Wx Banter Thread 3.0

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by sroc4 on Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:07 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
billg315 wrote:I'll put this in Banter since it is fantasy land stuff. But, it isn't inconsistent with the direction temperatures appear headed in the next couple of weeks. GFS around Monday, Oct.22 brings a strong cold front through, drops temps into the 30s, and blows up a storm off the New England coast bringing many in this region several hours of wrap-around snowfall. I post this less for any confidence of it panning out, and more because it is the first time this year I think a model has shown a substantial period of snow for our region -- so just a sign we are approaching go-time for the coming snow tracking season.
Saw that and recall 2011, its not impossible, that was a terribly damaging storm especially CT. I remember all the trees and branches falling all around me.  All it takes is exactly what you said a cold air source and a bombing out storm to create its own cold.  Why the heck not, the past 9 months have just been wild weather all over the US including here lets add a October snowstorm while we are at a it lol, yeah yeah I know some believe a abnormally early snowstorm means a quiet winter but IMO thats just coincidence.

I know personally in Orange County the October 29, 2011 storm was very damaging. We ended up with 16 inches of snow and I lost 4 tress in my yard from that storm, all bradford pears which just keep their leaves to long and couldn't stand the weight of the snow. NYC saw 2.9 inches that day which is their largest October snow since records have been kept.

I've also found that October snows have often, for whatever reason, led to mild winters. It may be coincidence but it always makes me nervous when it happens.

Hey CP good morning from your summer hibernation and welcome back to the board.  I did a quick search for you regarding Oct snow.  Now you didn't exactly specify what location you are correlating with Oct snowfall so I defaulted to CPK.  Here is what I found:

Since the 1868-69 winter season there have only been only 19 years with Oct snow recorded in central Park.

Here are all 19 years and their seasonal snow totals:
1876-77=40.4"
1925-26=32.4"
26-27=22.3"
28-29=13.8"
30-31=13.6"
34-35=33.8"
36-37=15.6"
37-38=15.1"
40-41=39"
44-45=27.1"
52-53=15.1"    
60-61=54.7"      
62-63=16.3"      
65-66=21.4"      
72-73=2.8"      
79-80=12.8"      
2000-01=35"    
02-03=49.3"    
11-12 =7.4"      
https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

Using the avg/normal of 25.1" per year in CPK and using a +/- of 3" still considered normal :  Statistically 47.4% of the time CPK measures Oct snow, the following winter season had normal to above normal snowfall.  Obv this means in this example that 52.6% of the time it received below normal.   For me this is close enough, given the small sample size of years with Oct snow in CPK relative to the total number of years evaluated, to say that in years where CPK records snow in Oct. there is about a 50/50 shot of above or below normal snowfall for the season making other climatological factors vitally important to predicting the seasons snowfall....in CPK

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:40 pm

sroc4 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
billg315 wrote:I'll put this in Banter since it is fantasy land stuff. But, it isn't inconsistent with the direction temperatures appear headed in the next couple of weeks. GFS around Monday, Oct.22 brings a strong cold front through, drops temps into the 30s, and blows up a storm off the New England coast bringing many in this region several hours of wrap-around snowfall. I post this less for any confidence of it panning out, and more because it is the first time this year I think a model has shown a substantial period of snow for our region -- so just a sign we are approaching go-time for the coming snow tracking season.
Saw that and recall 2011, its not impossible, that was a terribly damaging storm especially CT. I remember all the trees and branches falling all around me.  All it takes is exactly what you said a cold air source and a bombing out storm to create its own cold.  Why the heck not, the past 9 months have just been wild weather all over the US including here lets add a October snowstorm while we are at a it lol, yeah yeah I know some believe a abnormally early snowstorm means a quiet winter but IMO thats just coincidence.

I know personally in Orange County the October 29, 2011 storm was very damaging. We ended up with 16 inches of snow and I lost 4 tress in my yard from that storm, all bradford pears which just keep their leaves to long and couldn't stand the weight of the snow. NYC saw 2.9 inches that day which is their largest October snow since records have been kept.

I've also found that October snows have often, for whatever reason, led to mild winters. It may be coincidence but it always makes me nervous when it happens.

Hey CP good morning from your summer hibernation and welcome back to the board.  I did a quick search for you regarding Oct snow.  Now you didn't exactly specify what location you are correlating with Oct snowfall so I defaulted to CPK.  Here is what I found:

Since the 1868-69 winter season there have only been only 19 years with Oct snow recorded in central Park.

Here are all 19 years and their seasonal snow totals:
1876-77=40.4"
1925-26=32.4"
26-27=22.3"
28-29=13.8"
30-31=13.6"
34-35=33.8"
36-37=15.6"
37-38=15.1"
40-41=39"
44-45=27.1"
52-53=15.1"    
60-61=54.7"      
62-63=16.3"      
65-66=21.4"      
72-73=2.8"      
79-80=12.8"      
2000-01=35"    
02-03=49.3"    
11-12 =7.4"      
https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

Using the avg/normal of 25.1" per year in CPK and using a +/- of 3" still considered normal :  Statistically 47.4% of the time CPK measures Oct snow, the following winter season had normal to above normal snowfall.  Obv this means in this example that 52.6% of the time it received below normal.   For me this is close enough, given the small sample size of years with Oct snow in CPK relative to the total number of years evaluated, to say that in years where CPK records snow in Oct. there is about a 50/50 shot of above or below normal snowfall for the season making other climatological factors vitally important to predicting the seasons snowfall....in CPK

Hey Scott, thank for the welcome back:

If you're going back to 1870 when records started being kept the average snowfall in Central Park is 28.8 inches so that will change your stats a bit. Also the 30 year average is 25.8 right now (1981-2010) not 25.1 as first reported in Jan 2011. If you remember or maybe you don't, I finally got NOAA to admit their mistake and they did change the records in March 2014 to the correct figure of 25.8, (it's actually 25.9 but I gave up fighting for the last .1 of an inch).

On another note the new 30 year averages will be coming out in January 2021. Right now the Jan 1991 through October 2018 NYC average is 31.0 inches per season. Even if it doesn't snow from now through Dec 31, 2020 (which would be unprecedented) the new 30 year average would be 28.7.

My point forget the old averages, their meaningless and still carry totals from two of the most snow deprived decades in history.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:19 pm

docstox12 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
Here we go folks. The first fantasy snowfall map of the season. For entertainment purposes only! bananadude

Calling CP! Calling CP!

We should keep an unofficial total on these for the season Doc.

So right now we're at 18 inches and counting. I'll bet we top 300 inches easy if we total the top totals from each fantasy storm to pop up by next April.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by docstox12 on Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:25 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
Here we go folks. The first fantasy snowfall map of the season. For entertainment purposes only! bananadude

Calling CP! Calling CP!

We should keep an unofficial total on these for the season Doc.

So right now we're at 18 inches and counting. I'll bet we top 300 inches easy if we total the top totals from each fantasy storm to pop up by next April.

See why this site is sorely lacking without your feedbacks CP? What a wonderful statistical situation this will be, fantasy map snow predictions in our neck of the HV versus actual production.I am making a ledger right now and adding this 18 inches forthwith!Consult OTI for further comments on this matter.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:44 pm

I think these and some other Euro ensemble runs are about the WCS for next weekend, 966mb, 945mb right along coast.






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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:04 am

After completing 5 1/2 months of my regularly scheduled self imposed exile, 2 questions.

1. What happened to the like buttons I had lobbied for and Frank implemented last year?

2. Who is Cpcantmeasurerain ?
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:18 am

Hey Doc will be up in your neck of the woods tom...going to cold springs first time by car...hope leaves are turning color??!!
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by docstox12 on Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:25 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:Hey Doc will be up in your neck of the woods tom...going to cold springs first time by car...hope leaves are turning color??!!

Hi Mom.

Color is there but not as good as in other years.Lots of dull colors and lots of tress still green.This colder period the last few days goosed a few more trees into better color.

Cold Spring a great town to walk around.It's right on the Hudson River.Gonna be windy, tho, hold on to your hat,LOL.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:39 am

docstox12 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Hey Doc will be up in your neck of the woods tom...going to cold springs first time by car...hope leaves are turning color??!!

Hi Mom.

Color is there but not as good as in other years.Lots of dull colors and lots of tress still green.This colder period the last few days goosed a few more trees into better color.

Cold Spring a great town to walk around.It's right on the Hudson River.Gonna be windy, tho, hold on to your hat,LOL.
Tx for the foliage update! Same here...we have been many times to Cold Springs, but only by boat.what takes 2 hours by car takes 8 by boat.a little sad about the wind but going into shops should keep us warm! Smile
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by docstox12 on Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:06 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Hey Doc will be up in your neck of the woods tom...going to cold springs first time by car...hope leaves are turning color??!!

Hi Mom.

Color is there but not as good as in other years.Lots of dull colors and lots of tress still green.This colder period the last few days goosed a few more trees into better color.

Cold Spring a great town to walk around.It's right on the Hudson River.Gonna be windy, tho, hold on to your hat,LOL.
Tx for the foliage update! Same here...we have been many times to Cold Springs, but only by boat.what takes 2 hours by car takes 8 by boat.a little sad about the wind but going into shops should keep us warm! Smile

Mom, there is that classic old timey 5 and 10 type store that you can wander around in with all sorts of stuff! I'm sure you will be going in there,LOL.Great restaurant right by the river there.Hope you all have a great day!
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by dkodgis on Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:28 am

CP, CPcantmeasurerain is your nefarious twin.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:07 pm

I know this really belongs in the other banter thread but no one looks there lol, I was wondering how you figure out the size of a glove that the tags are cut, I found some very expensive gortex gloves that I am reselling but am not sure of their size. I know there are ways to measure but there must be a skier on here that would know well.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Oct 21, 2018 6:57 pm

docstox12 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Hey Doc will be up in your neck of the woods tom...going to cold springs first time by car...hope leaves are turning color??!!

Hi Mom.

Color is there but not as good as in other years.Lots of dull colors and lots of tress still green.This colder period the last few days goosed a few more trees into better color.

Cold Spring a great town to walk around.It's right on the Hudson River.Gonna be windy, tho, hold on to your hat,LOL.
Tx for the foliage update! Same here...we have been many times to Cold Springs, but only by boat.what takes 2 hours by car takes 8 by boat.a little sad about the wind but going into shops should keep us warm! Smile

Mom, there is that classic old timey 5 and 10 type store that you can wander around in with all sorts of stuff! I'm sure you will be going in there,LOL.Great restaurant right by the river there.Hope you all have a great day!

Hey Doc...what a great day!! windy and nippy..but really fun and a little hot chocolate helped.. We had a reservation for Hudson Hills Cafe..what a great place..farm to table. Fantastic food! Where in the shops, fun antique shops, and we love the Country Goose..the owner is hilarious! ok..on to weather it was partly sunny with winds around 20 mph from the north. We went down to the water and felt like you were going to blow away! You were right about the foliage, not much has changed yet..but a wonderful day was had!!
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by docstox12 on Mon Oct 22, 2018 5:33 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Hey Doc will be up in your neck of the woods tom...going to cold springs first time by car...hope leaves are turning color??!!

Hi Mom.

Color is there but not as good as in other years.Lots of dull colors and lots of tress still green.This colder period the last few days goosed a few more trees into better color.

Cold Spring a great town to walk around.It's right on the Hudson River.Gonna be windy, tho, hold on to your hat,LOL.
Tx for the foliage update! Same here...we have been many times to Cold Springs, but only by boat.what takes 2 hours by car takes 8 by boat.a little sad about the wind but going into shops should keep us warm! Smile

Mom, there is that classic old timey 5 and 10 type store that you can wander around in with all sorts of stuff! I'm sure you will be going in there,LOL.Great restaurant right by the river there.Hope you all have a great day!

Hey Doc...what a great day!! windy and nippy..but really fun and a little hot chocolate helped.. We had a reservation for Hudson Hills Cafe..what a great place..farm to table. Fantastic food! Where in the shops, fun antique shops, and we love the Country Goose..the owner is hilarious! ok..on to weather it was partly sunny with winds around 20 mph from the north. We went down to the water and felt like you were going to blow away! You were right about the foliage, not much has changed yet..but a wonderful day was had!!

Great to hear that Mom, glad you and the fam had a wonderful day.I like that town a lot.

Didn't get below freezing here this AM, clouds probably caused that.Looks like a real Fall week here temp wise.Just slight chance of showers, things can dry out before this possible event next weekend.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:26 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:After completing 5 1/2 months of my regularly scheduled self imposed exile, 2 questions.

1. What happened to the like buttons I had lobbied for and Frank implemented last year?

2. Who is Cpcantmeasurerain ?

1) I just activated it again. Not sure why it was turned off

2) He could be your brother

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by Grselig on Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:37 pm

Yes. The like button is back. Cp we need you.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by billg315 on Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I know this really belongs in the other banter thread but no one looks there lol, I was wondering how you figure out the size of a glove that the tags are cut, I found some very expensive gortex gloves that I am reselling but am not sure of their size.  I know there are ways to measure but there must be a skier on here that would know well.

I honestly don't know the answer to your question. But this is one of the most unique posts I've ever read on here. Smile
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:10 am

billg315 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I know this really belongs in the other banter thread but no one looks there lol, I was wondering how you figure out the size of a glove that the tags are cut, I found some very expensive gortex gloves that I am reselling but am not sure of their size.  I know there are ways to measure but there must be a skier on here that would know well.

I honestly don't know the answer to your question. But this is one of the most unique posts I've ever read on here. Smile

Unique in that it did not have the word wind in any sentences.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:13 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:After completing 5 1/2 months of my regularly scheduled self imposed exile, 2 questions.

1. What happened to the like buttons I had lobbied for and Frank implemented last year?

2. Who is Cpcantmeasurerain ?

1) I just activated it again. Not sure why it was turned off

2) He could be your brother

I would now like to request a laugh button for replies like the former.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:45 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
billg315 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I know this really belongs in the other banter thread but no one looks there lol, I was wondering how you figure out the size of a glove that the tags are cut, I found some very expensive gortex gloves that I am reselling but am not sure of their size.  I know there are ways to measure but there must be a skier on here that would know well.

I honestly don't know the answer to your question. But this is one of the most unique posts I've ever read on here. Smile

Unique in that it did not have the word wind in any sentences.
wind wind lol man you guys if I commented every time you said snow lol which I love more btw of course
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:30 am

jmanley32 wrote:I know this really belongs in the other banter thread but no one looks there lol, I was wondering how you figure out the size of a glove that the tags are cut, I found some very expensive gortex gloves that I am reselling but am not sure of their size.  I know there are ways to measure but there must be a skier on here that would know well.

JMan I was curious so I googled did not see anything useful..here are my suggestions take gloves to store and compare or measure your hand or if you know your glove size and estimate....good luck


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:28 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:49 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I know this really belongs in the other banter thread but no one looks there lol, I was wondering how you figure out the size of a glove that the tags are cut, I found some very expensive gortex gloves that I am reselling but am not sure of their size.  I know there are ways to measure but there must be a skier on here that would know well.
me too ya was gonna go sporting store they prolly know. Thanks

Man I was curious so I googled did not see anything useful..here are my suggestions take gloves to store and compare or measure your hand or if you know your glove size and estimate....good luck
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:03 pm


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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:09 pm


We need a Frankzilla this winter. Make it happen.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:52 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:

We need a Frankzilla this winter. Make it happen.
I feel we have a good shot at one this winter with the way everything seems to be setting up. We have a Modoki El Nino in the works, a western ridge coupled with an eastern trough, and expansive Canadian snowcover to name a few. The big wildcard this winter is the presence or lack of a -NAO. An above normal snowy winter is all but certain, but if the -NAO joins the party it will be an epic one.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

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