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Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

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Post by mikeypizano Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:18 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
mwilli5783 wrote:i have a question..what does madonnne mean,and what is h5
I believe in I am correct in italian madonne is a way of saying OMG or wow!!! H5 is the upper levels at 500mb, which show things a lot better as I have learned from the pros on here.  If i am wrong someone correct me.

Mother of God

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:20 pm

snowday111 wrote:What's the timing of this? Yes weather channel has it for Monday into Tuesday. Do you guys think this will be that time frame or later?
Looks to be that time frame, see Franks scroll on top, unless that changes these are his main thoughts at this time. Godzilla is looking more likely but if hi res nam happened we would be back to a roidzilla for at least some. I still worry about accumulations along coastal areas and am really hoping this has the chance to be able to allow for a good dumping of snow here, at least a foot please.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:29 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
devsman wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Weird run by the GFS. A good bump west, but with a weaker western flank precip shield less snow.
Less interaction between northern and southern streams
Just like we saw with the last 2 storms I think Hi-res models wil lead the way and LR will play catch up last minute. This is my opinion not a forecast.

More so than that, the Hi res NAM picked up on the explosive possibilities of the last 2 storms before any of the other models. Could it lead the way again?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:37 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
devsman wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Weird run by the GFS. A good bump west, but with a weaker western flank precip shield less snow.
Less interaction between northern and southern streams
Just like we saw with the last 2 storms I think Hi-res models wil lead the way and LR will play catch up last minute. This is my opinion not a forecast.

More so than that, the Hi res NAM picked up on the explosive possibilities of the last 2 storms before any of the other models. Could it lead the way again?
I am a betting man so I would bet yes, but of course I could lose. How far out did the Hi-res nam and other start showing the explosive possibility of the other 2 storms was it this far out? Also any word on rgem LR?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:39 pm

GFS was actually further west and stronger than 12z but as stated the western expanse of precip led to little or no snow.  Do not think that will be the case, the movement west is what we wanted to see. Also just realized starting tomorrow models are an hour later, uggg.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:39 pm

UPTON: "5:15 pm Saturday:
Changes have been made to the forecast for Mon. into Tue. with the most recent forecast package. Accumulating snow is now looking more likely for Mon. evening into Tues. morning."

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:41 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:UPTON: "5:15 pm Saturday:
Changes have been made to the forecast for Mon. into Tue. with the most recent forecast package.  Accumulating snow is now looking more likely for Mon. evening into Tues. morning."

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 13 7f06c510
Soul this far out showing 3-6 areawide already just shows the potential that NWS is already seeing.
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Post by mwilli5783 Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:43 pm

thanls jman..when i see u tupe MADONNNR..im thinking madonna...lol

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Post by mwilli5783 Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:44 pm

madonnne..i'm thinking madonna..lol

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Post by Guest Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:58 pm

jmanley32 wrote:GFS was actually further west and stronger than 12z but as stated the western expanse of precip led to little or no snow.  Do not think that will be the case, the movement west is what we wanted to see. Also just realized starting tomorrow models are an hour later, uggg.

GFS does not do well with dynamics and precip. This does not concern me.

What does concern me is the over the top excitement. I tend to be very optimistic too especially with Frank leading the way but ther s still 48 hours to go. Let’s chill somewhat

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:04 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:GFS was actually further west and stronger than 12z but as stated the western expanse of precip led to little or no snow.  Do not think that will be the case, the movement west is what we wanted to see. Also just realized starting tomorrow models are an hour later, uggg.

GFS does not do well with dynamics and precip.  This does not concern me.  

What does concern me is the over the top excitement.  I tend to be very optimistic too especially with Frank leading the way but ther s still 48 hours to go. Let’s chill somewhat
Yes your right, cautious optimism as sroc says.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:20 pm

One other thing to like about this is if it happens most of the precip falls after sunset and before noon. For the marginal areas that got shifted on Wednesday that would’ve made a huge difference.
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Post by Radz Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:23 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote: One other thing to like about this is if it happens most of the precip falls after sunset and before noon.  For the marginal areas that got shifted on Friday that would’ve made a huge difference.
Totally agree, if most of the precip falls overnight, it'll make a world of difference for many...
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:25 pm

Radz wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote: One other thing to like about this is if it happens most of the precip falls after sunset and before noon.  For the marginal areas that got shifted on Friday that would’ve made a huge difference.
Totally agree, if most of the precip falls overnight, it'll make a world of difference for many...
it will especially here but also it will still likely b heavy wet and hence more power outages. 2 major power outage events in 10 days is very rare 3...from my memory unheard of.
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Post by Guest Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:28 pm

What’s with the latest model showing 12-18” area wide except for the immediate NYC area and southern Westchester?

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:29 pm

syosnow94 wrote:What’s with the latest model showing 12-18” area wide except for the immediate NYC area and southern Westchester?
lol watch it I got a friend who is a real witch and I will have her cast a spell over ur county for nothing but puke real puke not snow lol. Syo u really think I'm that dumb? I'm not gullable
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Post by mikeypizano Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:34 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:What’s with the latest model showing 12-18” area wide except for the immediate NYC area and southern Westchester?
lol watch it I got a friend who is a real witch and I will have her cast a spell over ur county for nothing but puke real puke not snow lol. Syo u really think I'm that dumb? I'm not gullable

Woah BANTER!
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:34 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:What’s with the latest model showing 12-18” area wide except for the immediate NYC area and southern Westchester?
lol watch it I got a friend who is a real witch and I will have her cast a spell over ur county for nothing but puke real puke not snow lol

THIS.

I cannot get amped over this storm. I just can't. I am still in hiding from the last one, after my friends in the city were joking about the "bust" of a storm that morning. EVEN STILL, I assured everyone that by the evening commute, it'd be an all-out blizzard. 10" Manhattan. Yep. So needless to say, unless every high res model shows NYC & Westchester in warning levels snows 3 HOURS prior to, I refuse to sound alarms. Yes. I'm butt hurt. Neutral (Sorry for the banter-esque post)
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:39 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:What’s with the latest model showing 12-18” area wide except for the immediate NYC area and southern Westchester?
lol watch it I got a friend who is a real witch and I will have her cast a spell over ur county for nothing but puke real puke not snow lol

THIS.

I cannot get amped over this storm. I just can't. I am still in hiding from the last one, after my friends in the city were joking about the "bust" of a storm that morning. EVEN STILL, I assured everyone that by the evening commute, it'd be an all-out blizzard. 10" Manhattan. Yep. So needless to say, unless every high res model shows NYC & Westchester in warning levels snows 3 HOURS prior to, I refuse to sound alarms. Yes. I'm butt hurt. Neutral  (Sorry for the banter-esque post)

I know they're just busting on you but I hope they realize places within 30 miles N&W of the city and southern westchester received 20-26 inches of snow. It was that close.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:50 pm

Please watch the banter gang, if this storm looks good the next few runs, this thread is going to be big enough... please see what thread you are in before you post.

Thanks! Hoping to see the runs later, but still in Florida and have an early flight. The trends are looking better and it's interesting that the NWS put out a snow map already, they are usually late to the party!

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:05 pm

Yes only hardcore storm posting here ur right. Hey I didn't start it lol
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:16 pm

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Post by billg315 Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:39 pm

Mount Holly Forecast discussion issued at 6:06 pm. this evening. Interesting change from when this was being largely written off yesterday:

At the surface, low pressure from the Tennessee River Valley
transfers to the Carolina coast by Monday afternoon, intensifying as it moves NE, passing by the mid-Atlantic coast late Monday into Tuesday. The 12Z GFS is more aggressive than its previous runs in bringing precipitation to the CWA, reminiscent of the last two storms that affected the area, with a QPF of one-half to three- quarters inch of liquid precipitation near the I-95 corridor, and up to 1.5 inches near the NJ and DE coasts.
Temperatures look warm enough at the beginning of the event for rain at the coast, and perhaps a rain/snow mix further inland, before turning over to snow as colder air gets wrapped around the system late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Another troubling issue is the western trend most models have exhibited with storms in the recent past, and a similar trend cannot be discounted this time around. By the way, the 12Z NAM exhibits a similar pattern with respect to storm position and movement, but current QPF amounts over the CWA are lower than its GFS counterpart. Currently this does not look like a crippling event where snow happens to accumulate (a few inches), but there is still much uncertainly given the spread in model solutions. Stay tuned.
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Post by billg315 Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:41 pm

“Stay tuned.” They know how close this is.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:00 pm

billg315 wrote:“Stay tuned.” They know how close this is.
any update from Upton. They are always more lax than my Holly it seems.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:02 pm

I can't wait to see 00z 3km hoping for similar to 18z. I know temper any expectations but it's still fun. Oh btw having a hurricane at red lobster. They ran out of roidzillas lol


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Post by billg315 Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
billg315 wrote:“Stay tuned.” They know how close this is.
any update from Upton. They are always more lax than my Holly it seems.
Upton NWS discussion 7 pm:
Main focus during this period is potential for yet another
coastal storm late Monday through Tuesday.

A familiar pattern with NWP is a signal for a coastal storm in the Day 5-7 period, losing the signal in the Day 3 to 4 period, and then coming back with it in within 48 hrs of the storm. This appears to be a function of NWP struggles with phasing of northern and southern stream energy.

This appears to be the case again, with operational models andgood percentage of GEFS/EPS ensemble members having trended closer to the 40/70 lat/lon in the last 24 hours with a bombing offshore low. The main players in this forecast lie in the degree of amplification of a PAC shortwave descending down the front range of the Rockies today and sliding east through the Tennessee River Valley/Southeast US Sunday into Monday, and then its interaction with a large polar low descending into the Great Lakes Monday into Monday Night. SBU CSTAR ensemble sensitivity lies in the evolution of the omega blocking over the Eastern Canada, and the downstream effects of the evolution of the deep eastern PAC trough over the next 24 hours. Would expect models to have a better handle on this in the next 24 hours as the these elements are better remotely sensed and l initialized in the models.
Based on ensemble qpf probs, moderate potential exists for an advisory level snow (3+ inches) for the Monday Night through Tuesday time period if low pressure continues current ensemble mean track of around 300 miles southeast of LI. Meanwhile, there is a low potential for strong winds and warning level snows(6+ inches), which would be realized if low pressure tracks closer to the 40/70 benchmark as indicated by a notable numbers of ensemble members.

Thermal profiles support mainly snow, but solar insolation, boundary layer temps, elevation/maritime effects, and precipitation intensity are always complicating factors for snow
accum this time of year. Monitor subsequent forecasts through the weekend for the latest on this storm.


Last edited by billg315 on Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:06 pm; edited 1 time in total
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