MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:43 pm

rb924119 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:I'm at school to rb any think for us by the hook...I am just checking in....common storm  Central and the shore need to get in on action!!

As I said before, likely advisory-level snowfall, but not warning. So, probably 2-5"-ish I think would be fair. I'm sticking with my initial call from three days ago where from the Mason-Dixon to I-78 is up to advisory-criteria snow, and north of I-78 is warning. No reason to stray from that at this time.
Great trends today with the 12z suite. Is it possible the good trends continue, i.e. jackpot snows in New York State move down into NY/NJ metro? What do we need to look for aloft for that to occur?
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Post by billg315 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:47 pm

I was just going to lunch and I heard the forecast for Friday on a radio station that I will not name (but I will say the forecast was for NJ not NYC metro or LI). "Friday, rain with temps in the low-40s and gusty winds." That was it. Not a mention of snow. As I said last night, if things keep developing the way we think (and has now become the trend among most of the models) a lot of people are going to be caught off guard Friday.
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Post by billg315 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:50 pm

aiannone wrote:
sroc4 wrote:EURO!!!!!!!!   WWWOOOHHHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!


Give me some good news during my studying. Anything good for us on LI?

BACK TO THE BOOKS!!! lol
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Post by Guest on Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:51 pm

sroc4 wrote:And you get snow!! and you get snow!, and you get snow!!!!

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 JNhU5Tt

These things don’t have any effect on me usually Scott, and I hate Oprah........but I literally just laughed out loud

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Post by Guest on Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:52 pm

If I can squeeze out 4-6” on LI I will consider this a historic win

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Post by billg315 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:59 pm

syosnow94 wrote:If I can squeeze out 4-6” on LI I will consider this a historic win

I'm hoping you boys out on LI get some good snow out of this because I much prefer it when the whole board gets in the fun. That being said, thinking back to earlier this winter when some people on here were cashing in on one-foot plus snows while I was struggling to squeak out a few inches in my backyard, and with winter's end fast approaching, I'm taking an every man for himself approach. Get me my snow and I'll worry about everyone else later. lol (akin to the George Carlin bit about a plane crash . . . I want to be the first person safely off the plane, that way I can call for help for everyone else). Very Happy
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Post by amugs on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:02 pm

WeatherBob wrote:Mugs- in a nut shell, what is Bernie saying about this storm?
bernie is saying the Upper Level LP will pass through ACsh and the snow will come down from EPA through NNJ and fringe NYC as well as HV - he feels HV and EPA and NWNJ gets 6-8"" plus with areas just east getting 3-6 possibly plus - he likes th HI RES models and Euro for this in step with the UKie - thins the GFS will come around but is out of its box with its solutions aka GOOD FOR SHIT!!!!.

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Post by amugs on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:08 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
amugs wrote:Indies - not bad
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 130C084B-C244-48DE-A915-3CA6F362AE63.png.fddbf118f93b3e55d9033d73402c3f4c

Mugs you feeling ok?  Those panels are HORRENDOUS

I'm feeling fine and you? Please stop for gods sake, they aren't HORRENDOUS -- those indies are fine for an ens that is struggling Let the pattern dictate the outcome. It doesn't need to show pink/purple all over to be a win - the pattern has been a torch so this is fine and will be when all is said and done come Friday night.


PS - we have swat, state police and sheriff dept here since 6:30AM as well as local PD's. There was a threat against a student so the attention - and an unplanned fire alarm to top it off during lunch.

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Post by jimv45 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:11 pm

I will take 6-8 plus Bernie is very good at these type of storms like the people on here!! I wonder when the so called experts will start to talk about the snow chances we may have because if we get that wind and 6-8 plus big trouble!!

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Post by amugs on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:11 pm

Again the top analogs I am using are
Dec25th 2002 - remember
October 2? 2011 storms - but its March climo is colder

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Post by aiannone on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:12 pm

billg315 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
sroc4 wrote:EURO!!!!!!!!   WWWOOOHHHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!


Give me some good news during my studying. Anything good for us on LI?

BACK TO THE BOOKS!!! lol

I check in every bit on breaks! JEEEEZ lol!!! hahaha
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Post by Guest on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:12 pm

Puts the snow in perspective

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Post by amugs on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:14 pm

HOLY SHT EPS JUST DROPPED THE MIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 5a96feded1881.thumb.png.f05a9e892b65d31719e20318a0789b93


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Post by billg315 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:16 pm

aiannone wrote:
billg315 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
sroc4 wrote:EURO!!!!!!!!   WWWOOOHHHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!


Give me some good news during my studying. Anything good for us on LI?

BACK TO THE BOOKS!!! lol

I check in every bit on breaks! JEEEEZ lol!!! hahaha

haha. Just trying to keep you focused. Laughing
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Post by amugs on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:22 pm

Here's the loop WOW!!!!!!!
Compliments of CCB
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Index.gif.293890de3298861df30f97691434f029


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Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:29 pm

amugs wrote:
WeatherBob wrote:Mugs- in a nut shell, what is Bernie saying about this storm?
bernie is saying the Upper Level LP will pass through ACsh and the snow will come down from EPA through NNJ and fringe NYC as well as HV - he feels HV and EPA and NWNJ gets 6-8"" plus with areas just east getting 3-6 possibly plus - he likes th HI RES models and Euro for this in step with the UKie - thins the GFS will come around but is out of its box with its solutions aka GOOD FOR SHIT!!!!.

I gotta say, and excuse the banter-ish post though I feel it's pertinent to this storm as well, that the GFS is arguably the WORST model guidance we have. It's never right! It underperforms constantly with QPF, winds etc and I can't remember the last time it nailed a storm track. My favorite model? The NAM. In the past, I'd say 2 years, it's caught on to last-minute, BIG storm implications. I get tired of seeing METS live and die by the GooFuS. Anyway, rant over. This storm will be another loss for that model. Onto the 18z's! Very Happy
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Post by sroc4 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:36 pm

EPS 12z TWO DAYS AGO:

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Eps_sn14
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Eps_sn15


12z Yesterday:


MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Eps_sn17

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Eps_sn16


12z TODAY: Thats a trend

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Eps_sn18
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 Eps_sn19

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
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WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS Trace (First snow Nov 12th)
November 12th = trace
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Post by WeatherBob on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:42 pm

Soul - the GFS was persistent in bringing the 500 mb cut off low off the Delaware coast and strengthening it. I was just really looking at that.
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Post by amugs on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:42 pm

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 16 DXJDIX-VAAEj9iU

Blending EURO and GFS and nothing else
Sorry dont buy this

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Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:42 pm

Hurricane Hunters are being sent into the system tomorrow!
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Post by WeatherBob on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:48 pm

Mugs, that map is pretty much a non snow event everywhere!
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Post by jimv45 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:53 pm

Weather service in Albany has a flood watch for me with 1-2 inches of rain not buying the snow part, have they looked at the trends today or just sleeping? will see.

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Post by sroc4 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:57 pm

WeatherBob wrote:Mugs, that map is pretty much a non snow event everywhere!

The individual who produced that map insisted that winter weather was over 2 weeks ago; that snow chances were gone. He is a stubborn man and in all likely hood bust hard if trends persist. I cant say it wont verify yet, but I would not bet on this map pretty much area wide.

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS Trace (First snow Nov 12th)
November 12th = trace
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Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:02 pm

New thread up for 18z/00z runs bananadude

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2017-2018: 35"

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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
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