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Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations

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Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations - Page 7 Empty Re: Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations

Post by Guest March 7th 2018, 6:12 am

Scully she got the call just a few minutes after I posted. Merrick. S shore

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Post by SENJsnowman March 7th 2018, 6:14 am

Smitty!! Welcome to the board! Did you sleep at all last night? ha ha

I hope we get what the 06z NAM indicates, but I'm not going all in on this by any means. Not until the radar improves, it's all rain right now. Also, NWS and TWC have us with a big goose egg right now...its hard to totally dismiss BOTH of them this close to game time. Finally, both Jman and Syo are already sniffing out that something may be amiss!

I'll remain skeptically optimistic, this is a hard time of year to accumulate for us being this far south and this close to the ocean as it is. To overcome an inch of rain as well is a tall order. That's why I'm skeptical.

But that 06 Nam though! That's why I'm optimistic! We'll see...time to see where she goes and how cold it gets.

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Post by Scullybutcher March 7th 2018, 6:15 am

syosnow94 wrote:Scully she got the call just a few minutes after I posted. Merrick. S shore

That’s good. Would not be comfortable sending wife out in what’s about to ramp up and be some great snowfall rates
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Post by Sanchize06 March 7th 2018, 6:19 am

Wow, what a drastic last minute shift east on basically all the models.

12z NAM yesterday

Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations - Page 7 Sn10_acc.us_ne

6z NAM this morning

Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations - Page 7 Sn10_acc.us_ne


Last edited by Sanchize06 on March 7th 2018, 6:20 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by billg315 March 7th 2018, 6:19 am

33* with light snow mixed with rain here. Rooftops and grass coated with snow, most pavement wet. Assuming temps hold steady (or drop a degree or two) the snow will stick once it becomes heavy. But the coastal part of this storm is just getting its act together now so you won’t see heavier snow rates until later this morning. This part was as Jman put it, the pre-show
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Post by Smittyaj623 March 7th 2018, 6:20 am

SENJsnowman wrote:Smitty!! Welcome to the board! Did you sleep at all last night? ha ha

I hope we get what the 06z NAM indicates, but I'm not going all in on this by any means. Not until the radar improves, it's all rain right now. Also, NWS and TWC have us with a big goose egg right now...its hard to totally dismiss BOTH of them this close to game time. Finally, both Jman and Syo are already sniffing out that something may be amiss!

I'll remain skeptically optimistic, this is a hard time of year to accumulate for us being this far south and this close to the ocean as it is. To overcome an inch of rain as well is a tall order. That's why I'm skeptical.

But that 06 Nam though! That's why I'm optimistic! We'll see...time to see where she goes and how cold it gets.
I didn’t get any sleep nopppee, but I do hope to get some snow falling, as Like you said TWC has nothing, but the runs just looked too good. All we can do is watch!!

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Post by jimv45 March 7th 2018, 6:21 am

I know they say late morning it gets going here but that's a god awful looking radar 10-16 is my forecast will see.

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Post by billg315 March 7th 2018, 6:23 am

As of now I feel confident with my final map. If I could change I probably would have put “higher localized amounts” in the heavier band area. Western 2/3 ofLong Island and immediate NYC remains the biggest mystery to me of this storm. We’ll have to see how it nowcasts.
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Post by sroc4 March 7th 2018, 6:28 am

I basically changed totals and the lines a little from NYC on east.  I should have stuck with my original map which I was toiling on last night when I posted it.  Looks like Frank and I are pretty close


Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations - Page 7 Snow_m17


Last edited by sroc4 on March 7th 2018, 6:30 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by Scullybutcher March 7th 2018, 6:30 am

Temp down to 34. Stopped snowing. Now waiting patiently for the big show to start.
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Post by billg315 March 7th 2018, 6:35 am

Don’t worry about radar yet. Based on current surface obs, the Secondary coastal low is just now developing on the border of NC/VA. As that moves north and deepens the radar will blossom and fill in.
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Post by Sparky Sparticles March 7th 2018, 6:36 am

Woke up @ 6am to 35 degrees and a light rain, but all the prognosticators on TV increased their predictions to a foot or more, whereas yesterday when I went to sleep it was 5-8 inches.
Now, at 6:34, you can see an occasional flake mixed in with the rain and temp dropped to 34. Let's see what happens.
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Post by docstox12 March 7th 2018, 6:37 am

Looks like an inch fell overnight.Light snow, 30 degrees.Latest NWS update at 4:30 AM has me for 15-20 inches.Supposed to get cranking this morning.They recognized the S and E shift.Still had 2 to 3 inches OTG from the last snowstorm.More light snow Thursday-Friday but next Monday's storm looks 50-50, some models way S and E but a few hit us.
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Post by heehaw453 March 7th 2018, 6:39 am

31.5 degrees
Radar presentation is looking better. Basically hit the refresh and all of a sudden a dark blob is popping up. Light snow currently, but moderate looks to be not far away.

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Post by jmanley32 March 7th 2018, 6:41 am

Ready guys for he HRDPS its nuts!!

Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations - Page 7 Hrdps_14
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Post by billg315 March 7th 2018, 6:41 am

docstox12 wrote:Looks like an inch fell overnight.Light snow, 30 degrees.Latest NWS update at 4:30 AM has me for 15-20 inches.Supposed to get cranking this morning.They recognized the S and E shift.Still had 2 to 3 inches OTG from the last snowstorm.More light snow Thursday-Friday but next Monday's storm looks 50-50, some models way S and E but a few hit us.
Lol! Other than a quick peak yesterday I have been so busy with this form I can’t even think about trying to figure out Monday yet. I’ll leave that to mugs for now. Lol.
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Post by oldtimer March 7th 2018, 6:43 am

Got a coating over night Nothing happening now 33* Are all Warning Back up?

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Post by rb924119 March 7th 2018, 6:50 am

I just drove home to PA, and we are going on three inches up here already. That said I was peeking at the radar jus to see what I had ahead of me, and to me the radar has a STRONG signature resembling the HRDPS depiction with the setup and current evolution of the secondary band quickly becoming established across eastern PA. Will be interesting in a couple hours to do a comparison. I'm still absolutely disgusted with this whole thing and my performance on this system. Despicable. But that's why it ain't over until the fat lady sings (coasties), and you never count chickens before they hatch (inlanders and mountaineers). I'll tell you though, our snowpack up here is already/still knee deep from the last system, so y'all got some catching up to do anyway :p :p

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Post by nutleyblizzard March 7th 2018, 6:50 am

Exploding echoes over south jersey heading north. Shouldn't be much longer. Buckle up folks!
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Post by Scullybutcher March 7th 2018, 6:52 am

rb924119 wrote:I just drove home to PA, and we are going on three inches up here already. That said I was peeking at the radar jus to see what I had ahead of me, and to me the radar has a STRONG signature resembling the HRDPS depiction with the setup and current evolution of the secondary band quickly becoming established across eastern PA. Will be interesting in a couple hours to do a comparison. I'm still absolutely disgusted with this whole thing and my performance on this system. Despicable. But that's why it ain't over until the fat lady sings (coasties), and you never count chickens before they hatch (inlanders and mountaineers). I'll tell you though, our snowpack up here is already/still knee deep from the last system, so y'all got some catching up to do anyway :p :p

It’s an impossible job and you are fantastic. We need 1 voice of dissent every storm
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Post by billg315 March 7th 2018, 6:58 am

rb I don’t think you were that far off on this. Let’s wait and see what happens today. I may be proven wrong but I still expect significant mixing issues right on the coast.
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Post by emokid51783 March 7th 2018, 7:00 am

Radar filling in...

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Post by docstox12 March 7th 2018, 7:01 am

Yes, radar looks better.Light snow here.
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Post by sroc4 March 7th 2018, 7:03 am

Latest Upton discussion:

Track of the storm has shifted slightly to the S/E with the
00Z/06Z suite of guidance. This is consistent with trends in
surface pressure falls and latest trends in upper low track
based on water vapor imagery. Based on this, the region will not
be impacted by the dry slot associated with this storm until
later than previously forecast, based on this, and a slightly
deeper low also being progged, have upped qpf amounts.

Occasional light-moderate snow before sunrise, then steady
moderate-heavy snow builds in from SW to NE and intensifies
fairly rapidly this morning. Do expect precipitation to still
mix with/change to rain over most of Suffolk County and parts of
New London County and S Middlesex. Less confident in any
mix/change over across S Nassau and Queens.

The slightly farther S/E track also means a colder solution on a
whole, an increased snow amounts for all but the SE 1/4-1/3 of
the CWA, where mixing of rain will likely significantly curtail
snow totals. Based on this, have upgraded the winter weather
advisory to a Winter Storm Warning for Southern Queens and
Nassau Counties, all other storm related headlines remain
unchanged.


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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by RJB8525 March 7th 2018, 7:03 am

Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations - Page 7 Screen12

Unsettling
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Post by rb924119 March 7th 2018, 7:07 am

Just let me be miserable at myself for a while as I watch my outlook that was looking SO GOOD for a while take the makeup off and turn into Matilda lol GFS Model shout Brick Tired Mad

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Post by oldtimer March 7th 2018, 7:08 am

So Suffolk County gets mostly rain>

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