Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
+34
Dunnzoo
jake732
Quietace
hurrysundown23
Radz
Taffy
adamfitz1969
heehaw453
CPcantmeasuresnow
frank 638
jimv45
Grselig
docstox12
amugs
aiannone
hyde345
jmanley32
SoulSingMG
algae888
mikeypizano
weatherwatchermom
Carter bk
SENJsnowman
gigs68
nutleyblizzard
Frank_Wx
rb924119
Dtone
skinsfan1177
SNOW MAN
cooladi
oldtimer
billg315
sroc4
38 posters
Page 9 of 13
Page 9 of 13 • 1, 2, 3 ... 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Well if you look impartially look at the system you can see the forecast problems with this set up.jmanley32 wrote:agree with all of you, ace not sure why your thoughts about that are way they are but I respect ur analysis nonetheless, needless to say I hope your wrong lolCPcantmeasuresnow wrote:billg315 wrote:One thing I do worry somewhat about is snow sticking (I know this contradicts what I said earlier today). Temps are only going to hit freezing in many areas around daybreak Tuesday (if then), so it will need to be coming down at a decent clip to stick even without the sun angle issue at night. Then once the sun comes up Tuesday morning accumulation will be hindered in areas where its not heavy or a base didn't accumulate overnight. I'm never good at figuring this issue out so I'll have to just wait and see what happens.
If this storm does happen the one thing I've always liked about it is the timing.
If the bulk of the precip falls after sunset Monday (almost certain) and before 11am Tuesday likely, the sun angle will not be a factor.
Falling from 11am to 5pm this time of year is when it could affect totals in some areas.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
- Posts : 3687
Join date : 2013-01-07
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
From our own Isotherm on the NAM and GFS.
If we can get the phase earlier as the NAM is showing then we MAY see a Navy type of reflection but a tad more east in my opinion.
March snow storms are usually difficult to the air mass involved. If it was early to mid Feb no brainier but not so with this one.
Not throwing in the trowel at all waiting to see when I wake up in the morning where we are at.
If we can get the phase earlier as the NAM is showing then we MAY see a Navy type of reflection but a tad more east in my opinion.
March snow storms are usually difficult to the air mass involved. If it was early to mid Feb no brainier but not so with this one.
Not throwing in the trowel at all waiting to see when I wake up in the morning where we are at.
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Join date : 2013-01-07
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Ryan I agree with some of what you’re saying but....the last storm the ground was waaaaaay warmer than it is now. By about 8-10 degrees and it snowed and accumulated after rain in the middle of the afternoon on all surfaces. Things are a lot different this time around. I’m actually not worried about it sticking
Guest- Guest
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
syosnow94 wrote:Ryan I agree with some of what you’re saying but....the last storm the ground was waaaaaay warmer than it is now. By about 8-10 degrees and it snowed and accumulated after rain in the middle of the afternoon on all surfaces. Things are a lot different this time around. I’m actually not worried about it sticking
I am going to freeze a cookie sheet to use as a snowboard to guarantee stickage! Lol Don't want to lose 1 iota of snow!
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4872
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Wow almost a non event even for Mass on the rgem, not good 18z runs. took a huge step backwards, not really anymore time to get it furthewr west than it was at 12z IMO, itd have come double now from 12z.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
LOL good idea! Good measuring technique too.Dunnzoo wrote:syosnow94 wrote:Ryan I agree with some of what you’re saying but....the last storm the ground was waaaaaay warmer than it is now. By about 8-10 degrees and it snowed and accumulated after rain in the middle of the afternoon on all surfaces. Things are a lot different this time around. I’m actually not worried about it sticking
I am going to freeze a cookie sheet to use as a snowboard to guarantee stickage! Lol Don't want to lose 1 iota of snow!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
You really have to stop living and dying by single deterministic model runs. There is still plenty of uncertainty at H5 for such a small lead time given the events progression. Though, historically, these events favor SNE north.jmanley32 wrote:Wow almost a non event even for Mass on the rgem, not good 18z runs. took a huge step backwards, not really anymore time to get it furthewr west than it was at 12z IMO, itd have come double now from 12z.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
- Posts : 3687
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 26
Location : Point Pleasant, NJ
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
SoulSingMG wrote:RGEM....East.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
- Posts : 3687
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 26
Location : Point Pleasant, NJ
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
syosnow94 wrote:Ryan I agree with some of what you’re saying but....the last storm the ground was waaaaaay warmer than it is now. By about 8-10 degrees and it snowed and accumulated after rain in the middle of the afternoon on all surfaces. Things are a lot different this time around. I’m actually not worried about it sticking
James, if I was with you right now, I would first tell you how the temperatures are above freezing and the snow rates are too low, two missing tools crucial to late season snowstorms. I would then quote Mickey from the Rocky film series (and say in his voice): "Now forget it kid, you got the heart, but you ain't got the tools no more, now forget it!"
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 2379
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
If it goes east I want it waaaaaaaay east so Red Sox Suck gets screwed too
Guest- Guest
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
While the eastern shift may be real I still seriously doubt it. We are still a long way till game time. Plenty of room for wobbles. I’m sorry I haven’t been able answer questions earlier but I am spending time with the family. I will likely post a map in the morning.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
And the NWS says...
https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Briefings/11Mar2018-1.pdf
https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Briefings/11Mar2018-1.pdf
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4872
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
That’s pretty bullish considering how conservative they usually are.Dunnzoo wrote:And the NWS says...
https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Briefings/11Mar2018-1.pdf
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
The NWS has the heaviest snow midnight thru 9 am. If that verifies there will be NO STICKING PROBLEMS. That’s an if. If these east trends don’t reverse tonight for the 0z runs then the NWS will change the winter storm watches to advisories tomorrow am or drop them all together
Guest- Guest
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
did you guys just get frank's email?
lglickman- Posts : 8
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-02-11
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Ace, have you not seen my posts, I am speaking verbatim, not complaining that its the end all. JUST THAT RUNQuietace wrote:You really have to stop living and dying by single deterministic model runs. There is still plenty of uncertainty at H5 for such a small lead time given the events progression. Though, historically, these events favor SNE north.jmanley32 wrote:Wow almost a non event even for Mass on the rgem, not good 18z runs. took a huge step backwards, not really anymore time to get it furthewr west than it was at 12z IMO, itd have come double now from 12z.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
lglickman wrote:did you guys just get frank's email?
Yep! Maybe it was on auto-send from earlier as it does not mention the most recent overview of model runs? Not sure.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
SREF mean is 13.93" for ISP
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Here is the NWS Mount Holly discussion issued at 7:32 pm. More geared to Philly and SNJ but covers part of our area (including me):
The main story for this period will be the next major east coast storm which is progged to move from off the southeast coast early Monday to a position south of Cape Cod by early Tuesday impacting the area with at least some rain, snow and wind. This will be another rapidly intensifying storm system carrying significant moisture and strong winds. While there is still
uncertainty regarding this storms impact on the forecast area, forecast models have begun to come into better agreement with the favored track to our east likely sparing the area the very heaviest precip so no Winter Storm Watch at this point. However, it will be close and a shift westward is still possible and could still bring heavy snow into the area.
In terms of the details, Monday starts off dry with clouds quickly lowering and thickening. As the low moves north, expect precip to break out south to north near midday into the afternoon. Temps aloft will be cold enough for snow,however diurnal heating will help surface temps get well into the 30s to near 40 so generally expect mainly rain during the day from around I-95 S/E with some rain/snow mix farther north and west...especially over the higher terrain where it could be mainly snow. These areas could see some minor accumulation by evening.
By Monday evening, rapidly intensifying low will be located east of Cape Hatteras and moving northeast. At this time, heavier precip will begin to move up the coast and adjacent waters. The loss of daytime heating along with evap cooling will lead to any rain or rain/snow mix changing to mainly snow from NW to SE around and after 0z. Again, the exact track the low takes along with surface temps (which will remain marginal) will determine how much snowfall occurs and since there is still uncertainty in this, forecast confidence is still not high regarding amounts. The GFS has remained fairly consistent with the NAM now matching it fairly closely and the GEM Regional now following fairly close as well. Forecast was weighted heavily on these models and less on Euro. The strong lift in the upper levels along with mid level F-gen forcing will result in bands of heavy precip that will likely be set up off shore but model consensus still suggests a quarter to half inch of QPF likely with this storm over roughly the eastern half of CWA. With the transition from any rain to all snow Monday evening this should yield a 2 to 4 inch snowfall by Tuesday mainly north and east of a Philly to Atlantic City line...highest amounts likely over higher terrain of N and NW NJ through Morris, Sussex, Warren Counties as well as into the southern Poconos. Remaining areas should see a coating up to a couple inches.
The main story for this period will be the next major east coast storm which is progged to move from off the southeast coast early Monday to a position south of Cape Cod by early Tuesday impacting the area with at least some rain, snow and wind. This will be another rapidly intensifying storm system carrying significant moisture and strong winds. While there is still
uncertainty regarding this storms impact on the forecast area, forecast models have begun to come into better agreement with the favored track to our east likely sparing the area the very heaviest precip so no Winter Storm Watch at this point. However, it will be close and a shift westward is still possible and could still bring heavy snow into the area.
In terms of the details, Monday starts off dry with clouds quickly lowering and thickening. As the low moves north, expect precip to break out south to north near midday into the afternoon. Temps aloft will be cold enough for snow,however diurnal heating will help surface temps get well into the 30s to near 40 so generally expect mainly rain during the day from around I-95 S/E with some rain/snow mix farther north and west...especially over the higher terrain where it could be mainly snow. These areas could see some minor accumulation by evening.
By Monday evening, rapidly intensifying low will be located east of Cape Hatteras and moving northeast. At this time, heavier precip will begin to move up the coast and adjacent waters. The loss of daytime heating along with evap cooling will lead to any rain or rain/snow mix changing to mainly snow from NW to SE around and after 0z. Again, the exact track the low takes along with surface temps (which will remain marginal) will determine how much snowfall occurs and since there is still uncertainty in this, forecast confidence is still not high regarding amounts. The GFS has remained fairly consistent with the NAM now matching it fairly closely and the GEM Regional now following fairly close as well. Forecast was weighted heavily on these models and less on Euro. The strong lift in the upper levels along with mid level F-gen forcing will result in bands of heavy precip that will likely be set up off shore but model consensus still suggests a quarter to half inch of QPF likely with this storm over roughly the eastern half of CWA. With the transition from any rain to all snow Monday evening this should yield a 2 to 4 inch snowfall by Tuesday mainly north and east of a Philly to Atlantic City line...highest amounts likely over higher terrain of N and NW NJ through Morris, Sussex, Warren Counties as well as into the southern Poconos. Remaining areas should see a coating up to a couple inches.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Yeah that email is esentially what Frank said early this morning. Its odd it came in now.SoulSingMG wrote:lglickman wrote:did you guys just get frank's email?
Yep! Maybe it was on auto-send from earlier as it does not mention the most recent overview of model runs? Not sure.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Since Frank wrote he was busy house hunting I don't think he had much time for analysis. I can wish and hope that this is current, but I bet its a mistake.
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1407
Reputation : 140
Join date : 2013-03-04
Age : 54
Location : Wayne NJ
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
I didn’t get anything
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
NJ Strong Weather Forum
7:06 PM (1 hour ago)
to me
NJ Strong Members,
The threat of a Godzilla snowstorm this Monday night into Tuesday is increasing. I've laid out the facts about this storm on the forum. Today, we're seeing models drastically shift this storm west to bring significant snowfall into our area. I notice many TV Mets discounting this storm. While it's still possible it will stay out to sea, I am more confident it will actually be a hit. Please follow the model trends on the forum.
Regards,
Frank
For all who didn't receive it
7:06 PM (1 hour ago)
to me
NJ Strong Members,
The threat of a Godzilla snowstorm this Monday night into Tuesday is increasing. I've laid out the facts about this storm on the forum. Today, we're seeing models drastically shift this storm west to bring significant snowfall into our area. I notice many TV Mets discounting this storm. While it's still possible it will stay out to sea, I am more confident it will actually be a hit. Please follow the model trends on the forum.
Regards,
Frank
For all who didn't receive it
Taffy- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 530
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-10-06
Location : Hopkinton, MA
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
syosnow94 wrote:I got nothing
Me neither.
A message is being sent, by not receiving a message.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7265
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
I think (but can’t confirm) that was Frank’s A.M. take on things. As he’s been busy today I don’t believe he has analyzed the afternoon runs.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
Page 9 of 13 • 1, 2, 3 ... 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13
Page 9 of 13
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum