Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

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Post by sroc4 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:04 pm

Not buying euro at all

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:05 pm

Why? What did it show?

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Post by SoulSingMG on Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:08 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Why?  What did it show?

...sends her packing East.
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:19 pm

sroc4 wrote:Not buying euro at all
EURO is an eastern outlier. Toss it. Stick with the short range models from here on out. There's been a lot of needless bridge jumping today. The 12z NAM did not make any sense to me. The H5 levels looked gorgeous. I've got a hunch this will correct west tonight into tomorrow and show a BM track.
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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:23 pm

I hope so, but I gotta be honest I don’t see enough negative to the trough to get this thing to the BM. I see 150 miles SE of he BM and a glancing blow to coastal areas. But hopefully I’m wrong. I’m gonna put out one of my finger paint maps for CP and make totals slightly higher than what I actually think they will be just to account for some westward adjustments of the LP

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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:29 pm

We also can’t just cherrypick the western guidance just because it’s what we want and toss the eastern ones

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Post by sroc4 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:34 pm

Ive never been one to cherry pick a model

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:38 pm

sroc4 wrote:Ive never been one to cherry pick a model
you yourself said no bm track so to me from u that means it's un likely. So I'm just go remain quiet and if nothing happens I'll see u all at hurricane season if ur interested. Not go jump off the bridge cuz it's just too much out of me to go back and forth. I'm going to hope until it's out of here or ots.
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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:38 pm

sroc4 wrote:Ive never been one to cherry pick a model

Wasn’t accusing anyone specifically Scott. Just a blanket statement

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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:41 pm

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 5 Be6da610


Red= Jackpot of 8”+
Yellow= 4-8”. Highest east
Green= 1-3”
Blue= snow showers. C-1” locally 2” in higher terrain east of Hudson

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Post by Taffy on Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:50 pm

What is a BM track? Sorry, I'm just trying to learn.
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Post by frank 638 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:52 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 5 Be6da610


Red= Jackpot of 8”+
Yellow= 4-8”. Highest east
Green= 1-3”
Blue= snow showers. C-1” locally 2” in higher terrain east of Hudson
I hope we bring this up I will be happy with 3 to 6 inches

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:55 pm

frank 638 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 5 Be6da610


Red= Jackpot of 8”+
Yellow= 4-8”. Highest east
Green= 1-3”
Blue= snow showers. C-1” locally 2” in higher terrain east of Hudson
I hope we bring this up I will be happy with 3 to 6 inches
this is higher than u think damn ok I'm do close to been done. lol so basically 0 nyc. And I'm not saying it's a bad map it's actually quite plsudible.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:05 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:58 pm

Taffy wrote:What is a BM track? Sorry, I'm just trying to learn.
the 40 70 latitude longitude on the map. It's usually the best spot for a storm to b just at or inside that area to give us a good storm. Stands for bench mark.
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Post by SoulSingMG on Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:01 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Ive never been one to cherry pick a model
you yourself said no bm track so to me from u that means it's un likely. So I'm just go remain quiet and if nothing happens I'll see u all at hurricane season if ur interested. Not go jump off the bridge cuz it's just too much out of me to go back and forth. I'm going to hope until it's out of here or ots.

Wellllll, he said he doesn't see it *inside* the 40/70
Benchmark...... ;-)
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:03 pm

Well let's see what 18z models do. SR models the lr just don't seem handle things that well but they can't b completely discounted like syo said.
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Post by sroc4 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:05 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Ive never been one to cherry pick a model
you yourself said no bm track so to me from u that means it's un likely. So I'm just go remain quiet and if nothing happens I'll see u all at hurricane season if ur interested. Not go jump off the bridge cuz it's just too much out of me to go back and forth. I'm going to hope until it's out of here or ots.

Wellllll, he said he doesn't see it *inside* the 40/70
Benchmark...... ;-)

Exactly!! I e only ruled out “inside” the BM

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by SoulSingMG on Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:07 pm

Hmmm...

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 5 4ceb0b10
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:08 pm

sroc4 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Ive never been one to cherry pick a model
you yourself said no bm track so to me from u that means it's un likely. So I'm just go remain quiet and if nothing happens I'll see u all at hurricane season if ur interested. Not go jump off the bridge cuz it's just too much out of me to go back and forth. I'm going to hope until it's out of here or ots.

Wellllll, he said he doesn't see it *inside* the 40/70
Benchmark...... ;-)

Exactly!!  I e only ruled out “inside” the BM
my mistake. No chance or very little? I mean stranger things have happened no?
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:10 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Hmmm...

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 5 4ceb0b10
hey hey soul u jumped ship I'm not throwing u the donut lol. I'm staying positive and saying we get around s low end warning snow or high end advisory. Anything more is just gravy. If I am right I'll b able say I was only one not to jump lol
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Post by Taffy on Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:16 pm

Thanks for taking the time to answer me, Jman.
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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:23 pm

Soul that has most of our firumnat over a 50% chance of greater than 4”. That’s pretty aggressive on their part. I hope my map busts

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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:30 pm

10% probability for me. Looks like it's about time to call it a wrap on this winter.

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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:30 pm

Upton has my area in west/central LI for 2-4” Monday night and 2-4” Tuesday morning. I say they go WS Watches for Suffolk LI at 4 pm and WWA for 3-5 back west through eastern NJ and LHV

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:32 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Upton has my area in west/central LI for 2-4” Monday night and 2-4” Tuesday morning. I say they go WS Watches for Suffolk LI at 4 pm and  WWA for 3-5 back west through eastern NJ and LHV
at this pt sounds ok to me. I honestly just want one more snow day Tues lol
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