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Wx Banter Thread 3.0

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Post by sroc4 Tue Jun 19, 2018 4:36 pm

docstox12 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:Noaa has issued a el nino watch for this fall .they are not sure how strong or weak will it be .let's hope for a weak el nino for a nice snowy winter . what do you think for. The upcoming el nino

That's interesting, but I can't see how they can predict that so far off.I agree with you, if it is an el nino, I hope it's weak also.

Doc I don't think its all that reasonable to call for an el nino "watch" at this time.  A large body of water and their relative SST anomalis don't typically acutely flip with the exception of the eastern most parts, Nino 1+2, because it is much more shallow relative to the rest of the equatorial Pac.  When you look at the last 10 months of the SST anomalies in the equatorial pac you can clearly see the trend away from colder Nina conditions towards warmer anomalies. In the last few months you can see the warmer anomalies which had been in the western most Pac and at depth, 100-200m, is starting to up sell towards the surface in the eastern third of the Eq Pac. The trend is clearly towards warmer anomalies so a watch for el nino conditions is certainly reasonable by this fall. Still a long way to go though as El Nino is not simply characterized by the SST anomalies. The ONI and the overall SOI as well as atmospheric conditions all factor into the definition of Nino, Nina, and Nada.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Jun 19, 2018 4:41 pm

Compare where we are now to where we were this time last year.  You can see by June of last year we can see the beginings of a cool pool developing at about 150m from the dateline on east. As we progressed into Sept the cool pool expanded and upwelled setting us up for the eventual Nina conditions to develop by late fall early winter.

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Jun 19, 2018 6:58 pm

Any chance we can meetup with Ryan on the Jersey Shore before he heads to Florida? I'm out the next two weekends so maybe sometime in July? Once once have I seen him (1/10/15) and this is the last chance before he heads for grad school.

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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:14 pm

Math23x7 wrote:Any chance we can meetup with Ryan on the Jersey Shore before he heads to Florida?  I'm out the next two weekends so maybe sometime in July?  Once once have I seen him (1/10/15) and this is the last chance before he heads for grad school.

We are trying to put something together, maybe 7/21. Stay tuned.

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Math23x7 Wed Jun 20, 2018 12:31 am

Dunnzoo wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:Any chance we can meetup with Ryan on the Jersey Shore before he heads to Florida?  I'm out the next two weekends so maybe sometime in July?  Once once have I seen him (1/10/15) and this is the last chance before he heads for grad school.

We are trying to put something together, maybe 7/21. Stay tuned.

Ugh. sorry that day doesn't work. I have plans to go to Yankee Stadium for the Subway Series game that day...

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Post by Guest Thu Jun 21, 2018 1:31 pm

On a totally unrelated note, I am suffering from serious storm tracking withdrawal. I like the sun and warm and all, but if anybody wants to make a fictional post about a freak summer snowstorm I'd be more than happy to drool over it.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:59 pm

Me too. The summer storms simply don't do it for me

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Post by docstox12 Thu Jun 21, 2018 7:38 pm

Lackatrackitis.......I'll have to add that to the list in the Sanitarium at OTI.
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Post by amugs Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:24 pm

Here is for the snow deprived junkies

https://twitter.com/rcbstormpost/status/1011564250735742977?s=19

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:59 pm

amugs wrote:Here is for the snow deprived junkies

https://twitter.com/rcbstormpost/status/1011564250735742977?s=19

ha ha...saw that this morning mugs...was going to post it, but you beat me to it!!
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Post by Guest Fri Jun 29, 2018 6:35 am

I don't know the words to describe the joy seeing that gave me. Especially considering what's coming for this area.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:38 am

amugs wrote:Here is for the snow deprived junkies

https://twitter.com/rcbstormpost/status/1011564250735742977?s=19

Great Post!  I spent a week in Wabush NL & Labrador several years ago in mid May.  It snowed everyday i was there and there was well over a foot on the ground.  Locals told me substantial snow is expected most years until beginning of June. Rare to see it in July - mid August.  

Anyone been to Nunavut, CA?  It must be a true tundra up there.  Probably snows regularly in July.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:25 pm

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jun 30, 2018 12:34 pm

My Wife and I just got back from a cruise to Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Maine.Temps up there this past week were in the low to mid 60's during the day.Back to a blowtorch,LOL.Well, the tomato plants are going to love this week anyhow!
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Post by dkodgis Tue Jul 03, 2018 12:12 pm

It is hard to believe my petunia baskets can take complete hot sunlight all day and not burn. Of course they need water every day but it is amazing that something so frail can withstand the sun while I beg for cooler weather. I guess August is going to be blazing saddles, too.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:35 pm

Time to take down the snow confidence index and put up the hurricane index. We have TD 2 and I am opening a threat for the tropics as the next several months I am sure there will be some people like me and ray at least interested in discussing.
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Post by Math23x7 Sat Jul 07, 2018 1:57 pm

Any updates on the potential Jersey Shore meetup? I want to see Ryan before he leaves and as I mentioned 7/21 does not work out for me.

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Post by Radz Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:20 am

Hey all, I will be going to chase again in 2019 with Extreme Tornado Tours for my 2nd time, Nick is adding a third van for Tour 5 (May 16th-May 27th) 10 day tour out of Oklahoma City. I know that severe weather isn't for everybody, and the cost of the trip is prohibitive, but thought i'd throw this out there. The more the merrier! 4 seats currently left if anyone is seriously interested let me know. You can check them out at www.extremetornadotours.com Janet are you ready yet Smile ?


Last edited by Radz on Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:19 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:40 am

Radz wrote:Hey all, I will be going to chase again in 2019 with Extreme Tornado Tours for my 2nd time, Nick is adding a third van for Tour 5 (May 16th-May 27th) 10 day tour out of Oklahoma City. I know that severe weather isn't for everybody, and the cost of the trip is prohibitive, but thought i'd through this out there. The more the merrier! 4 seats currently left if anyone is seriously interested let me know. You can check them out at www.extremetornadotours.com Janet are you ready yet Smile ?

Wish I was! Might be another year before I can go, but you never know, I may win the lottery! cheers

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Radz Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:34 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
Radz wrote:Hey all, I will be going to chase again in 2019 with Extreme Tornado Tours for my 2nd time, Nick is adding a third van for Tour 5 (May 16th-May 27th) 10 day tour out of Oklahoma City. I know that severe weather isn't for everybody, and the cost of the trip is prohibitive, but thought i'd through this out there. The more the merrier! 4 seats currently left if anyone is seriously interested let me know. You can check them out at www.extremetornadotours.com Janet are you ready yet Smile ?

Wish I was! Might be another year before I can go, but you never know, I may win the lottery! cheers
Just a dollar and a dream... more like $2 now, hope you make it out there soon!
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Post by billg315 Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:26 pm

Just thinking. Weather forecasts have been consistently right on target on temperature and precipitation for the last 4 or 5 weeks. Where are those people who only show up here during the occasional snowstorm in the winter to say the weathermen are always wrong? Wink
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Post by Guest Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:40 am

They're waiting for snowstorms to appear. For myself, I'd rather the weatherman be wrong about a snowstorm than right about forecasting that we won't see snow for months. Sunshine and warmth are great and all, but they don't touch the excitement of hitting the refresh button every 5 seconds to see who might have posted what about the next Godzilla.

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:25 pm

I brought this up about a month ago but Ryan, what is your work schedule between now and when you move to Florida? I could theoretically make it down to the Jersey Shore on a weekday if you're busy on weekends. I mentioned that I have plans this Saturday the 21st.

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Post by billg315 Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:05 pm

Nice little discussion on the All Star Game broadcast just now with Mike Trout (mic’d up in outfield) about how he’s a bit of a weather fanatic. Right before he launched a homerun. There’s not a thing I don’t like about that guy.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:24 pm

billg315 wrote:Nice little discussion on the All Star Game broadcast just now with Mike Trout (mic’d up in outfield) about how he’s a bit of a weather  fanatic. Right before he launched a homerun. There’s not a thing I don’t like about that guy.
He said he loves to track storms in the off season. Perhaps this winter he can join the weatherboard. That would be a great free agent signing! Laughing
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Post by billg315 Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:37 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
billg315 wrote:Nice little discussion on the All Star Game broadcast just now with Mike Trout (mic’d up in outfield) about how he’s a bit of a weather  fanatic. Right before he launched a homerun. There’s not a thing I don’t like about that guy.
He said he loves to track storms in the off season. Perhaps this winter he can join the weatherboard. That would be a great free agent signing! Laughing
You’re not kidding. He’d be a great addition - although he’d be more focused on South Jersey - but since that’s my old backyard and where I spend half my weekends I’d be fine with that perspective. Haha.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jul 20, 2018 2:46 pm

Nice post by JB:

It appears that the phase 6 of the MJO we are in, for this time of the year, is the strongest on record since 1975. Using the 15 days starting July 16, there are only 3 candidates in that 40 plus year period, 1996, 1989, 1984

When one stops to consider how important this is, giving the implications of WHERE THIS OCCURS AND THE ENERGY AND INPUT that is implied, this is a big deal.

Now here is something interesting, To me, someone trying to make an argument about the climate based on something like this means much much more to me than someone that is simply running around looking for local extreme events, Saying see, there were 33 tornadoes in Iowa yesterday or its scorching hot in Texas or dry in Europe is shiny penny meteorology and climo, And its why you can tell alot of these people are not really serious people, They MAY THINK THEY ARE, but if they were, they would be looking at something like this and gawking. I may sound judgemental and harsh, but its my opinion, Think about the usual suspects, do you think for one second they are looking at this and asking the cause? Or what it may mean going forward, What if the cause can be traced to something like low solar? That is a huge problem for someone saying its something else. And yet here we are, in a period that essentially started back in Feb 2017, watching a major weather/climate consideration challenging amplitude records at different times of the year, You would think that would raise someones attention, It has mine, for whatever the reason ( I have my ideas which I am working on now)

I rather doubt the usual suspects have any idea this is even occurring, for it is far more important in what they are pushing than trying to run to big weather events, btw outlined here on weatherbell back in May ( on the heat this summer) and made public in some blogs I share some of our stuff with after you see it!

Weather is all about truth and the pursuit of it, hence my attitude there is a spiritual lesson that it teaches., Come to think of it, alot of the challenges of today are that also. If you don't question what is and is not true as far as a cause, how do you have any hope of finding an answer?, Increased MJO amplification is a big deal. Could it be as I suspect related to solar and the reaction in the tropical oceans, coming off the super Nino and the falling SST all around, since last year, The drop off since last year is greater than the drop off from 2015 to 2017. Who can really say? But its amazing how many people are not even looking to me, i never see tweets for instance on this from other sources that hold an opinion different from my own on the source of the current state of the climate. Like I said its all shiny penny, weather, and climate ambulance chasing, A bunch of noise. But if we take that away, and look at something like this, chances are it's telling us much more

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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