Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
Scully she got the call just a few minutes after I posted. Merrick. S shore
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
Smitty!! Welcome to the board! Did you sleep at all last night? ha ha
I hope we get what the 06z NAM indicates, but I'm not going all in on this by any means. Not until the radar improves, it's all rain right now. Also, NWS and TWC have us with a big goose egg right now...its hard to totally dismiss BOTH of them this close to game time. Finally, both Jman and Syo are already sniffing out that something may be amiss!
I'll remain skeptically optimistic, this is a hard time of year to accumulate for us being this far south and this close to the ocean as it is. To overcome an inch of rain as well is a tall order. That's why I'm skeptical.
But that 06 Nam though! That's why I'm optimistic! We'll see...time to see where she goes and how cold it gets.
I hope we get what the 06z NAM indicates, but I'm not going all in on this by any means. Not until the radar improves, it's all rain right now. Also, NWS and TWC have us with a big goose egg right now...its hard to totally dismiss BOTH of them this close to game time. Finally, both Jman and Syo are already sniffing out that something may be amiss!
I'll remain skeptically optimistic, this is a hard time of year to accumulate for us being this far south and this close to the ocean as it is. To overcome an inch of rain as well is a tall order. That's why I'm skeptical.
But that 06 Nam though! That's why I'm optimistic! We'll see...time to see where she goes and how cold it gets.
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
syosnow94 wrote:Scully she got the call just a few minutes after I posted. Merrick. S shore
That’s good. Would not be comfortable sending wife out in what’s about to ramp up and be some great snowfall rates
Scullybutcher- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
Wow, what a drastic last minute shift east on basically all the models.
12z NAM yesterday
6z NAM this morning
12z NAM yesterday
6z NAM this morning
Last edited by Sanchize06 on March 7th 2018, 6:20 am; edited 1 time in total
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
33* with light snow mixed with rain here. Rooftops and grass coated with snow, most pavement wet. Assuming temps hold steady (or drop a degree or two) the snow will stick once it becomes heavy. But the coastal part of this storm is just getting its act together now so you won’t see heavier snow rates until later this morning. This part was as Jman put it, the pre-show
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
I didn’t get any sleep nopppee, but I do hope to get some snow falling, as Like you said TWC has nothing, but the runs just looked too good. All we can do is watch!!SENJsnowman wrote:Smitty!! Welcome to the board! Did you sleep at all last night? ha ha
I hope we get what the 06z NAM indicates, but I'm not going all in on this by any means. Not until the radar improves, it's all rain right now. Also, NWS and TWC have us with a big goose egg right now...its hard to totally dismiss BOTH of them this close to game time. Finally, both Jman and Syo are already sniffing out that something may be amiss!
I'll remain skeptically optimistic, this is a hard time of year to accumulate for us being this far south and this close to the ocean as it is. To overcome an inch of rain as well is a tall order. That's why I'm skeptical.
But that 06 Nam though! That's why I'm optimistic! We'll see...time to see where she goes and how cold it gets.
Smittyaj623- Posts : 73
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
I know they say late morning it gets going here but that's a god awful looking radar 10-16 is my forecast will see.
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
As of now I feel confident with my final map. If I could change I probably would have put “higher localized amounts” in the heavier band area. Western 2/3 ofLong Island and immediate NYC remains the biggest mystery to me of this storm. We’ll have to see how it nowcasts.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
I basically changed totals and the lines a little from NYC on east. I should have stuck with my original map which I was toiling on last night when I posted it. Looks like Frank and I are pretty close
Last edited by sroc4 on March 7th 2018, 6:30 am; edited 1 time in total
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
Temp down to 34. Stopped snowing. Now waiting patiently for the big show to start.
Scullybutcher- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
Don’t worry about radar yet. Based on current surface obs, the Secondary coastal low is just now developing on the border of NC/VA. As that moves north and deepens the radar will blossom and fill in.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
Woke up @ 6am to 35 degrees and a light rain, but all the prognosticators on TV increased their predictions to a foot or more, whereas yesterday when I went to sleep it was 5-8 inches.
Now, at 6:34, you can see an occasional flake mixed in with the rain and temp dropped to 34. Let's see what happens.
Now, at 6:34, you can see an occasional flake mixed in with the rain and temp dropped to 34. Let's see what happens.
Sparky Sparticles- Posts : 124
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
Looks like an inch fell overnight.Light snow, 30 degrees.Latest NWS update at 4:30 AM has me for 15-20 inches.Supposed to get cranking this morning.They recognized the S and E shift.Still had 2 to 3 inches OTG from the last snowstorm.More light snow Thursday-Friday but next Monday's storm looks 50-50, some models way S and E but a few hit us.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
31.5 degrees
Radar presentation is looking better. Basically hit the refresh and all of a sudden a dark blob is popping up. Light snow currently, but moderate looks to be not far away.
Radar presentation is looking better. Basically hit the refresh and all of a sudden a dark blob is popping up. Light snow currently, but moderate looks to be not far away.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
Ready guys for he HRDPS its nuts!!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
Lol! Other than a quick peak yesterday I have been so busy with this form I can’t even think about trying to figure out Monday yet. I’ll leave that to mugs for now. Lol.docstox12 wrote:Looks like an inch fell overnight.Light snow, 30 degrees.Latest NWS update at 4:30 AM has me for 15-20 inches.Supposed to get cranking this morning.They recognized the S and E shift.Still had 2 to 3 inches OTG from the last snowstorm.More light snow Thursday-Friday but next Monday's storm looks 50-50, some models way S and E but a few hit us.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
Got a coating over night Nothing happening now 33* Are all Warning Back up?
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
I just drove home to PA, and we are going on three inches up here already. That said I was peeking at the radar jus to see what I had ahead of me, and to me the radar has a STRONG signature resembling the HRDPS depiction with the setup and current evolution of the secondary band quickly becoming established across eastern PA. Will be interesting in a couple hours to do a comparison. I'm still absolutely disgusted with this whole thing and my performance on this system. Despicable. But that's why it ain't over until the fat lady sings (coasties), and you never count chickens before they hatch (inlanders and mountaineers). I'll tell you though, our snowpack up here is already/still knee deep from the last system, so y'all got some catching up to do anyway :p :p
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
Exploding echoes over south jersey heading north. Shouldn't be much longer. Buckle up folks!
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
rb924119 wrote:I just drove home to PA, and we are going on three inches up here already. That said I was peeking at the radar jus to see what I had ahead of me, and to me the radar has a STRONG signature resembling the HRDPS depiction with the setup and current evolution of the secondary band quickly becoming established across eastern PA. Will be interesting in a couple hours to do a comparison. I'm still absolutely disgusted with this whole thing and my performance on this system. Despicable. But that's why it ain't over until the fat lady sings (coasties), and you never count chickens before they hatch (inlanders and mountaineers). I'll tell you though, our snowpack up here is already/still knee deep from the last system, so y'all got some catching up to do anyway :p :p
It’s an impossible job and you are fantastic. We need 1 voice of dissent every storm
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
rb I don’t think you were that far off on this. Let’s wait and see what happens today. I may be proven wrong but I still expect significant mixing issues right on the coast.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
Radar filling in...
emokid51783- Posts : 144
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
Yes, radar looks better.Light snow here.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
Latest Upton discussion:
Track of the storm has shifted slightly to the S/E with the
00Z/06Z suite of guidance. This is consistent with trends in
surface pressure falls and latest trends in upper low track
based on water vapor imagery. Based on this, the region will not
be impacted by the dry slot associated with this storm until
later than previously forecast, based on this, and a slightly
deeper low also being progged, have upped qpf amounts.
Occasional light-moderate snow before sunrise, then steady
moderate-heavy snow builds in from SW to NE and intensifies
fairly rapidly this morning. Do expect precipitation to still
mix with/change to rain over most of Suffolk County and parts of
New London County and S Middlesex. Less confident in any
mix/change over across S Nassau and Queens.
The slightly farther S/E track also means a colder solution on a
whole, an increased snow amounts for all but the SE 1/4-1/3 of
the CWA, where mixing of rain will likely significantly curtail
snow totals. Based on this, have upgraded the winter weather
advisory to a Winter Storm Warning for Southern Queens and
Nassau Counties, all other storm related headlines remain
unchanged.
Track of the storm has shifted slightly to the S/E with the
00Z/06Z suite of guidance. This is consistent with trends in
surface pressure falls and latest trends in upper low track
based on water vapor imagery. Based on this, the region will not
be impacted by the dry slot associated with this storm until
later than previously forecast, based on this, and a slightly
deeper low also being progged, have upped qpf amounts.
Occasional light-moderate snow before sunrise, then steady
moderate-heavy snow builds in from SW to NE and intensifies
fairly rapidly this morning. Do expect precipitation to still
mix with/change to rain over most of Suffolk County and parts of
New London County and S Middlesex. Less confident in any
mix/change over across S Nassau and Queens.
The slightly farther S/E track also means a colder solution on a
whole, an increased snow amounts for all but the SE 1/4-1/3 of
the CWA, where mixing of rain will likely significantly curtail
snow totals. Based on this, have upgraded the winter weather
advisory to a Winter Storm Warning for Southern Queens and
Nassau Counties, all other storm related headlines remain
unchanged.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
Just let me be miserable at myself for a while as I watch my outlook that was looking SO GOOD for a while take the makeup off and turn into Matilda lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations
So Suffolk County gets mostly rain>
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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