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Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

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Dunnzoo
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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 11, 2018 6:55 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
billg315 wrote:One thing I do worry somewhat about is snow sticking (I know this contradicts what I said earlier today). Temps are only going to hit freezing in many areas around daybreak Tuesday (if then), so it will need to be coming down at a decent clip to stick even without the sun angle issue at night. Then once the sun comes up Tuesday morning accumulation will be hindered in areas where its not heavy or a base didn't accumulate overnight. I'm never good at figuring this issue out so I'll have to just wait and see what happens.

If this storm does happen the one thing I've always liked about it is the timing.

If the bulk of the precip falls after sunset Monday (almost certain) and before 11am Tuesday likely, the sun angle will not be a factor.

Falling from 11am to 5pm this time of year is when it could affect totals in some areas.

agree with all of you, ace not sure why your thoughts about that are way they are but I respect ur analysis nonetheless, needless to say I hope your wrong lol
Well if you look impartially look at the system you can see the forecast problems with this set up.

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Post by amugs Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:09 pm

From our own Isotherm on the NAM and GFS.

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 9 1124x8y

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 9 2ly0lzo

If we can get the phase earlier as the NAM is showing then we MAY see a Navy type of reflection but a tad more east in my opinion.

March snow storms are usually difficult to the air mass involved. If it was early to mid Feb no brainier but not so with this one.
Not throwing in the trowel at all waiting to see when I wake up in the morning where we are at.

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Post by Guest Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:09 pm

Ryan I agree with some of what you’re saying but....the last storm the ground was waaaaaay warmer than it is now. By about 8-10 degrees and it snowed and accumulated after rain in the middle of the afternoon on all surfaces. Things are a lot different this time around. I’m actually not worried about it sticking

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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:14 pm

RGEM....East.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:23 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Ryan I agree with some of what you’re saying but....the last storm the ground was waaaaaay warmer than it is now. By about 8-10 degrees and it snowed and accumulated after rain in the middle of the afternoon on all surfaces. Things are a lot different this time around. I’m actually not worried about it sticking

I am going to freeze a cookie sheet to use as a snowboard to guarantee stickage! Lol Don't want to lose 1 iota of snow!

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:24 pm

Wow almost a non event even for Mass on the rgem, not good 18z runs. took a huge step backwards, not really anymore time to get it furthewr west than it was at 12z IMO, itd have come double now from 12z.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:25 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Ryan I agree with some of what you’re saying but....the last storm the ground was waaaaaay warmer than it is now. By about 8-10 degrees and it snowed and accumulated after rain in the middle of the afternoon on all surfaces. Things are a lot different this time around. I’m actually not worried about it sticking

I am going to freeze a cookie sheet to use as a snowboard to guarantee stickage! Lol Don't want to lose 1 iota of snow!
LOL good idea! Good measuring technique too.
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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:26 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Wow almost a non event even for Mass on the rgem, not good 18z runs.  took a huge step backwards, not really anymore time to get it furthewr west than it was at 12z IMO, itd have come double now from 12z.
You really have to stop living and dying by single deterministic model runs. There is still plenty of uncertainty at H5 for such a small lead time given the events progression. Though, historically, these events favor SNE north.
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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:27 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:RGEM....East.
scratch
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Post by Math23x7 Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:27 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Ryan I agree with some of what you’re saying but....the last storm the ground was waaaaaay warmer than it is now. By about 8-10 degrees and it snowed and accumulated after rain in the middle of the afternoon on all surfaces. Things are a lot different this time around. I’m actually not worried about it sticking

James, if I was with you right now, I would first tell you how the temperatures are above freezing and the snow rates are too low, two missing tools crucial to late season snowstorms. I would then quote Mickey from the Rocky film series (and say in his voice): "Now forget it kid, you got the heart, but you ain't got the tools no more, now forget it!"

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Post by Guest Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:27 pm

If it goes east I want it waaaaaaaay east so Red Sox Suck gets screwed too

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Post by sroc4 Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:33 pm

While the eastern shift may be real I still seriously doubt it. We are still a long way till game time. Plenty of room for wobbles. I’m sorry I haven’t been able answer questions earlier but I am spending time with the family. I will likely post a map in the morning.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:38 pm

And the NWS says...

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Briefings/11Mar2018-1.pdf

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by billg315 Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:41 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:And the NWS says...

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Briefings/11Mar2018-1.pdf
That’s pretty bullish considering how conservative they usually are.
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Post by Guest Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:47 pm

The NWS has the heaviest snow midnight thru 9 am. If that verifies there will be NO STICKING PROBLEMS. That’s an if. If these east trends don’t reverse tonight for the 0z runs then the NWS will change the winter storm watches to advisories tomorrow am or drop them all together

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Post by lglickman Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:48 pm

did you guys just get frank's email?

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:49 pm

Quietace wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Wow almost a non event even for Mass on the rgem, not good 18z runs.  took a huge step backwards, not really anymore time to get it furthewr west than it was at 12z IMO, itd have come double now from 12z.
You really have to stop living and dying by single deterministic model runs. There is still plenty of uncertainty at H5 for such a small lead time given the events progression. Though, historically, these events favor SNE north.
Ace, have you not seen my posts, I am speaking verbatim, not complaining that its the end all. JUST THAT RUN
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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:50 pm

lglickman wrote:did you guys just get frank's email?

Yep! Maybe it was on auto-send from earlier as it does not mention the most recent overview of model runs? Not sure.
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Post by aiannone Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:51 pm

SREF mean is 13.93" for ISP

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Post by billg315 Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:54 pm

Here is the NWS Mount Holly discussion issued at 7:32 pm. More geared to Philly and SNJ but covers part of our area (including me):
The main story for this period will be the next major east coast storm which is progged to move from off the southeast coast early Monday to a position south of Cape Cod by early Tuesday impacting the area with at least some rain, snow and wind. This will be another rapidly intensifying storm system carrying significant moisture and strong winds. While there is still
uncertainty regarding this storms impact on the forecast area, forecast models have begun to come into better agreement with the favored track to our east likely sparing the area the very heaviest precip so no Winter Storm Watch at this point. However, it will be close and a shift westward is still possible and could still bring heavy snow into the area.

In terms of the details, Monday starts off dry with clouds quickly lowering and thickening. As the low moves north, expect precip to break out south to north near midday into the afternoon. Temps aloft will be cold enough for snow,however diurnal heating will help surface temps get well into the 30s to near 40 so generally expect mainly rain during the day from around I-95 S/E with some rain/snow mix farther north and west...especially over the higher terrain where it could be mainly snow. These areas could see some minor accumulation by evening.

By Monday evening, rapidly intensifying low will be located east of Cape Hatteras and moving northeast. At this time, heavier precip will begin to move up the coast and adjacent waters. The loss of daytime heating along with evap cooling will lead to any rain or rain/snow mix changing to mainly snow from NW to SE around and after 0z. Again, the exact track the low takes along with surface temps (which will remain marginal) will determine how much snowfall occurs and since there is still uncertainty in this, forecast confidence is still not high regarding amounts. The GFS has remained fairly consistent with the NAM now matching it fairly closely and the GEM Regional now following fairly close as well. Forecast was weighted heavily on these models and less on Euro. The strong lift in the upper levels along with mid level F-gen forcing will result in bands of heavy precip that will likely be set up off shore but model consensus still suggests a quarter to half inch of QPF likely with this storm over roughly the eastern half of CWA. With the transition from any rain to all snow Monday evening this should yield a 2 to 4 inch snowfall by Tuesday mainly north and east of a Philly to Atlantic City line...highest amounts likely over higher terrain of N and NW NJ through Morris, Sussex, Warren Counties as well as into the southern Poconos. Remaining areas should see a coating up to a couple inches.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:55 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
lglickman wrote:did you guys just get frank's email?

Yep! Maybe it was on auto-send from earlier as it does not mention the most recent overview of model runs? Not sure.
Yeah that email is esentially what Frank said early this morning. Its odd it came in now.
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Post by Guest Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:59 pm

I got nothing

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Post by Grselig Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:01 pm

Since Frank wrote he was busy house hunting I don't think he had much time for analysis. I can wish and hope that this is current, but I bet its a mistake.
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Post by aiannone Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:08 pm

I didn’t get anything

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Post by Taffy Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:14 pm

NJ Strong Weather Forum
7:06 PM (1 hour ago)

to me
NJ Strong Members,

The threat of a Godzilla snowstorm this Monday night into Tuesday is increasing. I've laid out the facts about this storm on the forum. Today, we're seeing models drastically shift this storm west to bring significant snowfall into our area. I notice many TV Mets discounting this storm. While it's still possible it will stay out to sea, I am more confident it will actually be a hit. Please follow the model trends on the forum.

Regards,

Frank


For all who didn't receive it
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:17 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I got nothing

Me neither.

A message is being sent, by not receiving a message.
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Post by billg315 Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:22 pm

I think (but can’t confirm) that was Frank’s A.M. take on things. As he’s been busy today I don’t believe he has analyzed the afternoon runs.
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