Wx Banter Thread 3.0

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:45 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:

We need a Frankzilla this winter. Make it happen.
I feel we have a good shot at one this winter with the way everything seems to be setting up. We have a Modoki El Nino in the works, a western ridge coupled with an eastern trough, and expansive Canadian snowcover to name a few. The big wildcard this winter is the presence or lack of a -NAO. An above normal snowy winter is all but certain, but if the -NAO joins the party it will be an epic one.

The Karents Sea Block is back in the Mid Range and it's is a precursor for NAO block as it is to transgressed east as it is forecasted to and could help a ssw event. The typhoon is to aid the jet extension from the Asian continent and pump the Aleutian LP and transfer heat poleward for a phase 2 wave to help weaken the Polar Vortex and hopefully dislodge it. Low solar is going to be a factor in this as well. Cosmic rays are causing the upper to now.mid levels of our atmosphere to become very cold as NASA has reported. What it's means to our sensible weather rremiaims to be seen but one aspect they are looking at is the jet stream flow and possibly the troposphere layer drastically cooling. Thisbwouldmpripogate me clouds reflecting sunlight thus cooling our air and increading precipitation and lower temos. 
This is all theoretical at this time like GW, yes that is theory not a science  proven law and those like Al Gore who made 10s of millions off this is a fraud. 

So let's see we were at 3 months from now.
Oh and book it big East coast storm Jan 19-21!!

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 3:35 pm

If today was anything to show what's to come for this winter I vote warm sunny no storms. I would seen breezy conditions and maybe 4 inches while places just north south east and west would seen over a foot. Seems my backyard is and was last year the screw zone. So I will b doing all I can to jinx any snowstorms ha I know I'm go get kicked for that one!!
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 3:38 pm

Just bought a new snow blower I don't even need and tons of snow gear. May be I need to go to oti. God knows I need help lol
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 3:39 pm

amugs wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:

We need a Frankzilla this winter. Make it happen.
I feel we have a good shot at one this winter with the way everything seems to be setting up. We have a Modoki El Nino in the works, a western ridge coupled with an eastern trough, and expansive Canadian snowcover to name a few. The big wildcard this winter is the presence or lack of a -NAO. An above normal snowy winter is all but certain, but if the -NAO joins the party it will be an epic one.

The Karents Sea Block is back in the Mid Range and it's is a precursor for NAO block as it is to transgressed east as it is forecasted to and could help a ssw event. The typhoon is to aid the jet extension from the Asian continent and pump the Aleutian LP and transfer heat poleward for a phase 2 wave to help weaken the Polar Vortex and hopefully dislodge it. Low solar is going to be a factor in this as well. Cosmic rays are causing the upper to now.mid levels of our atmosphere to become very cold as NASA has reported. What it's means to our sensible weather rremiaims to be seen but one aspect they are looking at is the jet stream flow and possibly the troposphere layer drastically cooling. Thisbwouldmpripogate me clouds reflecting sunlight thus cooling our air and increading precipitation and lower temos. 
This is all theoretical at this time like GW, yes that is theory not a science  proven law and those like Al Gore who made 10s of millions off this is a fraud. 

So let's see we were at 3 months from now.
Oh and book it big East coast storm Jan 19-21!!
how can u possibly predict that come on. And o vote no storms ha
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 3:41 pm

Fyi I'm half kidding around. But it really bites me my area just doesn't see any good storms and I mean like a 2 mile square radius outside of that all hell breaks loose.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 27, 2018 3:58 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:

We need a Frankzilla this winter. Make it happen.
I feel we have a good shot at one this winter with the way everything seems to be setting up. We have a Modoki El Nino in the works, a western ridge coupled with an eastern trough, and expansive Canadian snowcover to name a few. The big wildcard this winter is the presence or lack of a -NAO. An above normal snowy winter is all but certain, but if the -NAO joins the party it will be an epic one.

The Karents Sea Block is back in the Mid Range and it's is a precursor for NAO block as it is to transgressed east as it is forecasted to and could help a ssw event. The typhoon is to aid the jet extension from the Asian continent and pump the Aleutian LP and transfer heat poleward for a phase 2 wave to help weaken the Polar Vortex and hopefully dislodge it. Low solar is going to be a factor in this as well. Cosmic rays are causing the upper to now.mid levels of our atmosphere to become very cold as NASA has reported. What it's means to our sensible weather rremiaims to be seen but one aspect they are looking at is the jet stream flow and possibly the troposphere layer drastically cooling. Thisbwouldmpripogate me clouds reflecting sunlight thus cooling our air and increading precipitation and lower temos. 
This is all theoretical at this time like GW, yes that is theory not a science  proven law and those like Al Gore who made 10s of millions off this is a fraud. 

So let's see we were at 3 months from now.
Oh and book it big East coast storm Jan 19-21!!
how can u possibly predict that come on. And o vote no storms ha

It comes from Jim Witt a very well know Pro Met who makes LR storm predictions weelllll in advance using celestial alignments. He called many storms due to these cycles and they happen not the same but they happen as per the cycle. Mother Nature the more you read and research use analogs for when these cycles are the same, storms are going to re occur. Some worse some not. That is how it works.
Two dont doubt the call!! alien

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 5:47 pm

That makes sense, My job is all data driven scientific teaching methods so its similar in a way.  Yes analogs can repeat.  Then again JB does the same thing and look how often he is wrong.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:30 am

6 years ago today we were preparing for Super Storm Sandy...I am grateful every day for the floodgates that saved our little area in Hazlet NJ...sorry that some people have still not recovered from that fateful day... https://www.nj.gov/dep/shoreprotection/bayshore.htm

This video is a reminder of what happened that day..and a little fyi that house was the only one standing after the storm..This house is on the Raritan Bay in Union Beach...they filmed from the 3rd floor and this was not even at the height of the storm.(several hours before high tide) So you can use your imagination of what it was like at 10 pm when the worst  of the surge was happening..our flood gates recorded a 15 foot surge..1 foot over the capacity is was built to handle..but she held.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ady9mc7fdTU

https://www.nj.com/monmouth/index.ssf/2013/10/iconic_hurricane_sandy_image_still_brings_pride_pain_to_union_beach_man.html

this is all a 15 minute walk from my house...
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by sabamfa on Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:38 am

Mom, have those people given an account anywhere of what it was like being in that house during the height of the storm? I can't even imagine.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:22 pm

sabamfa wrote:Mom, have those people given an account anywhere of what it was like being in that house during the height of the storm? I can't even imagine.
no I never found anything and I was tempted to knock on their door ...lol. I can not imagine how terrifying it was for them. they were under mandatory evacuations in UB .I know how terrifying it was for us..we live right on Thorn Creek that goes out to the bay thru the flood gates. (walking from my house to theirs is about a 15 minute walk)They told us to shelter in place. until late in the day when they had second thoughts and told us all we should leave..not mandatory.. but too late by then..roads already flooded, power out, shelters full, family and hour away.we stayed along with our neighbors .I was so frightened...but as that day wore on ..there was not a lot of rain...some wind..we lost our power around 1 pm....we moved everything up to second floor.(our house has a higher elevation....) our survival kit, tools, food, generator and any valuables from the main floor and waited it out. Our creek was drained by the pump station. there was no water you could walk across the creek the gates were closed and keeping water out...at about 10 pm when the worst of the storm was ripping apart Union Beach and Keansburg..towns on either side of us. we could see that the gates were holding but then ..that is when all hell broke loose there was a breach in one of the dunes next to the flood gates and water started flooding our street and winds were around 90 mph and the creek and wetlands flooded within a matter of minutes...water came half way up our property in the front raging down our street...and our dock in the back looked higher than the land..and water came half way up property in back...it was frightening..and we were hearing that there were rescues needed in Union Beach on our radio..our son was 8 at the time and thank goodness slept thru it all!!! I will never forget that night and the scene we saw the next morning when it was all over....Our little bubble of 12 streets by 6 streets wide was the only area that was on the water that was not damaged...the rest looked like a war zone..I will never forget....and hopefully will never have to live thru anything like that again...
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by sabamfa on Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:34 pm

Wow. We were living inland at the time (Wayne, near Paterson), so no fears of storm surge. I can't even imagine how scary it would be to have to worry about that. Truly terrifying. Very glad you made it out OK and that your kiddo slept through the whole thing!

We had it very bad with the winds. Lots of trees down all around us, telephone poles, etc. One pole came down and the live wires were sparking and sizzling and just nuts in my neighbor's yard....right next to a piece of construction equipment filled with gasoline. We thought our house was on fire at one point. Just sat up in the living room with our pets all night, terrified, hoping a tree wasn't going to fall on our house. I agree with you - I never want to have to go through that again. I can't imagine dealing with that PLUS flooding.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by docstox12 on Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:36 pm

The good Lord was watching over you and your neighbors Mom, on that small area that was preserved.Terrifying video of that house on the beach.Can't imagine the terror of the folks down the shore, but I will tell you up in the area I lived in ,Mahwah NJ, I had many 100 foot plus trees near the house.The sound of those gusts, 80 plus MPH through them, forced me into the basement sitting in a corner surrounded by concrete block walls getting drunk.In the 35 years I lived there, this was the only time I was scared to death.Power was out 8 days after that, a nightmare in itself.Let's hope that was a 100 year storm so we all never have to experience that again.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:10 pm

docstox12 wrote:The good Lord was watching over you and your neighbors Mom, on that small area that was preserved.Terrifying video of that house on the beach.Can't imagine the terror of the folks down the shore, but I will tell you up in the area I lived in ,Mahwah NJ, I had many 100 foot plus trees near the house.The sound of those gusts, 80 plus MPH through them, forced me into the basement sitting in a corner surrounded by concrete block walls getting drunk.In the 35 years I lived there, this was the only time I was scared to death.Power was out 8 days after that, a nightmare in itself.Let's hope that was a 100 year storm so we all never have to experience that again.

I lost a fence and siding. Was without power for 13 days. The north shore of LI is very densely wooded. The amount of tree damage was incredible ad there was a NWS confirmed tornado on my block 3 houses away.
Here’s where I disagree with most I WANT THAT TYPE OF STORM AGAIN AND SOON
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by frank 638 on Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:53 pm

6 years ago from today is where we had superstorm Sandy that changed our lives . I remember 7online Bill Evans had his own chat line and everyone was going crazy how dangerous the storm was. I would never forget how loud and how strong and powerful the winds were and my area got flooded because of high tide . My area lost power for a week I know I should be complaining because I'm pretty sure many people lost power for months or weeks and some people lost their homes especially the rockaways where look like a fire bomb went off due to the fire and the Jersey Shore and Long Island and Connecticut Shores got beaten as well. I don't know if we will ever have a storm like that again hopefully not but it's amazing how climate change is really happening

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Oct 29, 2018 8:50 pm

frank 638 wrote:6 years ago from today is where we had superstorm Sandy that changed our lives . I remember 7online Bill Evans had his own chat line and everyone was going crazy how dangerous the storm was. I would never forget how loud and how strong and powerful the winds were and my area got flooded because of high tide . My area lost power for a week I know I should be complaining because I'm pretty sure many people lost power for months or weeks and some people lost their homes especially the rockaways where look like a fire bomb went off due to the fire and the Jersey Shore and Long Island and Connecticut Shores got beaten as well. I don't know if we will ever have a storm like that again hopefully not but it's amazing how climate change is really happening

A very powerful storm hits the coast in one of the most densely populated areas of the United States in the perfect spot to cause the most damage and its CLIMATE CHANGE? Cmon. It’s just bad luck. Was bound to happen at some point glad I was here to see it. But Climate Change? Seriously
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:07 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:6 years ago from today is where we had superstorm Sandy that changed our lives . I remember 7online Bill Evans had his own chat line and everyone was going crazy how dangerous the storm was. I would never forget how loud and how strong and powerful the winds were and my area got flooded because of high tide . My area lost power for a week I know I should be complaining because I'm pretty sure many people lost power for months or weeks and some people lost their homes especially the rockaways where look like a fire bomb went off due to the fire and the Jersey Shore and Long Island and Connecticut Shores got beaten as well. I don't know if we will ever have a storm like that again hopefully not but it's amazing how climate change is really happening

A very powerful storm  hits the coast in one of the most densely populated areas of the United States in the perfect spot to cause the most damage and its CLIMATE CHANGE?  Cmon. It’s just bad luck. Was bound to happen at some point glad I was here to see it. But Climate Change? Seriously

The climate has been changing for millions of years. The climate change we are experiencing isn’t any different. So climate change really is happening. The globe has been in a warming period for over 100yrs.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by amugs on Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:19 pm

1903 a CAT 2 hit Cape May NJ and ran up the Delaware, today that would be greater than a Sandy in terms of Damage  from its track up the coast from VA,  would have had a severe to destructive storm surge from Norfolk up to LI. The coast of Jersey was transformed back then but who lived in this region - no one. Look these storms have happened before, 1800s there were 3 I believe and in the 1700s there were a few as well to impact the area. It is a natural cycle and they will happen again. 
Anyway, terrifying storm for many and I remember the howling winds and watching the steel 75 light poles at the park by my home swaying like trees. Listening to the radio the next day and hearing how city was basically cut off due to the massive flooding. My sister living on West 23rd between 9th and 10th avenues texting me saying the river was up to 10th and rising, her basement was under water and the building was vibrating at times, winds and flooding I guess caused such vibrations. 
Friends who hunkered down at the shore in Lake Como and Belmar feared for their life even though I pleaded with them to get the hell out. My partner at work did the most stupid move, disobeyed the closure of the GSP south of the Driscoll Bridge so he could protect his house and save his wave runner in Brick on a lagoon. At 9PM that night all communication was lost and he feared for his life as the storm surge hit. His house is 4'above the lagoon and his house had 6"of water on the first floor. He lost his boat, brand new BMW car, wave runner floated away with his dock and almost his life. He vowed never to do it again, you think?? Man is stupid and doesn't respect Natures power until she unleashes it on him, then he cries uncle.


Last edited by amugs on Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:22 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:56 am

Scott my point is the earth over millions of years has had cold periods and warm periods.  It’s natural cycles. Therefore we are bound to get cooler at some point in the future. I’m not trying to offend anyone but To attribute it to global warming or humankind IMHO is ignorance
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by sroc4 on Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:50 am

syosnow94 wrote:Scott my point is the earth over millions of years has had cold periods and warm periods.  It’s natural cycles. Therefore we are bound to get cooler at some point in the future. I’m not trying to offend anyone but To attribute it to global warming or humankind IMHO is ignorance

Trust me Im on your side, but global warming is real.  Its just the cause of it that those who simply take what the "mainstream" consensus is don't fully understand..yet.  Its not the laymens fault though.  When something is rammed down your throat at every turn eventually you give in and eat it up.  The truth to the climate will reveal itself regardless of what us silly humans say or do.  The biggest problem I see is people in general have a hard time thinking on a bigger time scale.  We live in a world of hours, days, months and years specifically defined by man.  In todays world of technology its even a smaller scale.  We want things now in minutes and seconds.  The earth and the many natural cycles in the oceans as well as trophospheric, stratospheric, heliospheric levels, as well as the natural well know sun cycles are only recently being looked at and understood.  These things are on scales of years, decades, and centuries and even larger scales.  With each year that goes by more are realizing that there is WAY more to the earths climate than man made CO2 emissions that have only occurred for the past 75-85yrs.  

Again it boils down to being able to wrap your head around a diff type of time scale.  That said dont be a fool to think we dont influence our planet at all; however, because we absolutely do.  We have been and will cont to pollute our planet and our CO2 emissions contribute to the overall big picture warmth to the globe that is happening.  But again we do not control the overall thermostat.  Its like we live in a house with the thermostat set on 75* but we also have turned on a small space heater.  The space heater is def contributing to the overall temp of the house; likely bringing the temp higher than the set temp of 75*, esp the room its in.
However; when the thermostat gets reset to a lower temp, while the space heater will still contribute to warmth in the room its in, the majority of the house will fall to the set thermostat and the house will cool once again.  We contribute, but we are not in control.  

As far as what Frank said above I dont see him using man made global warming in his statement at all, so I have no problem with his comment.


Last edited by sroc4 on Fri Nov 02, 2018 6:53 am; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by sroc4 on Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:06 am

Another HUGE problem with the climate debate is it has been politicized. If you believe in man made global warming your a democrat; if you don't your a republican. This MUST be removed from the equation because it polarizes the debate which leads to an answer much further from the real truth.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by dkodgis on Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:26 pm

On a lighter note, I see more rain Wed evening into Friday evening. How much more rain can the earth take before we start seeing trees keeling over?
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by amugs on Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:32 pm

GW or lack thereof is a polarizing topic that has been politicized to the uptenth degree and politicians like Al Gore have made 10's of millions of dollars on. Being taught as it is in schools is upsetting because it is slanted IMO and doesn't show both sides so the kids can make up their minds on where they stand.i have this argument all the time in my building and they blame every frickin storm on GW, drives me nuts. This planet has seen some extremely warm periods and extremely cold periods. Were are in an interglacial period of time and from LOTS of research on the sun and planetary or galactic alignment has a profound effect on our spaceship - yes we are and folks can't get there heads around this idea that we are floating on massive geomagnetic rock through space on an orbital path each day. The solar cycles have and will continue to affect our planet - for god's sake its our Joshua Tree of life (Sun) - wout it we don't exist. I read from a Swiss climatologist that if 5% of the atmosphere were to collapse on this planet due to the suspension of irradiation or cosmic rays over a short period of time say a few months - the mid latitudes and North planet would be sent into one massive polar vortex cold spell that would be a stark and life threatening time period for many reaching down the to tropical region (much colder than normal). And why teh food and energy supply would be at high risk. I am not saying it will happen but the fact that it has such dramatic effects is my point.
Look we are heading into a solar minimum in sun cycle 25 - arguments or discussions over whether it has started or not to be clarified but the fact is when the sun goes static as such with no sun spots to heat our atmosphere we go into a cold period. We are coming out of a very active solar cycle period that heats up the mass bodies of saltwater (oceans) and then releases this potential heat into the atmosphere as water vapor. It takes time for this heat to dissipate since the feedback cycle needs to be augmented in some way shape or form. We are starting see these effects IMO now. How do I see it well Greenland and parts of Europe, North and South America's, Middle East, Africa and Asia are seeing these colder effects as they have seen record breaking cold and snows. It is the start peeps and where this will go will find out. Low solar, low irradiance causes more cloud formations thus reflecting the sun heat > cooling the oceans and in return the lands > causing more precipitation thus cooler temperatures. More rains and snows overall and more cloudy days. As Scott said this doesn't happen overnight but it takes time - it is a cycle. Sun cycles last for 11 years and the first research documented was by my Italian ancestor - Galileo!!S o where will be be in 2028? I know I'll be retired (hopefully) from teaching, relocating from my present home (again hopefully), playing with Grandchildren and looking back at what was a cold and snowy period of time (HOPEFULLY!).

Now back to our sensible weather!!!

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Nov 01, 2018 6:18 pm

Thank you all for keeping the GW discussion civil Smile

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by docstox12 on Fri Nov 02, 2018 5:34 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Thank you all for keeping the GW discussion civil Smile

I enjoyed the discussion very much and I admire everyone taking part for having a logical, rational, scientific attitude in this matter, something that is sorely lacking if you dare to bring the topic up in mixed company these days.

Finally getting some good fall color albeit very late.Leaves coming down at a good rate here.This high wind watch on Saturday should bring a lot more down.I am liking that long range outlook the crew have posted for late November through December.Clocks go back this weekend, here we go.........
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by dkodgis on Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:16 am

Doc, 60 days until the first day of winter. CP, get the ode ready.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

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