Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by billg315 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:00 pm

I’m not saying we’re getting a Godzilla but I do believe something is askew with the model when it shows several hours of precip and virtually no qpf. Heck it could be the qpf is right and surface depiction is wrong (although none of the forecasts I’ve seen this evening have snow totals that low). But something ain’t right either way.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:01 pm

billg315 wrote:I’m not saying we’re getting a Godzilla but I do believe something is askew with the model when it shows several hours of precip and virtually no qpf. Heck it could be the qpf is right and surface depiction is wrong (although none of the forecasts I’ve seen this evening have snow totals that low). But something ain’t right either way.
Actually 14 hrs over southern westchester on 3km and your go tell me 0.2 qpf falls, yeah right. Your right these maps are good for nothing.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by mmanisca on Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:21 pm

If it doesn’t snow hard enough in March it doesn’t accumulate.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:46 pm

mmanisca wrote:If it doesn’t snow hard enough in March it doesn’t accumulate.

It does at night without any problems.

It does during the daytime too as long as it's not above freezing which during the last two storms it has been during the day in many places. That's a bad combination for accumulating snow almost anytime but especially during daylight in March and beyond
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by adamfitz1969 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:00 am

Something isn't adding up..these models all too East, yet we have seen time and again late Westward trends....this storm is closer West than what models are showing.

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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:07 am

Ooz gfs basically didn't change at all at surface.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:12 am

Cmc is a big shift east but it didn't displace the precip. I think sroc was right in saying g5 is not being shown at the surface. This may be another nowcast.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:11 am

Our only hope is all models are chasing convection. I don’t buy it. LOVE MY MAP for the event more and more
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:21 am

Upton lowered amounts over LI by 1” in their latest update. Only Suffolk County under a warning Rest of the area 2-5” although my point and click says 4-8”. I’m r2 miles from the warning.

Red Sox Suck upped amounts to 16-24”. Oh well
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:09 am

Wow well one post since last night pretty much sums it up. Got a wwa for 2 to 4.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:17 am

Bring on spring !!!
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by docstox12 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:53 am

jmanley32 wrote:Wow well one post since last night pretty much sums it up. Got a wwa for 2 to 4.

I'll take that 2-4 gladly when a few days ago, NWS had me for nada.This might possibly be it fir the winter, so I will enjoy it and watch it add to my nearly 18 inch snowpack here.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by Taffy on Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:58 am

At least I got one of these  Morning all!


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. * WHEN...FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT TUESDAY. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS, INCLUDING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON TUESDAY. BE PREPARED FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. CHECK LOCAL DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION INFORMATION SERVICES FOR THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS. &&
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:01 am

The trends last night weren’t horrible but they were only a marginal improvement. I still wouldn’t be shocked to see someone in Long Island get a foot the further east the higher the chance. If we could get into some heavy banding over parts of the area from NYC NORTH for a couple of hours 6 inches ISNT of the question IMO. This storm is strong enough that it will still suprise and my guess would be it will surprise on the upside.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by Scullybutcher on Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:07 am

This is mine. They backed down the totals a little.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PMEDT TUESDAY

* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES ARE EXPECTED.


* WHERE...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEAST NEW
YORK.


* WHEN...FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by docstox12 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:24 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote: The trends last night weren’t horrible but they were only a  marginal improvement. I still wouldn’t be shocked to see someone in Long Island get a foot the further east the higher the chance. If we could get into some heavy banding over parts of the area from NYC NORTH for a couple of hours 6 inches ISNT  of the question IMO.  This storm is strong enough that it will still suprise and my guess would be it will surprise on the upside.

It might surprise, CP, but the facts now are showing you and I are not going to be anywhere near the heavy totals like we were on the last storm.This one is a New England special, bombing out too late for you and me.Central on east LI looks to get a good one.Miller B's tend to favor the S and E sections of our area and NE.The storm will not phase properly in time for us.Like I said before, I'll be glad to get 2 to 4 and enjoy another snowy day tomorrow.Time is running out fast now.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:33 am

As per Don Sutherland

"March storms in which Red Sox Suck receives 10” or more snow and NYC receives less than 4” snow are uncommon. Since 1950, only the March 15-16, 1967 and the March 31-April 1, 1997 snowstorms met those criteria."

I was to young to remember the March 1967 storm but I remember the April 1 1997 very well. We received over a foot of heavy wet snow here which took down a tree in my backyard.

We shall see if this is number 3. Hoping NYC can go 4 plus so it isn't.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:39 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:As per Don Sutherland

"March storms in which Red Sox Suck receives 10” or more snow and NYC receives less than 4” snow are uncommon. Since 1950, only the March 15-16, 1967 and the March 31-April 1, 1997 snowstorms met those criteria."

I was to young to remember the March 1967 storm but I remember the April 1 1997 very well. We received over a foot of heavy wet snow here which took down a tree in my backyard.

We shall see if this is number 3. Hoping NYC can go 4 plus so it isn't.

Of course the othe possibility is NYC is going to get 2 or 3 and Red Sox Suck is going to get less than currently forecasted and screwed over somehow (maybe mixing) - as they do seem to underperform their predicted totals pretty frequently.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:46 am

I almost don’t want to change my first call snow map because it’s really close to where my thinking still is, just on the lower end of my ranges. I’d basically just be shifting my lines a few miles east uniformly just so my expected totals are more mid range than bottom of range. But I may put out a final map later this morning anyway. I’ll give the models one more round. At this time of year any snow map might be your last snow map until next winter, so might as well tweak it one final time.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:15 am

billg315 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:As per Don Sutherland

"March storms in which Red Sox Suck receives 10” or more snow and NYC receives less than 4” snow are uncommon. Since 1950, only the March 15-16, 1967 and the March 31-April 1, 1997 snowstorms met those criteria."

I was to young to remember the March 1967 storm but I remember the April 1 1997 very well. We received over a foot of heavy wet snow here which took down a tree in my backyard.

We shall see if this is number 3. Hoping NYC can go 4 plus so it isn't.

Of course the othe possibility is NYC is going to get 2 or 3 and Red Sox Suck is going to get less than currently forecasted and screwed over somehow (maybe mixing) - as they do seem to underperform their predicted totals pretty frequently.

Oh do I agree with that. Some here like to tout predicted totals you know where that never seem to come close to the predictions but they never look at the final results. Not one has come close to the pre storm predicted totals this year. This one may be different but we will find out tomorrow night.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:22 am

Here is my first and likely only call. If the track shifts E/W the lines shift accordingly. I created a separate thread for snow maps and final totals. I will unlock it tomorrow morning for everyone to post their FINAL totals in. This way Ray has all the info he needs in one spot for his project. Cheers. drunken



_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:24 am

If anyone other than Bill and Jimmy have posted a map earlier please post it again and ill move it into the other post, and or if you would like to post a map do so and Ill get it in there as well.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:28 am

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote: The trends last night weren’t horrible but they were only a  marginal improvement. I still wouldn’t be shocked to see someone in Long Island get a foot the further east the higher the chance. If we could get into some heavy banding over parts of the area from NYC NORTH for a couple of hours 6 inches ISNT  of the question IMO.  This storm is strong enough that it will still suprise and my guess would be it will surprise on the upside.

It might surprise, CP, but the facts now are showing you and I are not going to be anywhere near the heavy totals like we were on the last storm.This one is a New England special, bombing out too late for you and me.Central on east LI looks to get a good one.Miller B's tend to favor the S and E sections of our area and NE.The storm will not phase properly in time for us.Like I said before, I'll be glad to get 2 to 4 and enjoy another snowy day tomorrow.Time is running out fast now.

Not ever thinking this was our storm Doc. like you say sitting pretty here with 18 inches still OTG so no pressure for this one at all, anything at all from this is gravy. I'm hoping this over performs for NYC and east. Would like NYC to go over 30 for the season, they only need 3 more inches to do it, which would make it 5 straight years for only the second time in history. Considering how mild some of the recent winters have been that would be quite extraordinary,
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:36 am

Latest NWS map FWIW:


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:38 am


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

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