Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

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Post by algae888 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:34 am

The nam is a miss for most of the area except central li and east so is the hi res nam
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:34 am

syosnow94 wrote:He’s doing it on purpose mom. Hopefully he saw the NAM and passed out
Ha ha made bf for boys made cup of tea and came back to birds chirping..lol
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Post by rb924119 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:34 am

Nah, something came up. It was actually not nearly as good as I thought, unfortunately. Too much separation at H5 still

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:37 am

rb924119 wrote:Nah, something came up. It was actually not nearly as good as I thought, unfortunately. Too much separation at H5 still
Tx rb
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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:37 am

How does the NAM go from nuclear to miss in the same run?

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:42 am

To me it looked like the NAM showed improvements at H5. It really looked like the northern stream was going into full phase mode with the southern low. Instead it kicked the low east. A met from another board pointed that out and thinks the NAM surface map might not of caught up to the H5 map.
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Post by oldtimer on Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:43 am

The Euro is going wind up to be the solution Just think this thing reorganizes in New England All the METS leaning that way

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Post by SoulSingMG on Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:51 am

oldtimer wrote:The Euro is going wind up to be the solution  Just think this thing reorganizes in New England  All the METS leaning that way

Agreed. This has eastern New England special written all over it which is what the Mets I put stock into are saying. 12z runs should continue the NAM's theme.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:53 am

The names precip did shift west from ending at ri ma border to we'll into CT I'd say that's pretty big shift. 3km at 06z had little and now has at least advisory snow into NYC. It's not a miss just not a Godzilla and I do not think we done. Stef showed 10 to 12.
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Post by hyde345 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:54 am

algae888 wrote:The nam is a miss for most of the area except central li and east so is the hi res nam

It is not a total miss, you just don't get into heaviest precip the further north and especially west you are. It still gives HV 1-3/2-4 type event.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:55 am

Long island sees 15 inches on 3km NYC 4. Wow I'm start dis like li lol
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Post by SoulSingMG on Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:56 am

jmanley32 wrote:The names precip did shift west from ending at ri ma border to we'll into CT I'd say that's pretty big shift. 3km at 06z had little and now has at least advisory snow into NYC. It's not a miss just not a Godzilla and I do not think we done. Stef showed 10 to 12.

We cannot just rely on the SREF's. Every other model shows only a glancing blow at best for the area with a big storm from the cape up thru Maine. They'll likely get blizzard warnings tomorrow.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:58 am

Extremely busy today shopping for apartments. Will have a blog and 1st call snow map out tonight.

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Post by aiannone on Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:59 am

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 2 6ac25b10
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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:01 am

Folks keep in mind a 3-6” event this time of year is very good!

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Post by amugs on Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:02 am

Sroc great write up.
NAM at H5 made improvements - it is a matter of about 6 hours for a full phase and that will pull the center back towards the coast bring the heavier snow axis back.
If the srefs are onto something that would be great.
Euro playing catch up IMO with its evolution still at H5.
NAM was a hair away again from a bomb.
Off hour ARW model was a BD redux.
This is a big shift west!
Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 2 9FDE5FCD-E91B-4566-A8EF-4B33A27CFFC0.thumb.gif.95b87c022cd801d2f910a6fe87395d27

We needs another improvement on the models for 12Z and 18Z being the northern energy phasing in with the Southern energy sooner and then it is bigly game on for this board.
Are we trending back to teh original storm depiction from earlier in the week? I hope so and that is what prompted Frank to be calling this potential.

One thing is pretty certain LI gets teh goods once again so it seems on these runs.



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Post by algae888 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:03 am

This is always been in Eastern New England storm and maybe Central Long Island East the northern vort is just not digging enough
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:04 am

syosnow94 wrote:Folks keep in mind a 3-6” event this time of year is very good!
ya u say that cuz it has u getting 12 to 18 congrats it's ur storm. I'm not giving up yet.
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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:05 am

People I’m hoping like we all are. But what I keep hearing is we need this, we need that, if only this and so on. It’s becoming pretty clear this won’t be a huge deal for us. Lets resist the temptation to wishcast and accept a 4-6” event which I’ll sign for right now

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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:07 am

Not true Jman the highest I’ve seen imby on the models is 8”. Out east by Scott is a foot perhaps. Still overdone imho

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Post by mikeypizano on Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:09 am

syosnow94 wrote:People I’m hoping like we all are. But what I keep hearing is we need this, we need that,  if only this and so on. It’s becoming pretty clear this won’t be a huge deal for us. Lets resist the temptation to wishcast and accept a 4-6” event which I’ll sign for right now

Unless you live inland such as me... Razz
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Post by docstox12 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:18 am

aiannone wrote:Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 2 6ac25b10

Looks like an LI , NE special on that run.I'll be happy to get the 4 inches on that map.A few days ago, this was all OTS.
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Post by rb924119 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:20 am

I'm done with this storm. We aren't seeing the magnitude of the changes that we need to be saying to get us all involved in a big way, save for the immediate coasts, LI, and New England. Sorry folks, but my towel is in had, and I'm winding up for the pitch.

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Post by SoulSingMG on Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:23 am

rb924119 wrote:I'm done with this storm. We aren't seeing the magnitude of the changes that we need to be saying to get us all involved in a big way, save for the immediate coasts, LI, and New England. Sorry folks, but my towel is in had, and I'm winding up for the pitch.

It was never our storm, really. I beat a dead horse but @crankywxguy laid this all out two days ago (posted link in last thread). It does make me selfishly sad that eastern New England will cash in. If we can't have it, I don't want anyone to have it! Lol.
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:24 am

[quote="syosnow94"]Folks keep in mind a 3-6” event this time of year is very good![/quote


Any snow in March to me is a gift...
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