March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

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March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:05 pm

The EURO closes off H5 around the 40/70 BM



The NAM closes off H5 around the 40/70 BM



The GFS? The GFS does not close off H5 until it's north of the 40/70 BM. By that point, the best dynamics that come with this system have already occured. The models that show the most extreme scenario have this comes together perfectly:

1) Primary in the Great Lakes stays weaker allowing heights not to get too amplified along the east coast

2) Transfer happens off the coast and a rapidly strengthening low pressure system tracks to the 40/70 BM (+/- 20 miles east or west)

3) H5 closes off, 850 mb temps crash, and 700mb vertical velocity explodes (very high snowfall rates per hour when VV's are intense)

The GFS is not following these steps - so - it introduces warm air advection and keeps mixing a concern for immediate coast.



Notice how cold the NAM keeps us at the height of the storm



The RGEM is in the NAM/EURO camp (GFS mainly on its own) but has some of the most impressive H7 VV's I've seen. This would be 3-4" per hour rates.





I am impressed with what I am seeing from the short range models. NAM, RGEM, Hi-Res and even the EURO/NAVGEM/GGEM show a very powerful Godzilla type storm bringing 30-40+mph winds and nearly 12" of snow over a widespread area. Here is my 1st call snow map:



This may be on the high-end at this juncture, but I am feeling confident and truly like the evolution of this storm. I will adjust tomorrow if necessary.

8:45pm chat tonight for 00z NAM! Hope to see you all there.

Ciao for now!

Francesco

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2017-2018: 35"

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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by DAYBLAZER on Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:12 pm

Thank you Frank. I just want to say your insights (as well as others on this board) have been absolutely critical to me over the past 72 hours.

I have a generator currently running which is powering a few space heaters in my house as well as my internet and cable. SO I should be able to stay with you guys on this one. No power expected back until Wednesday but now I'm seeing a 12-16 inch snowfall potential up here in Hopatcong....can't believe I'm saying this but I'm kind of hoping that we somehow miss out on the heaviest totals up here. This area is really suffering right now. It looks like we are right on the line of 6-10 or 10-14+.... not good either way as our infrastructure up here is already extremely damaged.
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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:12 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The EURO closes off H5 around the 40/70 BM



The NAM closes off H5 around the 40/70 BM



The GFS? The GFS does not close off H5 until it's north of the 40/70 BM. By that point, the best dynamics that come with this system have already occured. The models that show the most extreme scenario have this comes together perfectly:

1) Primary in the Great Lakes stays weaker allowing heights not to get too amplified along the east coast

2) Transfer happens off the coast and a rapidly strengthening low pressure system tracks to the 40/70 BM (+/- 20 miles east or west)

3) H5 closes off, 850 mb temps crash, and 700mb vertical velocity explodes (very high snowfall rates per hour when VV's are intense)

The GFS is not following these steps - so - it introduces warm air advection and keeps mixing a concern for immediate coast.



Notice how cold the NAM keeps us at the height of the storm



The RGEM is in the NAM/EURO camp (GFS mainly on its own) but has some of the most impressive H7 VV's I've seen. This would be 3-4" per hour rates.





I am impressed with what I am seeing from the short range models. NAM, RGEM, Hi-Res and even the EURO/NAVGEM/GGEM show a very powerful Godzilla type storm bringing 30-40+mph winds and nearly 12" of snow over a widespread area. Here is my 1st call snow map:



This may be on the high-end at this juncture, but I am feeling confident and truly like the evolution of this storm. I will adjust tomorrow if necessary.

8:45pm chat tonight for 00z NAM! Hope to see you all there.

Ciao for now!

Francesco
sweet do u see b word potential here for the coast or those are gusts? I agree and likey your map. Of course if you need to up totals please do so lol. If we do get rates of 3 to 4 per hr then I can see the above 14 verifying where those vv setup.
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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by frank 638 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:18 pm

Frank you are the man thank you for your post and map you put up we deserve this

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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:19 pm

My accuwx says 63 mph winds wed night. Ya no I highly doubt that. Anyone recommend a better app? Their radar half time is blank too.
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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by mikeypizano on Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:22 pm

I still hope it goes west...
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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by nutleyblizzard on Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:47 pm

Good snowfall map Frank. With all the traffic in the Atlantic, I'm hoping the storm gets held up more then what the models currently show now once it reaches our latitude.
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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:57 pm

Frank after seeing your map and your confidence level if I was gay or lived close enough to you I would kiss you
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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by mikeypizano on Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:04 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Frank after seeing your map and your confidence level if I was gay or lived close enough to you I would kiss you

Why let that stop you?
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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:04 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Frank after seeing your map and your confidence level if I was gay or lived close enough to you I would kiss you
lmao
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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by docstox12 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:06 pm

Great job Frank! We will have a blast on Wednesday on the board.Really looking forward to it! I'll be on from beginning to end.
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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by nutleyblizzard on Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:14 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Frank after seeing your map and your confidence level if I was gay or lived close enough to you I would kiss you
takenback
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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by SoulSingMG on Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:25 pm

LET IT BE KNOWN, KIDS! Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy


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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:32 pm

I was emboldened by Syos to give this a try with limited art skills. Pardon some of the imperfections but you'll get the point.
Green: Mostly rain. Some change to snow possible at very end of storm but little if any accumulation.
Purple: Rain and Snow mixing in the early part of the storm. Will eventually go to all snow, but the early mixing issues will keep totals in check. 3-6"
Blue: Mostly snow. Some rain might mix right on border with pink but this is a solid snow event. 6-10"
Brown (was supposed to be orange :-/ ): All Snow and heavy at times. Jackpot zone. 10-15"
(p.s. It took forever to do this so I did not see Frank's map beforehand. Looks like we are a little different in some spots, but not too far off)
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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:36 pm

Great minds think alike. Nice map Bill.

Yours is a nice blend of the GFS/NAM/EURO whereas with mine I am basically completely tossing the GFS.

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2017-2018: 35"

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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:39 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:LET IT BE KNOWN, KIDS!  Very Happy  Very Happy  Very Happy


cool, hope true
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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:40 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Great minds think alike. Nice map Bill.

Yours is a nice blend of the GFS/NAM/EURO whereas with mine I am basically completely tossing the GFS.

Thanks Frank. Man that gave me an appreciation for what you guys go through creating those maps. Yeah, I hedged a bit because I wanted to account for the GFS which is a little closer to the coast. That may be a mistake. We'll see.
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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:49 pm

billg315 wrote:I was emboldened by Syos to give this a try with limited art skills. Pardon some of the imperfections but you'll get the point.
Green: Mostly rain. Some change to snow possible at very end of storm but little if any accumulation.
Purple: Rain and Snow mixing in the early part of the storm. Will eventually go to all snow, but the early mixing issues will keep totals in check. 3-6"
Blue: Mostly snow. Some rain might mix right on border with pink but this is a solid snow event. 6-10"
Brown (was supposed to be orange :-/ ): All Snow and heavy at times. Jackpot zone. 10-15"
(p.s. It took forever to do this so I did not see Frank's map beforehand. Looks like we are a little different in some spots, but not too far off)

Just like all the other jokesters on here you put my house exactly on the border of the mix line. Nice job
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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:56 pm

lol. Well syos, I have you in a better spot than I have sroc.
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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:03 pm

Would love a Cliffs Notes version of the chat once it wraps up.
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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by MattyICE on Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:29 pm

NAM coming in HOT again!

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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Sanchize06 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:34 pm

0z NAM less generous for Philly, eastward toward SNJ, but still 12-18" for a lot of people here


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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:46 pm

The 3km has 20+ arpound NYC....MADONNE
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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:48 pm

If 3km verifies winds are go be a major issue again especially with this time windespeard big snow amounts.
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Re: March 7th Godzilla: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:48 pm

Chat cliff notes. Frank still loves his map. Sees no reason to change. Widespread 8-12” likely with potential for more if short range hi-res models are correct. They spit out 14-18” in lots of places. Storm track ticked east a touch making it better for the coast
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