Wx Banter Thread 3.0

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by frank 638 on Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:48 pm

Yes we do Janet I was hoping we can meet up really soon i am going to Aruba this Thursday till the 24 the of Aug so maybe the first week of September is good

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:50 pm

frank 638 wrote:Yes we do Janet I was hoping we can meet up really soon i am going to Aruba this Thursday till the 24 the of Aug so maybe the first week of September is good

Cool That's why I mentioned this weekend! I am going on vaca 8/18 through labor day down the shore, so I figured - throw it out there!

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by frank 638 on Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:07 pm

Ok thanks Janet unfortunately I am working tomorrow and it's my dad's birthday but we won't have another get together soon and we will start talk about winter have a great time on your vacation stay safe

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by sroc4 on Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:31 pm

Since the weather has been excruciatingly boring here are some interesting videos. This is not meant to be a climate debate. However if it sparks an adult discussion so be it. If you are going to respond it must be civilized or it will be deleted.





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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 3.00" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3"
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:53 am

sroc4 wrote:Since the weather has been excruciatingly boring here are some interesting videos.  This is not meant to be a climate debate. However if it sparks an adult discussion so be it.  If you are going to respond it must be civilized or it will be deleted.  





One more


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 3.00" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3"
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by frank 638 on Fri Aug 17, 2018 6:33 pm

Hey everyone I am in Aruba having the best time of the summer I am staying at the Riu Palace. Anyway I was just reading up on the Farmers Almanac for this winter and I am not liking what they are saying it could be a warm and wet winter for almost the whole country now I know things can change but I hope they are wrong

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Aug 19, 2018 7:19 am

An interesting tidbit to note where I believe alot of board members have already picked up on is the fact that the heaviest axis of precipitation have consistently been concentrated in the NE corridor of NJ all summer. Why is that important? Well if you look back to last winter, the same locations were consistently in the subsidence or screw zone with many of our winter storm events. That's one heck of a turn around. I often ponder what's in store for next winter for my hometown.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:39 pm

white flag

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by Quietace on Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:23 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:white flag

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by dkodgis on Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:33 pm

For this, my 600th post...may I ask what folks think a Modoki El Nino might have on our area for winter? I am guessing that the temps are the same, maybe just a degree or two cooler and not a snowy season. I understand there are other variables such as if the atmosphere is not playing along. Yes, while I think of picking up leaves this fall, I have my imagination focused on winter. I don't know jack so I am asking for what you all think is coming...understanding it is all a guess right now with only minimal parts of the picture in place.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:01 am

dkodgis wrote:For this, my 600th post...may I ask what folks think a Modoki El Nino might have on our area for winter? I am guessing that the temps are the same, maybe just a degree or two cooler and not a snowy season. I understand there are other variables such as if the atmosphere is not playing along. Yes, while I think of picking up leaves this fall, I have my imagination focused on winter. I don't know jack so I am asking for what you all think is coming...understanding it is all a guess right now with only minimal parts of the picture in place.

Congrats on your 600th post dk.  To answer your question very generalized and broadly:  Modoki type el ninos years tend to favor the NE for cold and or snow.  The reason is because how the SST anoamlies set up across the equatorial pac. affects how the sub tropical jet configuration sets up during the winter months.  

Here is a link with a nice over view of Modoki El Nino:
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

Here is a list of all the "Modoki" classified El Nino winters since 1950:
57/58
63/64
65/66
68/69
77/78
86/87
91/92
94/95
02/03
04/05

Now here is what the average 500mb map and surface temperature maps look like for the december through Feb time frame for all these years combined:



What this shows us is that on average during Modoki El Nino years between the months of Dec through Feb there is a tendency to have trough in the east with Blocking over Greenland(-NAO) and the temps avg below average in the eastern third of the country.  Here is also a link to the snowfall totals in NYC to get an idea of what the snowfall was like in the years listed above.  You will notice there are a few heavy hitters in this list but also notice there are two duds in 91-92 and 94-95.
https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

So the take away is IF a Modoki El Nino were to take shape for winter, and this is not a foregone conclusion yet, this would statistically speaking favors a colder than avg winter season and snowier than avg season.  This, keep in mind, is only one driver when looking at the big picture.   There are many other factors that will need to be monitored as we head into the fall months including but limited to things like the state of the QBO, the Oct Siberian snow cover index, and the Atlantic SST configuration and anomaly etc. to name a few


Last edited by sroc4 on Mon Aug 27, 2018 9:11 am; edited 1 time in total

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 3.00" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3"
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by dkodgis on Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:43 am

Ah! There it is, out on the table, black and white. And color. I get it now. I like knowing what is what and this is concise writing. I read the bits and pieces and being a layman, I can’t do the synthesis. Thank you for connecting the dots.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:38 am

Hey, anyone interested? I'm going...

http://www.wcsu.edu/weatherconference

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Snowfall winter of 2018-2019      7.75"

Snowfall winter of 2017-2018       50.15"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by Math23x7 on Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:47 am

Looking at the 0Z ECMWF in terms of hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin be like: "Well that escalated quickly"

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by Quietace on Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:15 am

It is September...where did the time go?

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by TheAresian on Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:22 pm

*pokes head in the door* Is it winter yet?
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by dkodgis on Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:33 pm

Doc, let us set up a command post regarding this hurricane. I know the perfect rib joint. The beer's cold.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:26 am

Quietace wrote:It is September...where did the time go?

Where you living now?

TheAresian wrote:*pokes head in the door* Is it winter yet?

No but I saw the 540 isotherm line on a model run this morning and I got a tingly feeling inside

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by billg315 on Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:03 pm

Moved here as Banter.

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Disappointed to check in this morning and see the latest forecast. Guess it’s time to throw in the towel for us up here in the tri state. Even rainfall impacts look to be minimal if any at all. Bummer.

See ya in late Nov buddy.  bananadude told ya

See you then Scott
hey when I said move on you didn't like it Scott syo says it and its fine...hmmm. I agree doesn't look like we go see anything. But I'm not quitting completely. Btw did u guys see the rain map for nc yikes 20 plus!

Jon seriously?  
sorry ya seriously u pick on me for that I didn't like it u know how I get. Banter over just saying. I'm over it.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:40 pm

This is florences approach song, used to love this track.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFS4zYWxzNA

Piano parts are eyewall replacement cycles.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by Joe Snow on Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:28 am

How computer models did verses actual forecast by the NHC, Interesting read when you have the time.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify3.shtml
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by docstox12 on Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:48 am

dkodgis wrote:Doc, let us set up a command post regarding this hurricane. I know the perfect rib joint. The beer's cold.

LOL Damian.Hold that rib joint for a winter meet up of the northern crew!
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by Math23x7 on Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:53 pm

There was discussion in another thread in regards to wanting impacts from tropical cyclones. Two years ago, BillG posted this and I reposted it in the Banter thread last year. Here it is again:

This is not a criticism or judgment of anyone else, but just my personal feeling and my personal concerns/fears. While I will occasionally pull for us to get buried under a snowstorm, I will never wish for a strong hurricane or tropical system to make a direct hit on us. Snowstorms are fun to track, amazing to watch, leave a beautiful landscape of snow cover, and are fun for kids (and some adults) to play in. While there are certainly dangers with any storm, and snowstorms can result in some damage and fatalities, they are far more isolated and less frequent with snowstorms than tropical systems. I certainly never sit in my house during a snowstorm worrying about it caving in on me, or flooding. While tropical systems are fun to track, and an awesome display of nature, they are undeniably deadly and destructive. They almost always result in widespread damage if not total destruction, and deaths in many cases. I do not want my friends' new house at the shore flattened or flooded beyond repair; I don't want entire blocks of housing in shore towns wiped off the map; I do not want my roof blown off, a tree crashing through my bedroom, or my basement flooded -- nor any of those things for any of my neighbors or friends; I do not want people to be without power for days or weeks at a time. I remember during Sandy hearing the winds whipping outside, hearing the roof ripping off my apartment building, watching the normally sturdy utility poles swaying and thinking "man, these are 70 mph winds, I can't imagine how scary it would be if they were 100 mph or 120 mph." So, while people are free to wish for whatever they want, I will continue to wish that this thing (and every other tropical system in the future) either goes out to sea, or if it does impact us, it does so as a significantly weakened extra-tropical low with just some moderate rain and wind. Just my personal preference.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by billg315 on Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:51 pm

Yep, that still sums up my feelings. I don't tell anyone what to wish for, everyone has their own opinions on it, but for me personally the downside of these things far outweighs any upside. As a weather person I certainly have that inherent curiosity of wanting to see what it's like being in the middle of this type of awe-inspiring storm (if I could do so without risking life and limb), but ultimately I just prefer they stay away.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by Grselig on Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:09 am

BillG. Totally agree. It’s exhilarating to track and a part of me craves the excitement. I never ever would want a storm such as Florence to hit anywhere. The loss of life and destruction is horrible and too real. It’s life changing. But it’s nature and can’t control, only respect and understand. A snow storm however!!! Thanks for posting.
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