Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

[billg315]

Nice little discussion on the All Star Game broadcast just now with Mike Trout (mic’d up in outfield) about how he’s a bit of a weather  fanatic. Right before he launched a homerun. There’s not a thing I don’t like about that guy.

He said he loves to track storms in the off season. Perhaps this winter he can join the weatherboard. That would be a great free agent signing!

You’re not kidding. He’d be a great addition - although he’d be more focused on South Jersey - but since that’s my old backyard and where I spend half my weekends I’d be fine with that perspective. Haha.

[sroc4]

Nice post by JB:

It appears that the phase 6 of the MJO we are in, for this time of the year, is the strongest on record since 1975. Using the 15 days starting July 16, there are only 3 candidates in that 40 plus year period, 1996, 1989, 1984

When one stops to consider how important this is, giving the implications of WHERE THIS OCCURS AND THE ENERGY AND INPUT that is implied, this is a big deal.

Now here is something interesting, To me, someone trying to make an argument about the climate based on something like this means much much more to me than someone that is simply running around looking for local extreme events, Saying see, there were 33 tornadoes in Iowa yesterday or its scorching hot in Texas or dry in Europe is shiny penny meteorology and climo, And its why you can tell alot of these people are not really serious people, They MAY THINK THEY ARE, but if they were, they would be looking at something like this and gawking. I may sound judgemental and harsh, but its my opinion, Think about the usual suspects, do you think for one second they are looking at this and asking the cause? Or what it may mean going forward, What if the cause can be traced to something like low solar? That is a huge problem for someone saying its something else. And yet here we are, in a period that essentially started back in Feb 2017, watching a major weather/climate consideration challenging amplitude records at different times of the year, You would think that would raise someones attention, It has mine, for whatever the reason ( I have my ideas which I am working on now)

I rather doubt the usual suspects have any idea this is even occurring, for it is far more important in what they are pushing than trying to run to big weather events, btw outlined here on weatherbell back in May ( on the heat this summer) and made public in some blogs I share some of our stuff with after you see it!

Weather is all about truth and the pursuit of it, hence my attitude there is a spiritual lesson that it teaches., Come to think of it, alot of the challenges of today are that also. If you don't question what is and is not true as far as a cause, how do you have any hope of finding an answer?, Increased MJO amplification is a big deal. Could it be as I suspect related to solar and the reaction in the tropical oceans, coming off the super Nino and the falling SST all around, since last year, The drop off since last year is greater than the drop off from 2015 to 2017. Who can really say? But its amazing how many people are not even looking to me, i never see tweets for instance on this from other sources that hold an opinion different from my own on the source of the current state of the climate. Like I said its all shiny penny, weather, and climate ambulance chasing, A bunch of noise. But if we take that away, and look at something like this, chances are it's telling us much more

[amugs]

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 8 days
2018 total: 119 days (56%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

SOLAR MINIMUM DEEPENS: The sun has been without sunspots for 32 of the past 33 days. To find a similar stretch of blank suns, you have to go back to 2009 when the sun was experiencing the deepest solar minimum in a century. Solar minimum has returned, bringing extra cosmic rays, long-lasting holes in the sun's atmosphere, and strangely pink auroras


Updated 30 Jul 2018





This will enhance clouds over the mid to north latitudes as so I have read online and in a book this summer so far. The other very interesting planetary alignment is for the big boys to start to align as they did in other other solar minimum stages over the past millennium of research. The big boys = Neptune, Uranus, Jupiter and Saturn. They when aligned cause the gravitational pull on the sun thus elongated its structure which translates to low sun spots and less irradiance plus these alignments cause celestial gravity waves to effect our planet which is new in research but very interesting (Lester). So what is all this information pointing towards??? Great question and remains to be seen - equatorial violent volcanic eruptions not so much above ground but below meaning the oceans especially the pac which could induce massive amount of sulfur and water vapor to be discharge into the atmosphere, more clouds, effects on jet stream patterns = colder temps and effects on storms and paths possibly. The snow pack over the pole and Greenland will have the albedo effect which should also help with pattern development i.e. blocking and N AO/NAO couplet which could have a feedback loop once it gets going. One thing to note, those sultry hot oppressive days we experience in July due to that HP over Quebec - give us that a degree in winter and we have the cold easily.

[docstox12]

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 8 days
2018 total: 119 days (56%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

SOLAR MINIMUM DEEPENS: The sun has been without sunspots for 32 of the past 33 days. To find a similar stretch of blank suns, you have to go back to 2009 when the sun was experiencing the deepest solar minimum in a century. Solar minimum has returned, bringing extra cosmic rays, long-lasting holes in the sun's atmosphere, and strangely pink auroras


Updated 30 Jul 2018





This will enhance clouds over the mid to north latitudes as so I have read online and in a book this summer so far. The other very interesting planetary alignment is for the big boys to start to align as they did in other other solar minimum stages over the past millennium of research. The big boys = Neptune, Uranus, Jupiter and Saturn. They when aligned cause the gravitational pull on the sun thus elongated its structure which translates to low sun spots and less irradiance plus these alignments cause celestial gravity waves to effect our planet which is new in research but very interesting (Lester). So what is all this information pointing towards??? Great question and remains to be seen - equatorial violent volcanic eruptions not so much above ground but below meaning the oceans especially the pac which could induce massive amount of sulfur and water vapor to be discharge into the atmosphere, more clouds, effects on jet stream patterns = colder temps and effects on storms and paths possibly.  The snow pack over the pole and Greenland will have the albedo effect which should also help with pattern development i.e. blocking and N AO/NAO couplet which could have a feedback loop once it gets going. One thing to note, those sultry hot oppressive days we experience in July due to that HP over Quebec - give us that a degree in winter and we have the cold easily.

Mugsy, incredibly interesting information which makes a lot of sense.Sun and planetary influence on our weather patterns is an amazing thing!

[sroc4]

Great Stuff Mugs!

[Guest]

Just doing a quick drive by check in. Hope everyone is enjoying this boring ass weather. I need a hurricane or something. Hope everyone is good. Out,

[dkodgis]

Mugs, I know lower to no sun spot activity = potentially colder winters. If I have that right, what might the no sun spot activity do to summer weather besides higher cloud cover?

[jmanley32]

Just doing a quick drive by check in.  Hope everyone is enjoying this boring ass weather.  I need a hurricane or something.  Hope everyone is good.  Out,

LOL look at my post in august thread, I mentioned you and heres the post to prove what I said was true.

[sroc4]

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 8 days
2018 total: 119 days (56%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

SOLAR MINIMUM DEEPENS: The sun has been without sunspots for 32 of the past 33 days. To find a similar stretch of blank suns, you have to go back to 2009 when the sun was experiencing the deepest solar minimum in a century. Solar minimum has returned, bringing extra cosmic rays, long-lasting holes in the sun's atmosphere, and strangely pink auroras


Updated 30 Jul 2018





This will enhance clouds over the mid to north latitudes as so I have read online and in a book this summer so far. The other very interesting planetary alignment is for the big boys to start to align as they did in other other solar minimum stages over the past millennium of research. The big boys = Neptune, Uranus, Jupiter and Saturn. They when aligned cause the gravitational pull on the sun thus elongated its structure which translates to low sun spots and less irradiance plus these alignments cause celestial gravity waves to effect our planet which is new in research but very interesting (Lester). So what is all this information pointing towards??? Great question and remains to be seen - equatorial violent volcanic eruptions not so much above ground but below meaning the oceans especially the pac which could induce massive amount of sulfur and water vapor to be discharge into the atmosphere, more clouds, effects on jet stream patterns = colder temps and effects on storms and paths possibly.  The snow pack over the pole and Greenland will have the albedo effect which should also help with pattern development i.e. blocking and N AO/NAO couplet which could have a feedback loop once it gets going. One thing to note, those sultry hot oppressive days we experience in July due to that HP over Quebec - give us that a degree in winter and we have the cold easily.

Hey Mugsy. Have you come across anything that talks about the past and or present under water volcanic activity? Increased decreased activity etc.

[amugs]

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 8 days
2018 total: 119 days (56%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

SOLAR MINIMUM DEEPENS: The sun has been without sunspots for 32 of the past 33 days. To find a similar stretch of blank suns, you have to go back to 2009 when the sun was experiencing the deepest solar minimum in a century. Solar minimum has returned, bringing extra cosmic rays, long-lasting holes in the sun's atmosphere, and strangely pink auroras


Updated 30 Jul 2018





This will enhance clouds over the mid to north latitudes as so I have read online and in a book this summer so far. The other very interesting planetary alignment is for the big boys to start to align as they did in other other solar minimum stages over the past millennium of research. The big boys = Neptune, Uranus, Jupiter and Saturn. They when aligned cause the gravitational pull on the sun thus elongated its structure which translates to low sun spots and less irradiance plus these alignments cause celestial gravity waves to effect our planet which is new in research but very interesting (Lester). So what is all this information pointing towards??? Great question and remains to be seen - equatorial violent volcanic eruptions not so much above ground but below meaning the oceans especially the pac which could induce massive amount of sulfur and water vapor to be discharge into the atmosphere, more clouds, effects on jet stream patterns = colder temps and effects on storms and paths possibly.  The snow pack over the pole and Greenland will have the albedo effect which should also help with pattern development i.e. blocking and N AO/NAO couplet which could have a feedback loop once it gets going. One thing to note, those sultry hot oppressive days we experience in July due to that HP over Quebec - give us that a degree in winter and we have the cold easily.

Hey Mugsy. Have you come across anything that talks about the past and or present under water volcanic activity?  Increased decreased activity etc.

Scott,
I have not looks into this but read this in two books this summer, one by John Caseys and the other Lawrenceville Pierce. Need to look further and great question. I will look further after my honey due list is completed which is about done for the summer!!

[dkodgis]

If we do have an El Nino this fall, I expect it will be warm to the end of the year, and some storms in March. I think cold, front-loaded winters are gone, a thing of the past.

[sroc4]

Interesting differences between the Australian's SSTA maps and NOAA's SSTA maps regarding the Trop Pac SST anomalies between approx. 140w and 100w.  Notice Australia site has a pool of BN anomalies developed between approx 125 and 75 meter depth with Normal SST anomalies from about 75meters to the surface above it; whereas the NOAA site has only a hint of the cold pool at depth and well AN temp anomalies above it.  So which is it??  Also take note on the Australian site that the trend over the last 4 months is a relative cooling to the warmer SSTA in the trop Pac at the surface an at depth.  Interesting observations headed into the Fall.  That said an SOI drop has started.  Modeling suggests that a neg SOI(weaker easterlies in the trop Pac) might rekindle the warmer anomalies in the trop Pac moving forward, but we shall see.  

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/oceanography/wrap_ocean_analysis.pl?id=IDYOC007&year=2018&month=08


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

[rb924119]

WEATHERBELL'S WINTER FORECAST/ PIONEER MODEL, AS WELL AS EURO/CANADIAN SEASONALS GOT ME ***FIRED UP***, FOLKS!!!!! No idea if they're gonna be right, BUT IF THEY ARE, THE WINTER WEENIE COMMUNITY IS GONNA BE ONE TIREF GROUP COME APRIL AHAHAHAHA WOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

[billg315]

I haven't even seen these models, but I'm vicariously excited through rb's post.

[sroc4]

WEATHERBELL'S WINTER FORECAST/ PIONEER MODEL, AS WELL AS EURO/CANADIAN SEASONALS GOT ME ***FIRED UP***, FOLKS!!!!! No idea if they're gonna be right, BUT IF THEY ARE, THE WINTER WEENIE COMMUNITY IS GONNA BE ONE TIREF GROUP COME APRIL AHAHAHAHA WOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

He has some really interesting ideas and theories and it really makes a ton of sense. When I have some extra time, which seems like never this summer, I will try and post some of the maps and discussions from JB for all to read.

[Quietace]

WEATHERBELL'S WINTER FORECAST/ PIONEER MODEL, AS WELL AS EURO/CANADIAN SEASONALS GOT ME ***FIRED UP***, FOLKS!!!!! No idea if they're gonna be right, BUT IF THEY ARE, THE WINTER WEENIE COMMUNITY IS GONNA BE ONE TIREF GROUP COME APRIL AHAHAHAHA WOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

[weatherwatchermom]

WEATHERBELL'S WINTER FORECAST/ PIONEER MODEL, AS WELL AS EURO/CANADIAN SEASONALS GOT ME ***FIRED UP***, FOLKS!!!!! No idea if they're gonna be right, BUT IF THEY ARE, THE WINTER WEENIE COMMUNITY IS GONNA BE ONE TIREF GROUP COME APRIL AHAHAHAHA WOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

He has some really interesting ideas and theories and it really makes a ton of sense.  When I have some extra time, which seems like never this summer, I will try and post some of the maps and discussions from JB for all to read.

Thank you...because RB..just wants to shock and awe and leave us high and dry....

[docstox12]

WEATHERBELL'S WINTER FORECAST/ PIONEER MODEL, AS WELL AS EURO/CANADIAN SEASONALS GOT ME ***FIRED UP***, FOLKS!!!!! No idea if they're gonna be right, BUT IF THEY ARE, THE WINTER WEENIE COMMUNITY IS GONNA BE ONE TIREF GROUP COME APRIL AHAHAHAHA WOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

He has some really interesting ideas and theories and it really makes a ton of sense.  When I have some extra time, which seems like never this summer, I will try and post some of the maps and discussions from JB for all to read.

Thank you...because RB..just wants to shock and awe and leave us high and dry....

LOL, right Mom.Its like rb shouted "there's a blizzard outside" in an auditorium full of people with no windows and then finding all the doors are locked to get out and see.Give us the scuttlebutt,LOL.Just the mention of a possible snowy winter sure helps to get through this God awful stretch of tropical weather.

[rb924119]

In my defense, (clears throat), I have had issues posting from mobile, and much like Scott, have not been able to find enough time to get in front of my computer lmao This also explains my lack of videos, discussions, etc. But have no fear!!!! For I shall have the time later this weekend/early next week.

Scott, he does bring to light some interesting correlations. That's something I really wish that I had the time for - doing research and putting together a seasonal outlook, but with so many other irons in the fire (jobs, etc.), I'm stuck reading everybody else's (for now) lol I am quite excited for Tom's outlook, though, given the seemingly growing support for a funvwinter via multiple independent sources/methods. Not that science is based on consensus, but it at least provides some hope after this horrid summer lmaoooo

[billg315]

WEATHERBELL'S WINTER FORECAST/ PIONEER MODEL, AS WELL AS EURO/CANADIAN SEASONALS GOT ME ***FIRED UP***, FOLKS!!!!! No idea if they're gonna be right, BUT IF THEY ARE, THE WINTER WEENIE COMMUNITY IS GONNA BE ONE TIREF GROUP COME APRIL AHAHAHAHA WOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

He has some really interesting ideas and theories and it really makes a ton of sense.  When I have some extra time, which seems like never this summer, I will try and post some of the maps and discussions from JB for all to read.

Thank you...because RB..just wants to shock and awe and leave us high and dry....

LOL, right Mom.Its like rb shouted "there's a blizzard outside" in an auditorium full of people with no windows and then finding all the doors are locked to get out and see.Give us the scuttlebutt,LOL.Just the mention of a possible snowy winter sure helps to get through this God awful stretch of tropical weather.

On OTI yelling "blizzard" in a crowded theater with no windows is a felony offense not protected by constitutional free speech rights.

[docstox12]

WEATHERBELL'S WINTER FORECAST/ PIONEER MODEL, AS WELL AS EURO/CANADIAN SEASONALS GOT ME ***FIRED UP***, FOLKS!!!!! No idea if they're gonna be right, BUT IF THEY ARE, THE WINTER WEENIE COMMUNITY IS GONNA BE ONE TIREF GROUP COME APRIL AHAHAHAHA WOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

He has some really interesting ideas and theories and it really makes a ton of sense.  When I have some extra time, which seems like never this summer, I will try and post some of the maps and discussions from JB for all to read.

Thank you...because RB..just wants to shock and awe and leave us high and dry....

LOL, right Mom.Its like rb shouted "there's a blizzard outside" in an auditorium full of people with no windows and then finding all the doors are locked to get out and see.Give us the scuttlebutt,LOL.Just the mention of a possible snowy winter sure helps to get through this God awful stretch of tropical weather.

On OTI yelling "blizzard" in a crowded theater with no windows is a felony offense not protected by constitutional free speech rights.

[docstox12]

In my defense, (clears throat), I have had issues posting from mobile, and much like Scott, have not been able to find enough time to get in front of my computer lmao This also explains my lack of videos, discussions, etc. But have no fear!!!! For I shall have the time later this weekend/early next week.

Scott, he does bring to light some interesting correlations. That's something I really wish that I had the time for - doing research and putting together a seasonal outlook, but with so many other irons in the fire (jobs, etc.), I'm stuck reading everybody else's (for now) lol I am quite excited for Tom's outlook, though, given the seemingly growing support for a funvwinter via multiple independent sources/methods. Not that science is based on consensus, but it at least provides some hope after this horrid summer lmaoooo

And referring to a line from a great movie "Shawshank Redemption", HOPE is a good thing! Can't wait to get you rb, doc, Frank, Mugsy and the rest of the crew up and running again.Enjoy the rest of the summer!

[rb924119]

In my defense, (clears throat), I have had issues posting from mobile, and much like Scott, have not been able to find enough time to get in front of my computer lmao This also explains my lack of videos, discussions, etc. But have no fear!!!! For I shall have the time later this weekend/early next week.

Scott, he does bring to light some interesting correlations. That's something I really wish that I had the time for - doing research and putting together a seasonal outlook, but with so many other irons in the fire (jobs, etc.), I'm stuck reading everybody else's (for now) lol I am quite excited for Tom's outlook, though, given the seemingly growing support for a funvwinter via multiple independent sources/methods. Not that science is based on consensus, but it at least provides some hope after this horrid summer lmaoooo

And referring to a line from a great movie "Shawshank Redemption", HOPE is a good thing! Can't wait to get you rb, doc, Frank, Mugsy and the rest of the crew up and running again.Enjoy the rest of the summer!

That makes two of us, buddy!! Especially after this summer; it has been BORINGGGGGGGGGG haha

[oldtimer]

In my neck of the woods I’ve never seen morning lows and dewpoints as high as this year. Persistent dew points of 72 and and higher. Crazy. Morning lows low to mid 70’s. Can’t wait for fall

[Dunnzoo]

Windows open, no AC! 71 beautiful degrees!

[Math23x7]

It has been 1,000 days since I last saw Frank or Scott.  (11/14/15)  While I have seen the others in this picture, it's interesting I haven't seen the admins since then:

[Dunnzoo]

We really need to get together again soon! Since this weekend is going to ruin a lot of weekend plans, anyone up for meeting Saturday or Sunday?

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