Wx Banter Thread 3.0

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by Math23x7 on Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:57 pm

This is just my opinion but I think all of this ties into the reverse psychology effect. It seems to be the models that verify are the ones forecasters tend to dismiss. In the case of overperformers like today, the HRRR and EURO were very bullish on this snow here in NYC. I had a difficult time grasping it though because of the failures by them in the past.

Take the HRRR: Had it been right leading up to "Stella" (3/14/17), NYC would not have changed over to sleet until around 10 AM and would have easily had a Godzilla....it changed over around 6 AM and had 7.6".

Take the EURO: Also from Stella, had it been right a couple of days out, NYC would have been almost all snow with well over a foot.

Another example of tossing a model is from the 1/23/16 Roidzilla. A lot of people, myself included, thought it was crazy showing high amounts of snow because of how ridiculous it was with past systems. Had it verified with "Nemo" (February 2013). Portions of eastern New England would have had over six FEET of snow from it. And had the NAM verified with "Juno" (1/26/15), I would have had well over 3 FEET of snow back in Bellerose (I ended up with 13").

To all those on here who are traveling or have a friend/relative traveling in the snow/ice, I hope you all get home safely. I did not think NYC would have 6"+ from this. As I was watching the snow blasting in my office in Midtown Manhattan, I was very perplexed.

But on a snow lover side, that's a significant snowstorm right off the bat. If the Greenland block sets up as shown, things could get interesting in December,

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by billg315 on Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:20 am

All I’ll say is that Murphy and DeBlasio are two of the biggest global warming, er, sorry, “climate change!” (As if the climate has ever NOT changed) blow-hards in the full chorus of climate extremist blowhards and they couldn’t even salt let alone plow roads in their jurisdictions with a storm that (while overperforming) was always forecast to bring accumulating snow, sleet and ice, days in advance and that always had some models showing a potential for heavier snows. Maybe they could at least apply all the “better safe than sorry” precautions they want for 50 year climate forecasts to 50-hour weather forecasts as well.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:55 am

billg315 wrote:All I’ll say is that Murphy and DeBlasio are two of the biggest global warming, er, sorry, “climate change!” (As if the climate has ever NOT changed) blow-hards in the full chorus of climate extremist blowhards and they couldn’t even salt let alone plow roads in their jurisdictions with a storm that (while overperforming) was always forecast to bring accumulating snow, sleet and ice, days in advance and that always had some models showing a potential for heavier snows. Maybe they could at least apply all the “better safe than sorry” precautions they want for 50 year climate forecasts to 50-hour weather forecasts as well.

They’re too busy looking to bring more people into the area illegally and continue their two year Trump temper tantrum to even do their jobs. As I said last night if we knew about this 6-8 hours ahead they should have had plenty of time.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by sroc4 on Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:35 am

Even Bernie served himself a slice of humble pie for this last storm.  Again the strength and source of the cold was more than I was willing to believe.  Even when I woke up and looked at how low the dew points were around the region I still believed the warm air surge would win out given the time of year.   Im still kicking myself.




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"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 3.00" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3"
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by dkodgis on Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:15 am

On the lighter side of things, cleaning half of the driveway gave me a chance to reward myself with a beer run and finally I found a decent Pilsner. I notice Thanksgiving Day (happy and a healthy to all) looks much colder than we have seen in a while...with a high of what...about 36?
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:42 am

I love cold Thanksgiving! Looking for a nice cold week!

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by docstox12 on Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:20 am

dkodgis wrote:On the lighter side of things, cleaning half of the driveway gave me a chance to reward myself with a beer run and finally I found a decent Pilsner.  I notice Thanksgiving Day (happy and a healthy to all) looks much colder than we have seen in a while...with a high of what...about 36?

You have proven once again the old adage, "when life hands you lemons, make lemonade" is alive and well Damian!

And, yes I agree with Janet, love a cold Thanksgiving with snow on the ground.Gets you into the spirit for sure.Hoping for a cold and snowy December, and as rb mentioned in his post, perhaps this recent storm is a "pattern setter", because it was a beauty.A storm up from the Gulf with super cold air in place.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:58 am

docstox12 wrote:
dkodgis wrote:On the lighter side of things, cleaning half of the driveway gave me a chance to reward myself with a beer run and finally I found a decent Pilsner.  I notice Thanksgiving Day (happy and a healthy to all) looks much colder than we have seen in a while...with a high of what...about 36?

You have proven once again the old adage, "when life hands you lemons, make lemonade" is alive and well Damian!

And, yes I agree with Janet, love a cold Thanksgiving with snow on the ground.Gets you into the spirit for sure.Hoping for a cold and snowy December, and as rb mentioned in his post, perhaps this recent storm is a "pattern setter", because it was a beauty.A storm up from the Gulf with super cold air in place.

I agree with all of you 1000%.

Thanksgiving 2014, which I believe was Doc's first Thanksgiving living in Monroe, we had 9.4 inches of snow Thanksgiving eve night and I believe a lot of NNJ also had a white Thanksgiving that year, other than that happening on Christmas Eve that is one of lifes great joys. Thanksgiving morning looked like a hallmark card. It just changes my overall mood looking outside now at a snow covered landscape.

A good weekend to all.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by docstox12 on Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:32 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
dkodgis wrote:On the lighter side of things, cleaning half of the driveway gave me a chance to reward myself with a beer run and finally I found a decent Pilsner.  I notice Thanksgiving Day (happy and a healthy to all) looks much colder than we have seen in a while...with a high of what...about 36?

You have proven once again the old adage, "when life hands you lemons, make lemonade" is alive and well Damian!

And, yes I agree with Janet, love a cold Thanksgiving with snow on the ground.Gets you into the spirit for sure.Hoping for a cold and snowy December, and as rb mentioned in his post, perhaps this recent storm is a "pattern setter", because it was a beauty.A storm up from the Gulf with super cold air in place.

I agree with all of you 1000%.

Thanksgiving 2014, which I believe was Doc's first Thanksgiving living in Monroe, we had 9.4 inches of snow Thanksgiving eve night and I believe a lot of NNJ also had a white Thanksgiving that year, other than that happening on Christmas Eve that is one of lifes great joys. Thanksgiving morning looked like a hallmark card. It just changes my overall mood looking outside now at a snow covered landscape.

A good weekend to all.

Yes, CP, that Thanksgiving of 2014, my first as a HV resident , was magical! Driving to my Mom's that morning was Hallmark Card worthy.That sentiment of a snowy Thanksgiving being one of life's great joys is something I agree with 100%.Now, let's get all of us on the board area a White Christmas this year.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by amugs on Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:46 am

Top Analog years drool worthy!






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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by frank 638 on Sun Nov 18, 2018 12:25 pm

amugs thanks for the post you put up .lets hope this winter will be the best winter to

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by algae888 on Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:52 pm

Just got off the Bronx River Parkway the roads are pre salted and treated for a chance of snow flurries and snow showers this afternoon LOL
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:00 pm

algae888 wrote:Just got off the Bronx River Parkway the roads are pre salted and treated for a chance of snow flurries and snow showers this afternoon LOL
Coated? More like buried, I can see the next crisis....no salt or sand left by January. I also saw more plows in 1 hour than I saw the entire day on the 15th, lol but not really that day will be a story I tell my grandkids.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Nov 22, 2018 10:32 am

HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO MY WEATHER FAMILY (or Native American genocide day as some of my colleagues said to our students yesterday god help me) WISHING YOU ALL A GREAT DAY AND HAPPY HOLIDAY SEASON WITH MANY SNOWSTORMS TO TRACK.



Ps. Al you should be banned for giving us hope of a 95/96 winter. Blasphemy
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by dkodgis on Sat Nov 24, 2018 8:46 am

Scott, is that a pellet stove?

Here is a sort of related weather banter question. Should I go for a two stage or three stage snow blower. I want no bogging down and some muscle. What say you all?
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by amugs on Sat Nov 24, 2018 9:41 am

syosnow94 wrote:HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO MY WEATHER FAMILY (or Native American genocide day as some of my colleagues said to our students yesterday god help me) WISHING YOU ALL A GREAT DAY AND HAPPY HOLIDAY SEASON WITH MANY SNOWSTORMS TO TRACK.



Ps. Al you should be banned for giving us hope of a 95/96 winter. Blasphemy

LOL - I know but we must remember that tehre where tow distinct warm periods in early December and mid January after the great Blizzard of '96 that produced two driving rainstorms and a massive thaw. Then the pattern reloaded and took us through mid March.

Can't folks realize we had nothing to do with the Puritans and what man did 300 years ago plus??? If that is the case then no holiday should be celebrated because we can find fault with all if we want - Washington, Jefferson - had slaves, slept around, iligit kids, MLK - womanizer and adulterous, JFK - the same, Lincoln - manic depressive, cross dresser, allowed North suppression and destruction of our own people i.e. Sherman's March to the Sea for example. Not getting into this but common we can find fault with each person each event on how we want to look at it.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by dkodgis on Sat Nov 24, 2018 9:57 am

On earth, there are no saints. Only flakes. The shoveling kind
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by docstox12 on Sat Nov 24, 2018 11:19 am

amugs wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO MY WEATHER FAMILY (or Native American genocide day as some of my colleagues said to our students yesterday god help me) WISHING YOU ALL A GREAT DAY AND HAPPY HOLIDAY SEASON WITH MANY SNOWSTORMS TO TRACK.



Ps. Al you should be banned for giving us hope of a 95/96 winter. Blasphemy

LOL - I know but we must remember that tehre where tow distinct warm periods in early December and mid January after the great Blizzard of '96 that produced two driving rainstorms and a massive thaw. Then the pattern reloaded and took us through mid March.

Can't folks realize we had nothing to do with the Puritans and what man did 300 years ago plus??? If that is the case then no holiday should be celebrated because we can find fault with all if we want  - Washington, Jefferson - had slaves, slept around, iligit kids, MLK - womanizer and adulterous, JFK - the same,  Lincoln - manic depressive, cross dresser, allowed North suppression and destruction of our own people i.e. Sherman's March to the Sea for example. Not getting into this but common we can find fault with each person each event on how we want to look at it.

Yes, Mugsy, that Blizzard of 1996 was followed a few days later by another snowstorm that dumped around 9 or 10 inches before it turned into a soaking rainstorm.I had 4 feet on the level and remembered how it stunk having it change to rain!

Agree 100% on your history analysis.I do extensive studies on the French and Indian War and the Revolutionary War and would like Jimmy to tell his colleagues that the "Indiginous Peoples" committed more atrocities not only on each other, but also on the white Settlers ( Pequot and King Phillips War).Saying that today would make me a racist in that circle but History is FACT that can't be changed.Nobody is all good and nobody is all bad, case closed.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by amugs on Sat Nov 24, 2018 4:34 pm

Da Dactor had spoken peeps!!

Very Happy

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:21 am

I would never want to be in charge of making the call of what to do to prepare for a weather storm...lol

look at the predictions
https://www.nj.com/expo/news/erry-2018/11/d0d1a865d44297/nj-weather-snow-predictions-fr.html
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:58 am


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 3.00" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3"
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Nov 26, 2018 12:10 pm

sroc4 wrote:

Ha Ha....so boring just rain and gloom....need some SNOW!!!
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by algae888 on Wed Nov 28, 2018 5:57 pm

I've been a little perplexed with why our board is so quiet with several snow chances coming as soon as Friday and  definitely within the 10-day. The conclusion I've come up with is that basically most of us could care less about 1 to 3 / 2 to 4 / 3 to 6 in snow falls.  we're looking for the Big Kahuna if it's not going to drop a foot or more of snow most people aren't interested anymore. And I think the reason why is because we've been spoiled since 2010 with the number of 1 foot plus snow falls that we've seen here in the New York metro area. Living through the 70s 80s and 90s I would die for any snow. I can probably count on one hand or maybe two the number of one foot or more snow falls we received 1978 1987 1994 and 1996 come to mind I don't think there were any other years in those three decades thata single storm produced a foot or more of snow during the winter season . anyway back to tracking let's see what that day 10 storm is going to do on the 18z gf s
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by mwilli5783 on Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:06 pm

when i hear the words mecs,godzilla,megagozilla and madonnne..then i get psyched up otherwise i'll taking a wait and see approach for dec 6 period

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:01 pm

I really really do not want a snowstorm on the 8th or 9th, night of 9th and day 10th would be great. Thanks a bunch lol\\

6th and 7th will be fine too, though after 2 snow days I start to lose my spring vacation so that wont be too fun. Cannot bank on booking flight tickets with what looks like a active winter.
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