this week it showed New Jersey going to snow between 1 and 4 a.m. Now it looks like it doesn't go to snow until late morning - but continues heavy in the afternoon.
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by sroc4 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:23 am

500 on rgem looks like NAM.  Forget the thermal profile here.  While its likely rain at the start the main N energy comes off the coast around the Delmarva and is digging.  Love this look


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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by rb924119 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:25 am

sroc4 wrote:500 loks like NAM.  Forget the thermal profile here



Think this is even sexier than the NAM. Slightly further south with the closed low, and deeper. I won't use the "M" word, as that is reserved for special people on special occasions, but I think it's worthy of it lmao

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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by WeatherBob on Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:26 am

On that run, looks like NYC will be a battleground for 2 to 4 in or 6 to 8 inches. That will depend on how far the surface low actually retrogrades.
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by WeatherBob on Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:27 am

Wow RB, what dynamics!
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by rb924119 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:28 am

WeatherBob wrote:On that run, looks like NYC will be a battleground for 2 to 4 in or 6 to 8 inches.  That will depend on how far the surface low actually retrogrades.

NAM, or RGEM? RGEM would easily bring warning-criteria snows into the NYC metro.

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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by WeatherBob on Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:30 am

I was talking the NAM, this low has the potential to go to 970 mb I would think
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by WeatherBob on Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:36 am

You gotta love Delaware, when a potent upper system comes off the coast there, usually a good storm in our area, either being rain or snow!
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by WeatherBob on Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:41 am

I would think all the models agree that the upper level system will be coming off the southern Delaware coast somewhere, even the horrible GFS, RB
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by billg315 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:42 am

WeatherBob wrote:You gotta love Delaware, when a potent upper system comes off the coast there, usually a good storm in our area,  either being rain or snow!

Just as you've been pointing out the last couple days. That could be perfect placement for the upper low here.
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by billg315 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:49 am

Oh gfs. lol. for the love of all that is holy. Is it still chasing convection? Has the surface low way east, almost out to sea east of cape cod. Has the 850 temps below freezing but raining over NJ. Yet it does have the H5 low positioned right over the Delmarva at hour 51
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by rb924119 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:51 am

AND THE GFS CAVES PEEPS!!!!!! HUGEEEEEE CHANGES ALOFT AND AT THE LOWER LEVELS!!!! IT STILL AINT PERFECT BUT BY GOD IT LOOKS TO BE CAVING TO THE NAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by WeatherBob on Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:51 am

Yes billg, we will see if the models look similar on tmrw mornings run. In any event, I do feel more confident now that we will see some type of blizzard like conditions Fri afternoon and eve in Jersey and the LHV. The question will be just how much snow actually falls.
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by billg315 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:55 am

rb, I assume what you like about the GFS is the positioning of the H5 low (which looks good to me) and the upper level temps (which also have improved)? The surface level still seems a little messed up to me, but I'm trying to focus on the upper levels right now per you and Bob's guidance.
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by algae888 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:57 am

Well interesting model runs today especially from the nam. I don't think we're going to have a final solution until very close in. If you look at the 3K nam you will see that North Central New Jersey has a foot of snow with very little to its West and East. It's going to come down to where the heavy banding sets up where the low pressure system closes off anyone within 50 miles of the snow Maps put on today's models have a chance the other thing to note as was in that National Weather Service discussion this morning if it falls during the daylight in March marginal temperatures may be hard to stick and also this may be a case where it snows during heavier precipitation and rains when it lightens up.
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by WeatherBob on Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:59 am

Algae- good point!
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by WeatherBob on Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:06 am

Anyone have a GFS snow map?
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by billg315 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:07 am

algae888 wrote:Well interesting model runs today especially from the nam. I don't think we're going to have a final solution until very close in. If you look at the 3K nam you will see that North Central New Jersey has a foot of snow with very little to its West and East. It's going to come down to where the heavy banding sets up where the low pressure system closes off anyone within 50 miles of the snow Maps put on today's models have a chance the other thing to note as was in that National Weather Service discussion this morning if it falls during the daylight in March marginal temperatures may be hard to stick and also this may be a case where it snows during heavier precipitation and rains when it lightens up.

Excellent point. That was one reason I mentioned above the changeover time from rain to snow. If it is snowing before dawn I think it starts sticking more easily. But if it doesn't go to snow until midday, at this time of year it can be hard to get it to stick in daylight, unless its really heavy or the ground is really cold. The ground will not be really cold, soooo that could be a problem.
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by billg315 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:10 am

WeatherBob wrote:Anyone have a GFS snow map?

While showing nearly 2" of precipitation across the region, the gfs shows virtually no snow accumulation in this area. most accumulation in western New York.
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by WeatherBob on Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:11 am

It could be a real slop feast with heavy snow and wind but not a lot accumulation on the ground. It might get plastered to trees and buildings though. We will see.
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by frank 638 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:12 am

I hate to ask what about NYC in the Bronx area

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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by WeatherBob on Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:14 am

Well , all we need is surface temps to get to 33 or so and we will get something on the ground. NYC itself might only have wet roads with maybe 800 ft to 1000 ft skyscrapers getting snow on the tops.
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by sroc4 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:17 am

rb924119 wrote:AND THE GFS CAVES PEEPS!!!!!! HUGEEEEEE CHANGES ALOFT AND AT THE LOWER LEVELS!!!! IT STILL AINT PERFECT BUT BY GOD IT LOOKS TO BE CAVING TO THE NAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just had a chance to look. H5 looked phenomenal. I could careless at what the snow map looked like. Euro holds on the evolution of H5 like NAM Rgem and GFS everyone is still in business for something

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by WeatherBob on Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:19 am

Frank 638- this is still a fluid situation.  We have to wait till tmrw mornings model runs to pinpoint specifics better. This is not a standard winter storm with cold air advection, low coming from the south, upper level energy energizing it.  I think u get the picture.
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Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:20 am

GREAT read via @crankywxguy on Twitter (he's one of the best IMO) — we're in for a doozy of a storm, on many fronts:

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e022818.htm
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