MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:28 pm

aiannone wrote:Looks like ugatz for LI lol

Only if you take snow map verbatim Alex. Remember its an ensemble in. Not the best resolution. Every single member has the MSLP between 970-988mb. There are a few in the 960's. Tranfer comes off the Delmarva and passes south of LI

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:28 pm

sroc4 wrote:EPS MSLP transfer, placement and intensity looks great!

MUSIC. TO. MY. EARS.

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Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:29 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Rb what do einds look like on 12z euro? It looks more like 3 to 6 NYC no? Where did u get 8 to 12? Liking what I'm hearing though.

Aw shoot, Jman!! Totally meant to post those for you and I forgot lol coming up!!

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:32 pm

Some heavy hitters in there.

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl13
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl14
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl15
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl16
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl17
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl18
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl19

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by sroc4 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:35 pm

sroc4 wrote:Some heavy hitters in there.  

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl13
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl14
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl15
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl16
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl17
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl18
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl19


Vs the EPS mean from 12z two days ago.


MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl20
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl21
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl22
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl23
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl24
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl25
MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Eps_sl26

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by billg315 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:38 pm

aiannone wrote:Looks like ugatz for LI lol

I wouldn't say that. Last night two NAM runs had LI going over to snow. If the secondary sets up shop just S and E of LI and bombs out, it could definitely pull in enough cold air, especially at the upper levels to produce snow over Long Island.

That said I do remember well a couple storms earlier this year where LI cashed in and us folks further west got a little bit of the shaft. Soooo, sometimes things even out. lol. Anyway, I hear someone out there has a big exam to study for, so if it has to miss you -- maybe this isn't the worst one to have miss. Wink
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Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:40 pm

Here you go Jman:

EURO 900 hPa sustained wind speeds, in knots, for the windiest frame. Since this is 900 hPa and on the northwestern side where we get our wind events to mix down to the surface, I would say 90% of this mixes down, maybe close to 100% AT TIMES:

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Screen22

Keep in mind, this has a lot of westward correction to undergo at the lower levels, so in theory, these should go up, though by how much, I cannot say.

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Post by billg315 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:02 pm

Ok, time to whip the NAM back into line after its early morning tantrum. lol. Lets go 18z.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:05 pm

rb924119 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:omg the EURO just changed the game, piggybacking on the UKMET!
Snow map please.

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Screen21

This is the second time the euro has drawn a snow map, the first time was about four days ago, with the rain snow line for this storm, that looks identical to the February 25 26th 2010 storm. Identical of course if you took the snow amounts and times them by three. I know you said the dynamics are not even close between the two and I believe you, but that is one part of this threat that I still find interesting.
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Post by aiannone on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:06 pm

billg315 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Looks like ugatz for LI lol

I wouldn't say that. Last night two NAM runs had LI going over to snow. If the secondary sets up shop just S and E of LI and bombs out, it could definitely pull in enough cold air, especially at the upper levels to produce snow over Long Island.

That said I do remember well a couple storms earlier this year where LI cashed in and us folks further west got a little bit of the shaft. Soooo, sometimes things even out. lol. Anyway, I hear someone out there has a big exam to study for, so if it has to miss you -- maybe this isn't the worst one to have miss. Wink

SHHHHHH lol. I'll take it as long as it's gone by saturday morning!
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Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:12 pm

Bernie RAIN-O Shocked

"The focus for snow Fri is not with the sfc low,it's with the placement/strength of the upper low. With the exception of the higher terrain in NY/PA this will be mostly rain. How, just N of the upper low there will be a band of heavy,wet snow.ECMWF 500 mb fri am."
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Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:20 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie RAIN-O Shocked

"The focus for snow Fri is not with the sfc low,it's with the placement/strength of the upper low. With the exception of the higher terrain in NY/PA this will be mostly rain. How, just N of the upper low there will be a band of heavy,wet snow.ECMWF 500 mb fri am."

I don't disagree with this. If you recall, somebody had asked me earlier about the coastal plain, and I felt that the ceiling ratio of snow versus rain was 50-50. 50% rain on the front end that goes to the final 50% of precipitation in the form of snow on the back end. I also said that the overall QPF would be much more than 1", with in excess of 2" probable. Given the max 50-50 ratio of rain versus snow, you just saw the results on the EURO. So while it may technically be "mostly rain" by amounts, that doesn't mean that a significant snowfall should be written off, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-78. Also, it is the H5 energy that holds the key for the snow part of it, but the placement, intensity, and timing of the secondary development will help dictate how soon the change can occur in relation to the positioning of the H5 energy. The stronger and earlier that secondary develops, the faster the lower levels will cool in advance of the brunt mid-level dynamics, thus allowing more QPF to fall as snow and start the pre-accumulation processes earlier (cooling the column at the lower levels, cooling the ground, etc.).


Last edited by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:23 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jimv45 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:21 pm

Yea when Bernie talks I listen, he is very good like the people on this site!! Will see.

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Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:25 pm

I think we may see another big NAM run here. H5 looks like 06z again. We'll see.

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Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:35 pm

Too much interaction too soon on this run. Dang. Still a ton of volatility to this system, though, and it could be an over correction to start swinging the other way again. Gonna still see how this run plays out though.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:39 pm

Late to the party...

This seems to come down to the primary low. If this low cuts north it will warm our mid-levels so by the time the secondary takes over we have to wait for cold air to spread into the mid and lower levels. Whereas, a primary that does not cut will leave many people seeing an all snow or brief rain to all snow event.


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Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:41 pm

OMG THE NAM STILL GOES NUCLEAR!!!!! CCB BANDING FOR THE WIN!!!!!!

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Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:41 pm

18z NAM

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 5a95c28aa7ba4

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Post by billg315 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:47 pm

Welcome back NAM. Hope you got that 12z stuff out of your system this morning. lol
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Post by rb924119 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:49 pm

WHERE YOU AT CP???? NAM SHOWS YOU 20" OF LOVE BUDDY!!!!!!!!!

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Post by jimv45 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:52 pm

looks like the Hudson valley might do well.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:52 pm

rb924119 wrote:WHERE YOU AT CP???? NAM SHOWS YOU 20" OF LOVE BUDDY!!!!!!!!!

I must see maps.

I'm a little distracted on OTI today, some weird goings on there.
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Post by billg315 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:53 pm

rb924119 wrote:WHERE YOU AT CP???? NAM SHOWS YOU 20" OF LOVE BUDDY!!!!!!!!!

rb, if this pans out the way we've been thinking since yesterday on the Long Range you will be long heralded as one of the first to preach it. I just want credit as one of your primary disciples. lol
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:56 pm

rb924119 wrote:Here you go Jman:

EURO 900 hPa sustained wind speeds, in knots, for the windiest frame. Since this is 900 hPa and on the northwestern side where we get our wind events to mix down to the surface, I would say 90% of this mixes down, maybe close to 100% AT TIMES:

MARCH 2nd-3rd 2018 Complex set up - Page 3 Screen22

Keep in mind, this has a lot of westward correction to undergo at the lower levels, so in theory, these should go up, though by how much, I cannot say.
do you have the gust map for surface? Lol. Jeeze those are sustained 50 mph wow could we serioysly possibly see hurricane gusts?
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Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:57 pm

lmao Basketball

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