March 2nd Nor'easter Update

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Post by rb924119 on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:07 pm

Definitely getting the wind here now, though. Think I'm gonna bring my husky with me on my way to work just in case, mike Wink Wink

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Post by docstox12 on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:09 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Am I wrong, or has that 'eye' not moved a lick in over 2 hours...

You are right, and it looks to me on the loop on Accuweather the precip shield has moved south and a little west.I'm thinking that's the retrograde movement.
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Post by billg315 on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:11 pm

rb predicted:
-Snow south to the Mason Dixon (check)
- Blizzard-like conditions in some areas (check)
- Accumulating warning criteria snow north of I-78 (check - in many areas)
- Snow reaching the coastal areas (check)

For a storm where up until Wednesday night (and even Thursday morning) many were saying would be pretty much all rain, I'd say that's a good report card.
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Post by Math23x7 on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:14 pm

In Manhattan where it is mainly rain. Tired Mad GFS Model Tired Mad

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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:16 pm

Same spot. Note increase in-depth. March 2nd Nor'easter Update - Page 6 699f0d10

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Post by DAYBLAZER on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:17 pm

Okay settled everything I could today for the insurance BS. I've decided to start drinking now and enjoy this storm.

Here in Hopatcong visibility is down to a few hundred feet at best and the winds are howling. Heavy snow and tree limbs down everywhere. Somehow we still have power. If you stop hearing from me you know why haha.
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Post by SENJsnowman on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:18 pm

billg315 wrote:rb predicted:
-Snow south to the Mason Dixon (check)
- Blizzard-like conditions in some areas (check)
- Accumulating warning criteria snow north of I-78 (check - in many areas)
- Snow reaching the coastal areas (check)

For a storm where up until Wednesday night (and even Thursday morning) many were saying would be pretty much all rain, I'd say that's a good report card.

And you right there with him every step of the way, pointing out the discrepancies between the upper level data and the model outputs.

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:22 pm

rb924119 wrote:Definitely getting the wind here now, though. Think I'm gonna bring my husky with me on my way to work just in case, mike Wink Wink
rb no shortage of winds 23k without power in coned atea. But will we get any snow? I was so hopeful when it started but been rain for hours.
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Post by DAYBLAZER on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:23 pm

Yeah hats off RB...I should have listened to you more and not gone to work in the first place! Can't believe how bad it got up here.

My face for the past hour pretty much matches my avatar right now

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:24 pm

Radar showing snow back into CT that warm tongue gone Yonkers under blue it's start switch again 37 degrees. I'm hoping as we get to dark it sticks. Looks like it's not moving out fast at all
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Post by docstox12 on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:24 pm

DAYBLAZER wrote:Okay settled everything I could today for the insurance BS. I've decided to start drinking now and enjoy this storm.

Here in Hopatcong visibility is down to a few hundred feet at best and the winds are howling. Heavy snow and tree limbs down everywhere. Somehow we still have power. If you stop hearing from me you know why haha.

Will that be because the power went out or stupification from drinking,LOL.

Seriously, I'm happy nobody was injured and all is settled.Same up here, high winds, heavy snow!
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Post by rb924119 on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:24 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Definitely getting the wind here now, though. Think I'm gonna bring my husky with me on my way to work just in case, mike Wink Wink
rb no shortage of winds 23k without power in coned atea. But will we get any snow? I was so hopeful when it started but been rain for hours.

I think you should as the deformation axis starts shifting east. Right now you are right on the periphery of it, but once it shifts overhead you should go to snow. How much accumulation, I can't say, though.

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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:26 pm

Forecast for 2’ from NWS here is reality. 1400’. Due North if Doc and CP in Ulster county. Elevation over 1000’. WTF?March 2nd Nor'easter Update - Page 6 Bc0a7110

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Post by SENJsnowman on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:26 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Definitely getting the wind here now, though. Think I'm gonna bring my husky with me on my way to work just in case, mike Wink Wink
rb no shortage of winds 23k without power in coned atea. But will we get any snow? I was so hopeful when it started but been rain for hours.

From the radar, looks a total hose job for the city. Just a no snow zone. Could it be the urban heat is just enough to keep it rain?

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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:27 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
billg315 wrote:rb predicted:
-Snow south to the Mason Dixon (check)
- Blizzard-like conditions in some areas (check)
- Accumulating warning criteria snow north of I-78 (check - in many areas)
- Snow reaching the coastal areas (check)

For a storm where up until Wednesday night (and even Thursday morning) many were saying would be pretty much all rain, I'd say that's a good report card.

And you right there with him every step of the way, pointing out the discrepancies between the upper level data and the model outputs.

Yes. Great job by RV. But in most areas my map verified much better than both him and Franks. Should I post it again?

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Post by docstox12 on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:28 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:
billg315 wrote:rb predicted:
-Snow south to the Mason Dixon (check)
- Blizzard-like conditions in some areas (check)
- Accumulating warning criteria snow north of I-78 (check - in many areas)
- Snow reaching the coastal areas (check)

For a storm where up until Wednesday night (and even Thursday morning) many were saying would be pretty much all rain, I'd say that's a good report card.

And you right there with him every step of the way, pointing out the discrepancies between the upper level data and the model outputs.

Yes. Great job by RV. But in most areas my map verified much better than both him and Franks. Should I post it again?

Before you do send it to CP via PM.
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Post by billg315 on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:29 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
billg315 wrote:rb predicted:
-Snow south to the Mason Dixon (check)
- Blizzard-like conditions in some areas (check)
- Accumulating warning criteria snow north of I-78 (check - in many areas)
- Snow reaching the coastal areas (check)

For a storm where up until Wednesday night (and even Thursday morning) many were saying would be pretty much all rain, I'd say that's a good report card.

And you right there with him every step of the way, pointing out the discrepancies between the upper level data and the model outputs.

Thank you I appreciate it.
This was really one of the first times I strongly took issue with what I was seeing on the models at the surface, decided it wasn't making any sense, and really threw myself into digging deeper into what was really going on and not just defaulting to "well the models must be seeing something I'm missing, so guess they're right". With much guidance from rb, WeatherBob, sroc and borrowing from many others I've followed on here over the years (Frank, Al, Mugs and others who I'm sorry I probably have left out) I really tried to make an effort this time to dig into the upper level data and figure out what was really going on and then form my own opinion from it. While rb was really on this from the get-go so he deserves the props (and our LR guys sniffed this out awhile ago as well) it has been rewarding to dig a little deeper -- and have that digging validated to a large degree today. Even when some people I was trying to explain this to (not on here) thought I had no idea what I was talking about ("It's 60 degrees Bill and all the TV guys say its going to be rain, what are you talking about?" lol). This has been a fun ride this week.
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Post by DAYBLAZER on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:30 pm

docstox12 wrote:Will that be because the power went out or stupification from drinking,LOL.

Seriously, I'm happy nobody was injured and all is settled.Same up here, high winds, heavy snow!

Thanks man. Glad to hear you're cashing in as well! And no stupification YET, just easing into it with a beer Ive been saving for a couple of months here waiting for a special occasion. Founders CBS for those playing at home.

Back to the weather-- I'm going to attempt to take an accurate measurement of snow for you guys in a bit. It's going to be tough as most of doors are piled up with snow and there is drifting everywhere but I'll do my best. Right now I can tell you for sure we have cleared 10 inches of snow easily here.
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Post by SENJsnowman on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:30 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:
billg315 wrote:rb predicted:
-Snow south to the Mason Dixon (check)
- Blizzard-like conditions in some areas (check)
- Accumulating warning criteria snow north of I-78 (check - in many areas)
- Snow reaching the coastal areas (check)

For a storm where up until Wednesday night (and even Thursday morning) many were saying would be pretty much all rain, I'd say that's a good report card.

And you right there with him every step of the way, pointing out the discrepancies between the upper level data and the model outputs.

Yes. Great job by RV. But in most areas my map verified much better than both him and Franks. Should I post it again?

I'd rather not be a party to an actual re-posting...but I will say that from what I recall of your memorable map, yeah your totals do seem to be verifying...and they were against the grain when you posted them!

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Post by docstox12 on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:31 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Forecast for 2’ from NWS here is reality. 1400’. Due North if Doc and CP in Ulster county. Elevation over 1000’. WTF?March 2nd Nor'easter Update - Page 6 Bc0a7110

Jimmy, it's that warm tongue that Mugsy posted.That's a new one on me, never saw anything like that.You usually see that along the coast or areas near the coast, but for this to happen while I have had heavy snow all day, just bewilders the crap out of me.
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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:32 pm

That map should definitely be posted again. It will serve as a great example of what the arts and crafts program at the OTI Sanitarium can produce.

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Post by essexcountypete on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:36 pm

WeatherBob wrote:I have to say, this is a cool storm!  Rain up north, snow down south!, snow out east, rain in the middle, Blizzard conditions out NW, winds gusting to 50 here and there, winds light to calm here and there

I totally agree, and I've been stuck in that warm zone in Essex County with nothing more than a layer of slush on my deck. I think we'll be talking about this storm for years to come. The complex dynamics, the epic battle of the NAM vs. all the other models, the odd way it's all playing with precip types in different places, the warm air intrusion screw zone (Grrrrrr). Amazing storm.


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Post by WeatherBob on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:36 pm

Billg315- I am glad you used this as a learning experience and came up with your OWN conclusions, that’s awesome!
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:37 pm

Wow 28000 without power ever 15 min it goes up by a few thousand. Rb have we seen the worst of the wind or will it still be cranking all night?
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Post by billg315 on Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:40 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Wow 28000 without power ever 15 min it goes up by a few thousand. Rb have we seen the worst of the wind or will it still be cranking all night?
JMAN! I directed a personal wind gust story to you on page 5. True story, I didn't make it up. lol
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