NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

+27
frank 638
skinsfan1177
hyde345
dkodgis
Math23x7
Snow88
Carter bk
weatherwatchermom
amugs
RJB8525
bloc1357
Frank_Wx
aiannone
jmanley32
Scullybutcher
jimv45
algae888
nutleyblizzard
SoulSingMG
track17
CPcantmeasuresnow
billg315
WeatherBob
Grselig
Dunnzoo
rb924119
sroc4
31 posters

Page 16 of 16 Previous  1 ... 9 ... 14, 15, 16

Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:33 pm

sroc4 wrote:
WeatherBob wrote:Dare we mention the B word since there is no criteria for temps any more?

No no no not yet. I’m a superstitious man.

I can see you're getting your work done told ya told ya

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Join date : 2013-02-06

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:34 pm

rb924119 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:I'm at school to rb any think for us by the hook...I am just checking in....common storm  Central and the shore need to get in on action!!

As I said before, likely advisory-level snowfall, but not warning. So, probably 2-5"-ish I think would be fair. I'm sticking with my initial call from three days ago where from the Mason-Dixon to I-78 is up to advisory-criteria snow, and north of I-78 is warning. No reason to stray from that at this time.

Sorry I am so needy this week..lol

weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3716
Join date : 2014-11-25

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:43 pm

rb924119 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:I'm at school to rb any think for us by the hook...I am just checking in....common storm  Central and the shore need to get in on action!!

As I said before, likely advisory-level snowfall, but not warning. So, probably 2-5"-ish I think would be fair. I'm sticking with my initial call from three days ago where from the Mason-Dixon to I-78 is up to advisory-criteria snow, and north of I-78 is warning. No reason to stray from that at this time.
Great trends today with the 12z suite. Is it possible the good trends continue, i.e. jackpot snows in New York State move down into NY/NJ metro? What do we need to look for aloft for that to occur?
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by billg315 Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:47 pm

I was just going to lunch and I heard the forecast for Friday on a radio station that I will not name (but I will say the forecast was for NJ not NYC metro or LI). "Friday, rain with temps in the low-40s and gusty winds." That was it. Not a mention of snow. As I said last night, if things keep developing the way we think (and has now become the trend among most of the models) a lot of people are going to be caught off guard Friday.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by billg315 Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:50 pm

aiannone wrote:
sroc4 wrote:EURO!!!!!!!!   WWWOOOHHHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!


Give me some good news during my studying. Anything good for us on LI?

BACK TO THE BOOKS!!! lol
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by Guest Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:51 pm

sroc4 wrote:And you get snow!! and you get snow!, and you get snow!!!!

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 JNhU5Tt

These things don’t have any effect on me usually Scott, and I hate Oprah........but I literally just laughed out loud

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by Guest Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:52 pm

If I can squeeze out 4-6” on LI I will consider this a historic win

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by billg315 Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:59 pm

syosnow94 wrote:If I can squeeze out 4-6” on LI I will consider this a historic win

I'm hoping you boys out on LI get some good snow out of this because I much prefer it when the whole board gets in the fun. That being said, thinking back to earlier this winter when some people on here were cashing in on one-foot plus snows while I was struggling to squeak out a few inches in my backyard, and with winter's end fast approaching, I'm taking an every man for himself approach. Get me my snow and I'll worry about everyone else later. lol (akin to the George Carlin bit about a plane crash . . . I want to be the first person safely off the plane, that way I can call for help for everyone else). Very Happy
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by amugs Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:02 pm

WeatherBob wrote:Mugs- in a nut shell, what is Bernie saying about this storm?
bernie is saying the Upper Level LP will pass through ACsh and the snow will come down from EPA through NNJ and fringe NYC as well as HV - he feels HV and EPA and NWNJ gets 6-8"" plus with areas just east getting 3-6 possibly plus - he likes th HI RES models and Euro for this in step with the UKie - thins the GFS will come around but is out of its box with its solutions aka GOOD FOR SHIT!!!!.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by amugs Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:08 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
amugs wrote:Indies - not bad
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 130C084B-C244-48DE-A915-3CA6F362AE63.png.fddbf118f93b3e55d9033d73402c3f4c

Mugs you feeling ok?  Those panels are HORRENDOUS

I'm feeling fine and you? Please stop for gods sake, they aren't HORRENDOUS -- those indies are fine for an ens that is struggling Let the pattern dictate the outcome. It doesn't need to show pink/purple all over to be a win - the pattern has been a torch so this is fine and will be when all is said and done come Friday night.


PS - we have swat, state police and sheriff dept here since 6:30AM as well as local PD's. There was a threat against a student so the attention - and an unplanned fire alarm to top it off during lunch.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by jimv45 Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:11 pm

I will take 6-8 plus Bernie is very good at these type of storms like the people on here!! I wonder when the so called experts will start to talk about the snow chances we may have because if we get that wind and 6-8 plus big trouble!!

jimv45
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1168
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Hopewell jct.

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by amugs Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:11 pm

Again the top analogs I am using are
Dec25th 2002 - remember
October 2? 2011 storms - but its March climo is colder

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by aiannone Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:12 pm

billg315 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
sroc4 wrote:EURO!!!!!!!!   WWWOOOHHHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!


Give me some good news during my studying. Anything good for us on LI?

BACK TO THE BOOKS!!! lol

I check in every bit on breaks! JEEEEZ lol!!! hahaha

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by Guest Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:12 pm

Puts the snow in perspective

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by amugs Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:14 pm

HOLY SHT EPS JUST DROPPED THE MIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 5a96feded1881.thumb.png.f05a9e892b65d31719e20318a0789b93


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by billg315 Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:16 pm

aiannone wrote:
billg315 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
sroc4 wrote:EURO!!!!!!!!   WWWOOOHHHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!


Give me some good news during my studying. Anything good for us on LI?

BACK TO THE BOOKS!!! lol

I check in every bit on breaks! JEEEEZ lol!!! hahaha

haha. Just trying to keep you focused. Laughing
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by amugs Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:22 pm

Here's the loop WOW!!!!!!!
Compliments of CCB
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Index.gif.293890de3298861df30f97691434f029


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:29 pm

amugs wrote:
WeatherBob wrote:Mugs- in a nut shell, what is Bernie saying about this storm?
bernie is saying the Upper Level LP will pass through ACsh and the snow will come down from EPA through NNJ and fringe NYC as well as HV - he feels HV and EPA and NWNJ gets 6-8"" plus with areas just east getting 3-6 possibly plus - he likes th HI RES models and Euro for this in step with the UKie - thins the GFS will come around but is out of its box with its solutions aka GOOD FOR SHIT!!!!.

I gotta say, and excuse the banter-ish post though I feel it's pertinent to this storm as well, that the GFS is arguably the WORST model guidance we have. It's never right! It underperforms constantly with QPF, winds etc and I can't remember the last time it nailed a storm track. My favorite model? The NAM. In the past, I'd say 2 years, it's caught on to last-minute, BIG storm implications. I get tired of seeing METS live and die by the GooFuS. Anyway, rant over. This storm will be another loss for that model. Onto the 18z's! Very Happy
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:36 pm

EPS 12z TWO DAYS AGO:

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Eps_sn14
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Eps_sn15


12z Yesterday:


MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Eps_sn17
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Eps_sn16


12z TODAY: Thats a trend

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Eps_sn18
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Eps_sn19

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by WeatherBob Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:42 pm

Soul - the GFS was persistent in bringing the 500 mb cut off low off the Delaware coast and strengthening it. I was just really looking at that.
WeatherBob
WeatherBob
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 683
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2013-12-13
Location : Caldwell, NJ - NW Essex County - Altitude 500 FT

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by amugs Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:42 pm

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 DXJDIX-VAAEj9iU

Blending EURO and GFS and nothing else
Sorry dont buy this

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:42 pm

Hurricane Hunters are being sent into the system tomorrow!
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by WeatherBob Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:48 pm

Mugs, that map is pretty much a non snow event everywhere!
WeatherBob
WeatherBob
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 683
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2013-12-13
Location : Caldwell, NJ - NW Essex County - Altitude 500 FT

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by jimv45 Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:53 pm

Weather service in Albany has a flood watch for me with 1-2 inches of rain not buying the snow part, have they looked at the trends today or just sleeping? will see.

jimv45
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1168
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Hopewell jct.

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:57 pm

WeatherBob wrote:Mugs, that map is pretty much a non snow event everywhere!

The individual who produced that map insisted that winter weather was over 2 weeks ago; that snow chances were gone. He is a stubborn man and in all likely hood bust hard if trends persist. I cant say it wont verify yet, but I would not bet on this map pretty much area wide.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:02 pm

New thread up for 18z/00z runs bananadude

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21301
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Empty Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 16 of 16 Previous  1 ... 9 ... 14, 15, 16

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum