Wx Banter Thread 3.0
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48 posters
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
It has been 1,000 days since I last saw Frank or Scott. (11/14/15) While I have seen the others in this picture, it's interesting I haven't seen the admins since then:
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
We really need to get together again soon! Since this weekend is going to ruin a lot of weekend plans, anyone up for meeting Saturday or Sunday?
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
Yes we do Janet I was hoping we can meet up really soon i am going to Aruba this Thursday till the 24 the of Aug so maybe the first week of September is good
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
frank 638 wrote:Yes we do Janet I was hoping we can meet up really soon i am going to Aruba this Thursday till the 24 the of Aug so maybe the first week of September is good
That's why I mentioned this weekend! I am going on vaca 8/18 through labor day down the shore, so I figured - throw it out there!
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
Ok thanks Janet unfortunately I am working tomorrow and it's my dad's birthday but we won't have another get together soon and we will start talk about winter have a great time on your vacation stay safe
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
Since the weather has been excruciatingly boring here are some interesting videos. This is not meant to be a climate debate. However if it sparks an adult discussion so be it. If you are going to respond it must be civilized or it will be deleted.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
sroc4 wrote:Since the weather has been excruciatingly boring here are some interesting videos. This is not meant to be a climate debate. However if it sparks an adult discussion so be it. If you are going to respond it must be civilized or it will be deleted.
One more
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
Hey everyone I am in Aruba having the best time of the summer I am staying at the Riu Palace. Anyway I was just reading up on the Farmers Almanac for this winter and I am not liking what they are saying it could be a warm and wet winter for almost the whole country now I know things can change but I hope they are wrong
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
An interesting tidbit to note where I believe alot of board members have already picked up on is the fact that the heaviest axis of precipitation have consistently been concentrated in the NE corridor of NJ all summer. Why is that important? Well if you look back to last winter, the same locations were consistently in the subsidence or screw zone with many of our winter storm events. That's one heck of a turn around. I often ponder what's in store for next winter for my hometown.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
_________________
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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
Frank_Wx wrote:
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
For this, my 600th post...may I ask what folks think a Modoki El Nino might have on our area for winter? I am guessing that the temps are the same, maybe just a degree or two cooler and not a snowy season. I understand there are other variables such as if the atmosphere is not playing along. Yes, while I think of picking up leaves this fall, I have my imagination focused on winter. I don't know jack so I am asking for what you all think is coming...understanding it is all a guess right now with only minimal parts of the picture in place.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
dkodgis wrote:For this, my 600th post...may I ask what folks think a Modoki El Nino might have on our area for winter? I am guessing that the temps are the same, maybe just a degree or two cooler and not a snowy season. I understand there are other variables such as if the atmosphere is not playing along. Yes, while I think of picking up leaves this fall, I have my imagination focused on winter. I don't know jack so I am asking for what you all think is coming...understanding it is all a guess right now with only minimal parts of the picture in place.
Congrats on your 600th post dk. To answer your question very generalized and broadly: Modoki type el ninos years tend to favor the NE for cold and or snow. The reason is because how the SST anoamlies set up across the equatorial pac. affects how the sub tropical jet configuration sets up during the winter months.
Here is a link with a nice over view of Modoki El Nino:
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en
Here is a list of all the "Modoki" classified El Nino winters since 1950:
57/58
63/64
65/66
68/69
77/78
86/87
91/92
94/95
02/03
04/05
Now here is what the average 500mb map and surface temperature maps look like for the december through Feb time frame for all these years combined:
What this shows us is that on average during Modoki El Nino years between the months of Dec through Feb there is a tendency to have trough in the east with Blocking over Greenland(-NAO) and the temps avg below average in the eastern third of the country. Here is also a link to the snowfall totals in NYC to get an idea of what the snowfall was like in the years listed above. You will notice there are a few heavy hitters in this list but also notice there are two duds in 91-92 and 94-95.
https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
So the take away is IF a Modoki El Nino were to take shape for winter, and this is not a foregone conclusion yet, this would statistically speaking favors a colder than avg winter season and snowier than avg season. This, keep in mind, is only one driver when looking at the big picture. There are many other factors that will need to be monitored as we head into the fall months including but limited to things like the state of the QBO, the Oct Siberian snow cover index, and the Atlantic SST configuration and anomaly etc. to name a few
Last edited by sroc4 on Mon Aug 27, 2018 9:11 am; edited 1 time in total
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
Ah! There it is, out on the table, black and white. And color. I get it now. I like knowing what is what and this is concise writing. I read the bits and pieces and being a layman, I can’t do the synthesis. Thank you for connecting the dots.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
Hey, anyone interested? I'm going...
http://www.wcsu.edu/weatherconference
http://www.wcsu.edu/weatherconference
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
Looking at the 0Z ECMWF in terms of hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin be like: "Well that escalated quickly"
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
It is September...where did the time go?
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
Doc, let us set up a command post regarding this hurricane. I know the perfect rib joint. The beer's cold.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
Quietace wrote:It is September...where did the time go?
Where you living now?
TheAresian wrote:*pokes head in the door* Is it winter yet?
No but I saw the 540 isotherm line on a model run this morning and I got a tingly feeling inside
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
Moved here as Banter.
jmanley32 wrote:sorry ya seriously u pick on me for that I didn't like it u know how I get. Banter over just saying. I'm over it.sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:hey when I said move on you didn't like it Scott syo says it and its fine...hmmm. I agree doesn't look like we go see anything. But I'm not quitting completely. Btw did u guys see the rain map for nc yikes 20 plus!syosnow94 wrote:sroc4 wrote:syosnow94 wrote:Disappointed to check in this morning and see the latest forecast. Guess it’s time to throw in the towel for us up here in the tri state. Even rainfall impacts look to be minimal if any at all. Bummer.
See ya in late Nov buddy.
See you then Scott
Jon seriously?
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
This is florences approach song, used to love this track.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFS4zYWxzNA
Piano parts are eyewall replacement cycles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFS4zYWxzNA
Piano parts are eyewall replacement cycles.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
How computer models did verses actual forecast by the NHC, Interesting read when you have the time.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify3.shtml
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify3.shtml
Joe Snow- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
dkodgis wrote:Doc, let us set up a command post regarding this hurricane. I know the perfect rib joint. The beer's cold.
LOL Damian.Hold that rib joint for a winter meet up of the northern crew!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
There was discussion in another thread in regards to wanting impacts from tropical cyclones. Two years ago, BillG posted this and I reposted it in the Banter thread last year. Here it is again:
This is not a criticism or judgment of anyone else, but just my personal feeling and my personal concerns/fears. While I will occasionally pull for us to get buried under a snowstorm, I will never wish for a strong hurricane or tropical system to make a direct hit on us. Snowstorms are fun to track, amazing to watch, leave a beautiful landscape of snow cover, and are fun for kids (and some adults) to play in. While there are certainly dangers with any storm, and snowstorms can result in some damage and fatalities, they are far more isolated and less frequent with snowstorms than tropical systems. I certainly never sit in my house during a snowstorm worrying about it caving in on me, or flooding. While tropical systems are fun to track, and an awesome display of nature, they are undeniably deadly and destructive. They almost always result in widespread damage if not total destruction, and deaths in many cases. I do not want my friends' new house at the shore flattened or flooded beyond repair; I don't want entire blocks of housing in shore towns wiped off the map; I do not want my roof blown off, a tree crashing through my bedroom, or my basement flooded -- nor any of those things for any of my neighbors or friends; I do not want people to be without power for days or weeks at a time. I remember during Sandy hearing the winds whipping outside, hearing the roof ripping off my apartment building, watching the normally sturdy utility poles swaying and thinking "man, these are 70 mph winds, I can't imagine how scary it would be if they were 100 mph or 120 mph." So, while people are free to wish for whatever they want, I will continue to wish that this thing (and every other tropical system in the future) either goes out to sea, or if it does impact us, it does so as a significantly weakened extra-tropical low with just some moderate rain and wind. Just my personal preference.
This is not a criticism or judgment of anyone else, but just my personal feeling and my personal concerns/fears. While I will occasionally pull for us to get buried under a snowstorm, I will never wish for a strong hurricane or tropical system to make a direct hit on us. Snowstorms are fun to track, amazing to watch, leave a beautiful landscape of snow cover, and are fun for kids (and some adults) to play in. While there are certainly dangers with any storm, and snowstorms can result in some damage and fatalities, they are far more isolated and less frequent with snowstorms than tropical systems. I certainly never sit in my house during a snowstorm worrying about it caving in on me, or flooding. While tropical systems are fun to track, and an awesome display of nature, they are undeniably deadly and destructive. They almost always result in widespread damage if not total destruction, and deaths in many cases. I do not want my friends' new house at the shore flattened or flooded beyond repair; I don't want entire blocks of housing in shore towns wiped off the map; I do not want my roof blown off, a tree crashing through my bedroom, or my basement flooded -- nor any of those things for any of my neighbors or friends; I do not want people to be without power for days or weeks at a time. I remember during Sandy hearing the winds whipping outside, hearing the roof ripping off my apartment building, watching the normally sturdy utility poles swaying and thinking "man, these are 70 mph winds, I can't imagine how scary it would be if they were 100 mph or 120 mph." So, while people are free to wish for whatever they want, I will continue to wish that this thing (and every other tropical system in the future) either goes out to sea, or if it does impact us, it does so as a significantly weakened extra-tropical low with just some moderate rain and wind. Just my personal preference.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
Yep, that still sums up my feelings. I don't tell anyone what to wish for, everyone has their own opinions on it, but for me personally the downside of these things far outweighs any upside. As a weather person I certainly have that inherent curiosity of wanting to see what it's like being in the middle of this type of awe-inspiring storm (if I could do so without risking life and limb), but ultimately I just prefer they stay away.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0
BillG. Totally agree. It’s exhilarating to track and a part of me craves the excitement. I never ever would want a storm such as Florence to hit anywhere. The loss of life and destruction is horrible and too real. It’s life changing. But it’s nature and can’t control, only respect and understand. A snow storm however!!! Thanks for posting.
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