NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

+34
Dunnzoo
jake732
Quietace
hurrysundown23
Radz
Taffy
adamfitz1969
heehaw453
CPcantmeasuresnow
frank 638
jimv45
Grselig
docstox12
amugs
aiannone
hyde345
jmanley32
SoulSingMG
algae888
mikeypizano
weatherwatchermom
Carter bk
SENJsnowman
gigs68
nutleyblizzard
Frank_Wx
rb924119
Dtone
skinsfan1177
SNOW MAN
cooladi
oldtimer
billg315
sroc4
38 posters

Page 1 of 13 1, 2, 3 ... 11, 12, 13  Next

Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by sroc4 Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:46 am

Without question this sucka is gaining momentum. And the NW trends are real. When looking at the globals the GFS I believe is actually leading the way ovr the Euro. Lets quickly look at H 5 and compare the subtle, yet very important differences that will either pull the surface low track on or just SE of the 70/40 BM or keep the track further S&E of the BM.

There are two troughs to pay attention to. 1) the steering trough dropping in from the north, and 2) the main trough that is generation our storm system to the south. How it plays out will be about main trough axis orientation, (when and where), relative to the steering trough position.

Lets take a look at the Euro vs the GFS valid 00z March 13th. Notice we are under 48hrs yet there are these subtle yet vitally important differences still. Notice in the first images, the Euro, the main trough orientation is still positively tilted, and the take notice where the steering trough is positioned. The result of a more positively tilted trough at this position, and a steering trough a tad to far south is a storm track that is more NE and well S&E of the BM.

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Ecmwf111
Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Ecmwf110


However; on the GFS, the main trough axis is already tilted to neutral because the steering trough is a tad further N allowing for heights to increase faster out ahead of the main trough axis. The result is higher heights means a strom track oriented more N to NNE and a track closer to the BM.

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Gfs_z521
Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Gfs_z522

So which one is right? Well for now if you look at some of the hi res short range models, ie: the RGEM and 1k/3k NAM, they both agree with the GFS on main track orientation relative to the steering trough by 00z March 13th

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Rgem_u14
Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Namcon12
Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Nam3km10


The Euro seems to be playing catchup with the NW trend. More than likely its the improved trend of the +PNA ridge in the west that has allowed for the delay in the arrival of the N energy/steering rough such that we can raise heights appropriately along the coast to bring the LP up. Watch the hi res models today and tonight for changes to the Main trough axis and position relative to the steering trough position. Another thing to watch is when the Main trough actually closes off. The 3K NAM closes it off near the Va/NC coast which tilts the main trough axis negative sooner causing a phase with the steering trough sooner and a much more potent storm and track even further N&W. The 12k NAM closes off H5 of the Main trough much later so the trough axis tilts neg later so the storm track is a tad further S&E relative to the 3K.

I fully expect further shifts N&W to the storm track today and tonight on the models. How far though?

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by billg315 Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:24 am

Excellent write up Scott. As I said in the other thread, I think those who have somewhat realistic expectations about this event could be very happy. 3 days ago some models had this OTS off the Carolinas without us getting a flake, now it’s being called a “miss” by some if the models show us getting 1-3”. That tells you how far this has progressed. Lol
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by oldtimer Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:26 am

NWS Has already posted WSW for New England You think they are leading more toward the Euro?

oldtimer
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1103
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 77
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by cooladi Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:28 am

Excellent analysis as always! Just wish those models would get with the program, whatever it is, a whole lot quicker...

cooladi
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 185
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : East Rockaway, NY 11518

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by SNOW MAN Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:28 am

Thank you for your reply billg. Hopefully I'll get some snow out of this.
SNOW MAN
SNOW MAN
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1361
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-01-13
Age : 64
Location : Marshalls Creek Pa.

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by billg315 Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:33 am

My sense with this is that it has been steadily trending N&W. This makes sense to me because of the overall pattern and because I think storms often tend to follow the trail blazed for them by prior storms (in a metaphorical sense). Once a certain storm track sets up, it often becomes the preferred track. The last two storms tracked close to the coast - not OTS so I would usually expect this to follow suit without a major intervening pattern change. Also the models have had a pretty consistent N&W trend this winter, so that also makes sense. I’m still not sure (at THIS moment) it gets close enough to give us a huge hit (though that is very much possible) but I do think everyone sees some accumulating snows (hence why realistic expectations are important to happiness here).
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:40 am

Wow some big hitters in heteTracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th 5aa52010
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by sroc4 Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:40 am

Crap I did lock the wrong thread by mistake. Thanks Janet

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by Dtone Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:45 am

Whoa what is going on. I left.to DC early Fri and havent been following since, this has becomea likely threat wow. I thought i might of had a better chance here.

Dtone
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 1738
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-08-26
Location : Bronx, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by billg315 Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:45 am

Also note, this is a nighttime storm. Overnight temps have been below freeezing since Wed and will get to or below freezing Monday night. There will be NO sun issues, so what falls should (mostly) stick (unlike both of the prior storms where a lot of the falling snow wasn’t sticking cutting down on overall totals).
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:27 am

FIVE LETTERS: S.R.E.F.S.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:31 am

SREFS

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th 5aa52df666510

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21301
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:57 am

Frank_Wx wrote:SREFS

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th 5aa52df666510
Wow what a jump west! You would think the NAM is going to comply shortly.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by gigs68 Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:00 am

rb924119 wrote:FIVE LETTERS: S.R.E.F.S.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3

What is the <3?
gigs68
gigs68

Posts : 142
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2013-01-16
Location : Commack, NY (NW Suffolk)

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by SENJsnowman Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:02 am

A makeshift 'heart emoji' I believe...?

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1186
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by gigs68 Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:03 am

SENJsnowman wrote:A makeshift 'heart emoji' I believe...?

Thanks I see it now
gigs68
gigs68

Posts : 142
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2013-01-16
Location : Commack, NY (NW Suffolk)

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:04 am

I THINK THE NAM BOUTTA CALL THE SREFS AND RAISE THEM I THINK OMGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!!!! H5 LOOKS RIDICULOUS!!!!!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:08 am

Shortwave is really amped. Looks like more northern/southern stream interaction going on earlier too.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:12 am

OH. MY. GOD. NAM IS GOING NUCLEAR HERE GOOD LORD I MUST BE IN HEAVEN!!!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:16 am

Trough much better aligned this run. 990 mb off the NC coast already!!!
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by Carter bk Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:23 am

This is the last one for the season guys honestly. Unless u get a perfect storm in late march or aoril which is unlikely bring her home

Carter bk

Posts : 73
Reputation : 5
Join date : 2017-12-07

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by Guest Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:24 am

TWC gives NYC metro 2-4” and Long Island 4-8” More east less west in both cases.

NWS HAS NYC metro and Long Island 3-8”. Less west

Thoughts. Still 34 hours to go. I’ll have a map out this evening after the 12z runs are all done and analyzed. I say this afternoon at 4pm if trends hold the NWS will host advisories from the NYC metro west and watches east.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:30 am

Rb you posted 25min ago....and left us hanging affraid affraid
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3716
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 60
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by Guest Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:32 am

He’s doing it on purpose mom. Hopefully he saw the NAM and passed out

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by mikeypizano Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:33 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:Rb you posted 25min ago....and left us hanging affraid affraid

He always does...
mikeypizano
mikeypizano
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1118
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 35
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA

Back to top Go down

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th Empty Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 13 1, 2, 3 ... 11, 12, 13  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum