MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Page 16 of 16 Previous  1 ... 9 ... 14, 15, 16

Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:43 pm

rb924119 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:I'm at school to rb any think for us by the hook...I am just checking in....common storm  Central and the shore need to get in on action!!

As I said before, likely advisory-level snowfall, but not warning. So, probably 2-5"-ish I think would be fair. I'm sticking with my initial call from three days ago where from the Mason-Dixon to I-78 is up to advisory-criteria snow, and north of I-78 is warning. No reason to stray from that at this time.
Great trends today with the 12z suite. Is it possible the good trends continue, i.e. jackpot snows in New York State move down into NY/NJ metro? What do we need to look for aloft for that to occur?
avatar
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1442
Reputation : 31
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 52
Location : Nutley, new jersey

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by billg315 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:47 pm

I was just going to lunch and I heard the forecast for Friday on a radio station that I will not name (but I will say the forecast was for NJ not NYC metro or LI). "Friday, rain with temps in the low-40s and gusty winds." That was it. Not a mention of snow. As I said last night, if things keep developing the way we think (and has now become the trend among most of the models) a lot of people are going to be caught off guard Friday.
avatar
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2217
Reputation : 114
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by billg315 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:50 pm

aiannone wrote:
sroc4 wrote:EURO!!!!!!!!   WWWOOOHHHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!


Give me some good news during my studying. Anything good for us on LI?

BACK TO THE BOOKS!!! lol
avatar
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2217
Reputation : 114
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:51 pm

sroc4 wrote:And you get snow!! and you get snow!, and you get snow!!!!


These things don’t have any effect on me usually Scott, and I hate Oprah........but I literally just laughed out loud
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3614
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:52 pm

If I can squeeze out 4-6” on LI I will consider this a historic win
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3614
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by billg315 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:59 pm

syosnow94 wrote:If I can squeeze out 4-6” on LI I will consider this a historic win

I'm hoping you boys out on LI get some good snow out of this because I much prefer it when the whole board gets in the fun. That being said, thinking back to earlier this winter when some people on here were cashing in on one-foot plus snows while I was struggling to squeak out a few inches in my backyard, and with winter's end fast approaching, I'm taking an every man for himself approach. Get me my snow and I'll worry about everyone else later. lol (akin to the George Carlin bit about a plane crash . . . I want to be the first person safely off the plane, that way I can call for help for everyone else). Very Happy
avatar
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2217
Reputation : 114
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by amugs on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:02 pm

WeatherBob wrote:Mugs- in a nut shell, what is Bernie saying about this storm?
bernie is saying the Upper Level LP will pass through ACsh and the snow will come down from EPA through NNJ and fringe NYC as well as HV - he feels HV and EPA and NWNJ gets 6-8"" plus with areas just east getting 3-6 possibly plus - he likes th HI RES models and Euro for this in step with the UKie - thins the GFS will come around but is out of its box with its solutions aka GOOD FOR SHIT!!!!.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9563
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by amugs on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:08 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
amugs wrote:Indies - not bad

Mugs you feeling ok?  Those panels are HORRENDOUS

I'm feeling fine and you? Please stop for gods sake, they aren't HORRENDOUS -- those indies are fine for an ens that is struggling Let the pattern dictate the outcome. It doesn't need to show pink/purple all over to be a win - the pattern has been a torch so this is fine and will be when all is said and done come Friday night.


PS - we have swat, state police and sheriff dept here since 6:30AM as well as local PD's. There was a threat against a student so the attention - and an unplanned fire alarm to top it off during lunch.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9563
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by jimv45 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:11 pm

I will take 6-8 plus Bernie is very good at these type of storms like the people on here!! I wonder when the so called experts will start to talk about the snow chances we may have because if we get that wind and 6-8 plus big trouble!!

jimv45
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 972
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : dutchess county ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by amugs on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:11 pm

Again the top analogs I am using are
Dec25th 2002 - remember
October 2? 2011 storms - but its March climo is colder

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9563
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by aiannone on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:12 pm

billg315 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
sroc4 wrote:EURO!!!!!!!!   WWWOOOHHHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!


Give me some good news during my studying. Anything good for us on LI?

BACK TO THE BOOKS!!! lol

I check in every bit on breaks! JEEEEZ lol!!! hahaha
avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3533
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:12 pm

Puts the snow in perspective
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3614
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by amugs on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:14 pm

HOLY SHT EPS JUST DROPPED THE MIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9563
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by billg315 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:16 pm

aiannone wrote:
billg315 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
sroc4 wrote:EURO!!!!!!!!   WWWOOOHHHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!


Give me some good news during my studying. Anything good for us on LI?

BACK TO THE BOOKS!!! lol

I check in every bit on breaks! JEEEEZ lol!!! hahaha

haha. Just trying to keep you focused. Laughing
avatar
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2217
Reputation : 114
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by amugs on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:22 pm

Here's the loop WOW!!!!!!!
Compliments of CCB



_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9563
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:29 pm

amugs wrote:
WeatherBob wrote:Mugs- in a nut shell, what is Bernie saying about this storm?
bernie is saying the Upper Level LP will pass through ACsh and the snow will come down from EPA through NNJ and fringe NYC as well as HV - he feels HV and EPA and NWNJ gets 6-8"" plus with areas just east getting 3-6 possibly plus - he likes th HI RES models and Euro for this in step with the UKie - thins the GFS will come around but is out of its box with its solutions aka GOOD FOR SHIT!!!!.

I gotta say, and excuse the banter-ish post though I feel it's pertinent to this storm as well, that the GFS is arguably the WORST model guidance we have. It's never right! It underperforms constantly with QPF, winds etc and I can't remember the last time it nailed a storm track. My favorite model? The NAM. In the past, I'd say 2 years, it's caught on to last-minute, BIG storm implications. I get tired of seeing METS live and die by the GooFuS. Anyway, rant over. This storm will be another loss for that model. Onto the 18z's! Very Happy
avatar
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2476
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by sroc4 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:36 pm

EPS 12z TWO DAYS AGO:





12z Yesterday:






12z TODAY: Thats a trend



_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5800
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by WeatherBob on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:42 pm

Soul - the GFS was persistent in bringing the 500 mb cut off low off the Delaware coast and strengthening it. I was just really looking at that.
avatar
WeatherBob
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 531
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2013-12-13
Location : Caldwell, NJ - NW Essex County - Altitude 480 ft

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by amugs on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:42 pm



Blending EURO and GFS and nothing else
Sorry dont buy this

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9563
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:42 pm

Hurricane Hunters are being sent into the system tomorrow!
avatar
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2476
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by WeatherBob on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:48 pm

Mugs, that map is pretty much a non snow event everywhere!
avatar
WeatherBob
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 531
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2013-12-13
Location : Caldwell, NJ - NW Essex County - Altitude 480 ft

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by jimv45 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:53 pm

Weather service in Albany has a flood watch for me with 1-2 inches of rain not buying the snow part, have they looked at the trends today or just sleeping? will see.

jimv45
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 972
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : dutchess county ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by sroc4 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:57 pm

WeatherBob wrote:Mugs, that map is pretty much a non snow event everywhere!

The individual who produced that map insisted that winter weather was over 2 weeks ago; that snow chances were gone. He is a stubborn man and in all likely hood bust hard if trends persist. I cant say it wont verify yet, but I would not bet on this map pretty much area wide.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5800
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:02 pm

New thread up for 18z/00z runs bananadude

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18243
Reputation : 245
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 26
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 16 of 16 Previous  1 ... 9 ... 14, 15, 16

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum