Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

I moved my reply to banter. Don't want to crowd the space here.

Things are getting interesting.

If we can get this 50 to 100 miles more west NYC on east sees a Godzilla maybe even far eastern nj.

Yeah soooooo the NAM is wrong and will cont to correct west with the track.  Your telling me that a closed H5 in this position with the strength of that vorticity yields a surface LP in this position?  Nope.  Not going to happen.  It will be closer to the coast than what you see in this run.  This is the def of chasing the convection

Same with 3K. There is no way that is the center of the surface LP. It will come west a little

sroc4 wrote:Yeah soooooo the NAM is wrong and will cont to correct west with the track.  Your telling me that a closed H5 in this position with the strength of that vorticity yields a surface LP in this position?  Nope.  Not going to happen.  It will be closer to the coast than what you see in this run.  This is the def of chasing the convection

I noticed/pointed to this on the NAM run last night too and thought that the H5 placement was an indication the surface low was too far east, but don't know the upper level stuff like you or Frank so was hoping you guys would weigh in. Maybe I am learning something here.

billg315 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Yeah soooooo the NAM is wrong and will cont to correct west with the track.  Your telling me that a closed H5 in this position with the strength of that vorticity yields a surface LP in this position?  Nope.  Not going to happen.  It will be closer to the coast than what you see in this run.  This is the def of chasing the convection

I noticed/pointed to this on the NAM run last night too and thought that the H5 placement was an indication the surface low was too far east, but don't know the upper level stuff like you or Frank so was hoping you guys would weigh in. Maybe I am learning something here.

I didn’t see that but if you did I would say bravo. Am I 100% confident in this assessment?  No. But I am pretty darn confident. How much west it can come?  I’m still not sure but starting tonight and certainly by the am I will start looking to observations. Areas N&W of the city should not expect Godzilla but I can certainly see the lower HV in the 2-4” maybe 3-6”

sroc4 wrote:

billg315 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Yeah soooooo the NAM is wrong and will cont to correct west with the track.  Your telling me that a closed H5 in this position with the strength of that vorticity yields a surface LP in this position?  Nope.  Not going to happen.  It will be closer to the coast than what you see in this run.  This is the def of chasing the convection

I noticed/pointed to this on the NAM run last night too and thought that the H5 placement was an indication the surface low was too far east, but don't know the upper level stuff like you or Frank so was hoping you guys would weigh in. Maybe I am learning something here.

I didn’t see that but if you did I would say bravo. Am I 100% confident in this assessment?  No. But I am pretty darn confident. How much west it can come?  I’m still not sure but starting tonight and certainly by the am I will start looking to observations. Areas N&W of the city should not expect Godzilla but I can certainly see the lower HV in the 2-4” maybe 3-6”

Do you see anything for us down here in nj... For those of us holding out hope

Coastal nj looks good for some snow

sroc4 wrote:

billg315 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Yeah soooooo the NAM is wrong and will cont to correct west with the track.  Your telling me that a closed H5 in this position with the strength of that vorticity yields a surface LP in this position?  Nope.  Not going to happen.  It will be closer to the coast than what you see in this run.  This is the def of chasing the convection

I noticed/pointed to this on the NAM run last night too and thought that the H5 placement was an indication the surface low was too far east, but don't know the upper level stuff like you or Frank so was hoping you guys would weigh in. Maybe I am learning something here.

I didn’t see that but if you did I would say bravo. Am I 100% confident in this assessment?  No. But I am pretty darn confident. How much west it can come?  I’m still not sure but starting tonight and certainly by the am I will start looking to observations. Areas N&W of the city should not expect Godzilla but I can certainly see the lower HV in the 2-4” maybe 3-6”

sroc do you think its possible to see 6-12 moved into the NYC/southern westchester/far eastern NJ area? Not even asking for godzilla, though would be nice, was a huge jump on nam with porecip field to the west.

3km precip field actually kicked east a bit, but I will trust you know what you are talking about sroc

skinsfan1177 wrote:Coastal nj looks good for some snow

Tx skins off to see black panther and dinner...here to good news later!!

Reading Scott’s post and I don’t want to speak for him, but I’d say 3-4” just west and N of NYC to about 12” at Montauka is what he’s thinking

SoulSingMG wrote:Hot off the gd press!

DOn't usually see them this aggressive this early on a storm with many question marks still.

But I'll take it as is.

4-6 i will be very happy to get that.

Im in the 120-160 mm of snow zone. CP I’m coming for ya

Sigh. Wishing on a snow flake...

SoulSingMG wrote:Sigh. Wishing on a snow flake...

They have Montauk on the expected snowfall for 8-12 and on the 10% chance on the upper end they have Montauk for 11 inches. That makes no sense.

SoulSingMG wrote:Sigh. Wishing on a snow flake...

wow they see the potential for a Godzilla up to the area. Soul the higher end has verified before. All we need is a push west. And as doc said they being agressive early. I'm cuz they are thinking it's go b more. Just s hunch.

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Sigh. Wishing on a snow flake...

wow they see the potential for a Godzilla up to the area. Soul the higher end has verified before. All we need is a push west. And as doc said they being agressive early. I'm cuz they are thinking it's go b more. Just s hunch.

I'm just confused at their going rogue so to speak from the model majority. NWS Taunton is basically putting all their weight on the 3K NAM.

This storm coming folks and it's a biggie. Don't be fooled by today's temps and lull in atmosphere. When this storm hits it's gonna throw snow rates down 1-2 inch per hour. Central NJ right in the area where concerns are high!

History shows again and again
How nature points out the folly of man Godzilla!

Again, look for warning entire Tri-State area by either late this eve or in the AM...stay safe all by job has already told me to work from home if I choose to do so!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvQWBXJOgAI

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Sigh. Wishing on a snow flake...

They have Montauk on the expected snowfall for 8-12 and on the 10% chance on the upper end they have Montauk for 11 inches. That makes no sense.

Maybe taking mixing into consideration...

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Sigh. Wishing on a snow flake...

They have Montauk on the expected snowfall for 8-12 and on the 10% chance on the upper end they have Montauk for 11 inches. That makes no sense.

It does. In order for us to reach the upper level totals the storm would be close enough to introduce mixing areas out there. CMON CP. YOURE BETTER THAN THAT

Ok, here is my first call Snow Map. This will not necessarily be a case where it goes low to high, west-to-east within the band. It's more a "how close does the low come" scenario where if the low comes closer the higher totals are more likely in the whole band if it's further away the lower totals.
Yellow: 1-3" of Snow;
Blue: 3-5" of Snow;
Pink/Purple: 5-10" of Snow;
Orange: 10-15" of snow;

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Sigh. Wishing on a snow flake...

wow they see the potential for a Godzilla up to the area. Soul the higher end has verified before. All we need is a push west. And as doc said they being agressive early. I'm cuz they are thinking it's go b more. Just s hunch.

I'm just confused at their going rogue so to speak from the model majority. NWS Taunton is basically putting all their weight on the 3K NAM.

National Weather Service is not making their forecast based off of models in a situation like this. The basis of their forecast will be what historically happens when you have a deepening low pressure system close to the benchmark and then use the different model guidance to see which matches best with historical outcomes. Guidance right now is for nada to a foot for New York City and a few inches to an all-out blizt for eastern half of Long Island so they will use the model that makes most sense in a setup like this.

billg315 wrote:Ok, here is my first call Snow Map. This will not necessarily be a case where it goes low to high, west-to-east within the band. It's more a "how close does the low come" scenario where if the low comes closer the higher totals are more likely in the whole band if it's further away the lower totals.
Yellow: 1-3" of Snow;
Blue: 3-5" of Snow;
Pink/Purple: 5-10" of Snow;
Orange: 10-15" of snow;

Bill that is a fantastic map the western edge of the precipitation field and the western edge of the heavy banding will be further west than what models are showing now. It almost always happens when you have a bombing low pressure system near the benchmark

Radz wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Sigh. Wishing on a snow flake...

They have Montauk on the expected snowfall for 8-12 and on the 10% chance on the upper end they have Montauk for 11 inches. That makes no sense.

Maybe taking mixing into consideration...

After the fact Radz I was thinking that.

I suppose the logic is if our areas N went high Probability and received 16-17 inches then Montauk would have mixing or rain concerns.