March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by aiannone on Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:46 am

FWIW:

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:49 am

Math23x7 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:12K slight improved aloft...3K looking better aloft as well.

Both increased snowfall amounts

12-km NAM actually decreased snow totals for NYC.  The 3-km NAM techincally "increased" snow totals, but it's barely noticeable on the map.

Stick a fork in it...

It increased totals on LI and CT

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by frank 638 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:51 am

What about NYC esp the Bronx and queens

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:52 am

frank 638 wrote:What about NYC esp the Bronx and queens

C-2"

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:54 am

A few inches at best
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:13 am

RGEM


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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by RJB8525 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:20 am

facepalm
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:24 am

Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM



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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:31 am

Ok. Almost didn't bother, but want to be as close to accurate as possible. Sooooo without futher ado, my final call snow map (*crickets*). Just shifted everything about 30 miles east or so more or less with a few tweaks around the edges.

Yellow: 1-3"
Blue: 3-5"
Purple/Pink: 5-10"
Orange: 10-15"
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by Smittyaj623 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:45 am

Man oh man...

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:00 pm

billg315 wrote:Ok. Almost didn't bother, but want to be as close to accurate as possible. Sooooo without futher ado, my final call snow map (*crickets*). Just shifted everything about 30 miles east or so more or less with a few tweaks around the edges.

Yellow: 1-3"
Blue: 3-5"
Purple/Pink: 5-10"
Orange: 10-15"

Now it’s basically my map from 24 hours ago tongue
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:06 pm

Well, wasn't expecting much anyway, we are below average for the season and really didn't think we would get there after the way things have been this winter. Syo, drinks are on you if you get the goods this time!

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:07 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Ok. Almost didn't bother, but want to be as close to accurate as possible. Sooooo without futher ado, my final call snow map (*crickets*). Just shifted everything about 30 miles east or so more or less with a few tweaks around the edges.

Yellow: 1-3"
Blue: 3-5"
Purple/Pink: 5-10"
Orange: 10-15"

Now it’s basically my map from 24 hours ago tongue

lol. Yep, no doubt. You were (again) on the money with this one!
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by aiannone on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:07 pm

GFS is about .6-.75" of liquid for suffolk county on east
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:11 pm

aiannone wrote:GFS is about .6-.75" of liquid for suffolk county on east

At 8:1 that’s 5-6”. Very low end warning criteria. I actually think the NWS shrinkS theIR advisories And trim totals by another 1-2” at their early evening advisories
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by aiannone on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:13 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
aiannone wrote:GFS is about .6-.75" of liquid for suffolk county on east

At 8:1 that’s 5-6”. Very low end warning criteria.  I actually think the NWS shrinkS theIR advisories And trim totals by another 1-2” at their early evening advisories

I think the warnings stay out and suffolk. That would support the 4-7" warning they have out right now
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by amugs on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:17 pm

JMA woudl be nuts if it verified - maybe seeing the western shift?


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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by aiannone on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:28 pm

Upton just reissued warnings. Upped the lower end up an inch. Now 5-7" for western suffolk 6-9" with localized 12" in eastern suffolk. GFS supports that. .7" in western suffolk and .9-1.0" in eastern suffolk which at a temp between 33-34* that equates to about 5-7" for western suffolk and 8-12" for eastern suffolk which supports their warning exactly.
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by nutleyblizzard on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:37 pm

             
Hmm. Trough going negative early???


Last edited by nutleyblizzard on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:49 pm; edited 3 times in total
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by amugs on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:37 pm

aiannone wrote:Upton just reissued warnings. Upped the lower end up an inch. Now 5-7" for western suffolk 6-9" with localized 12" in eastern suffolk. GFS supports that. .7" in western suffolk and .9-1.0" in eastern suffolk which at a temp between 33-34* that equates to about 5-7" for western suffolk and 8-12" for eastern suffolk which supports their warning exactly.

They are seeing the slight westward shift - UKIE is out in about 5 minutes from meteocenter with precip - word on the boards is it looks to have come west with another jog - how much we'll soon know. This maybe one of the most frustrating storms.

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:39 pm

My point and click forecast which is IDENTICAL to Scott’s in Wasing river 30 miles away. He’s under a warning in eastern Suffolk I’m under an advisory in extreme eastern Nassau. It doesn’t line up?

TonightSnow, mainly after 1am. Low around 32. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. North wind 10 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
TuesdaySnow before 5pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow. High near 39. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. Breezy, with a northwest wind 18 to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by Math23x7 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:53 pm

The 12Z GEFS is west but too little too late...

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:54 pm

It’s never too late folks. Let’s keep er coming left
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by aiannone on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:57 pm

OHHHH CANADA!!!!! <33333


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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:57 pm


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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

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